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New York closed, pending home sales jump in December
CNY sales also rise ALBANY, N.Y. — New York realtors sold 15,417 previously-owned homes in December, up about 34.5 percent from 11,461 homes sold in the year-ago month. Pending sales in December also jumped. That’s according to the New York State Association of Realtors (NYSAR)’s December housing-market report, which was issued on Jan. 22. […]
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CNY sales also rise
ALBANY, N.Y. — New York realtors sold 15,417 previously-owned homes in December, up about 34.5 percent from 11,461 homes sold in the year-ago month. Pending sales in December also jumped.
That’s according to the New York State Association of Realtors (NYSAR)’s December housing-market report, which was issued on Jan. 22.
“Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, real estate activity in the Empire State continued to rise with sales and new listings remaining strong through December,” NYSAR said in the report.
Sales data
Pending sales totaled nearly 10,967 in December, up 37.3 percent from pending sales of 7,985 in the same month in 2019, according to the NYSAR data.
The December 2020 statewide median sales price was $350,000, up about 22 percent from $286,000 in December 2019.
The months’ supply of homes for sale at the end of December stood at 3.3 months, down from 4.6 months at the end of December 2019, per NYSAR’s report. A 6-month to 6.5-month supply is considered to be a balanced market, per the association.
The number of homes for sale totaled 40,836 in December, a decrease of about 22 percent from 52,743 homes a year before. However, the state had 8,955 new listings in December, up 10 percent from 8,131 in December 2019.
Central New York data
Realtors in Onondaga County sold 572 previously owned homes in December, up 30 percent from the 439 homes sold in the same month in 2019. The median sales price rose about 4 percent to $165,000 from more than $159,000 a year earlier, according to the NYSAR report.
The association also reports that realtors sold 194 homes in Oneida County in December, up about 11 percent compared to the 175 sold during December 2019. The median sales price increased 14 percent to $155,000 from $136,000 a year prior.
Realtors in Broome County sold 179 existing homes in December, up over 11 percent from 161 a year ago, according to the NYSAR report. The median sales price rose 29 percent to $145,000 from more than $112,000 a year before.
In Jefferson County, realtors closed on 153 homes in December, up about 76 percent from 87 a year ago, and the median sales price of $175,000 was up more than 14 percent from $153,000 a year earlier, according to the NYSAR data.
All home-sales data is compiled from multiple-listing services in New York state and it includes townhomes and condominiums in addition to existing single-family homes, according to NYSAR.
New York manufacturing index dips in January, but still shows growth
Firms also remained optimistic about the future The Empire State Manufacturing survey general business-conditions index slipped more than point to 3.5 in January as the monthly gauge of New York’s manufacturing sector continue to point to modest growth. The survey’s January index reading — based on firms responding to the survey — indicates
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Firms also remained optimistic about the future
The Empire State Manufacturing survey general business-conditions index slipped more than point to 3.5 in January as the monthly gauge of New York’s manufacturing sector continue to point to modest growth.
The survey’s January index reading — based on firms responding to the survey — indicates business activity was “little changed” in New York, the New York Fed said.
A positive reading indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity, while a negative index number points to a decline in the sector.
The survey found 27 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 23 percent indicated that conditions had worsened, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its Jan. 15 survey report.
Survey details
The new-orders index rose three points to 6.6, indicating a “small” increase in orders, and the shipments index fell to 7.3, pointing to a “modest” increase in shipments. Delivery times were “somewhat longer,” and inventories held steady.
The index for number of employees fell 3 points to 11.2, a level pointing to ongoing gains in employment. The average-workweek index was little changed at 6.3, signaling another small increase in hours worked. The prices-paid index rose 8 points to 45.5, “its highest level in two years, indicating a pickup in input price increases.” This index has risen a cumulative 41 points since May.
The prices-received index climbed 5 points to 15.2, its highest mark in a year, “pointing to an acceleration in selling prices.”
Future indicators
The Empire State survey’s index for future business conditions came in at 31.9, suggesting that firms “remained optimistic” about future conditions. The indexes for future new orders and shipments were “positive and slightly higher” than December’s readings, per the survey report.
Employment levels and the average workweek are expected to continue to increase in the months ahead. The capital-expenditures index came in at 17.9, and the technology-spending index moved down to 13.1.
The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.
NO NONSENSE MARKETING: What do customers expect from salespeople?
The game has changed We all know what we expect from customers — or at least we think we do. We want them to give us their attention, give us a fair hearing, and be open to our recommendations, and pay what they owe us. Some customers live up to this standard and some don’t make the
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The game has changed
We all know what we expect from customers — or at least we think we do. We want them to give us their attention, give us a fair hearing, and be open to our recommendations, and pay what they owe us. Some customers live up to this standard and some don’t make the cut. Just about everyone in sales also works at making sure customers like them, the cornerstone of a good relationship.
That’s not all. They also expect customers to be frank and open, even though some have an agenda they keep well hidden, leaving us guessing and suspicious.
Whether accurate or not, most sales reps expect buyers to believe their representations are in the customer’s best interest. All this shouldn’t be surprising to anyone in sales, since this is how most reps like to think of themselves.
What customers expect from sales reps
Even so, all this is only half the story. What’s missing is at least equally or more important today when it comes to success in sales. In other words, it’s time to ask, “In the current state of the economy and what consumers have been going through the past year of the pandemic, what do customers expect from salespeople?”
1. Customers want to do business with someone who understands them.
Working with a salesperson is like dating, except for one major difference. The conversation goes from “Hi, I’m Bob. Should we get married now, or see how things go in the next seven minutes?” If customers are going to spend time with you, they expect some indication of “instant friendship” or compatibility that tells them it’s going to be OK. They’re going to be comfortable. This is what people mean when they say, “That’s a great salesperson.” If this message isn’t clear, they’re gone.
2. Customers expect a salesperson to be responsive to their situation.
Or, to put it another way, many customers want to tell you their “story” as the way for you to understand and help them. Don’t cut them short and plow ahead with your own spiel. If you do, they will be offended and feel rejected. Most customers know what they want to say, but they may not know how to express it. They are hoping that you will figure it out. If you do, they will reward you by giving you the sale.
3. Patience sends the message to customers that you want the sale.
It’s not what you say, but how you act that demonstrates you get it. If you do, then it’s time to slow down, both in terms of your manner and how fast you are speaking. It takes time for information to sink in. That’s why consumers don’t want to be rushed or pushed. While they may have tolerated some nudging, or even a little push in the past, but not now. “This is a great price, but the inventory is tight,” says the rep. That was a year ago, but not now. No matter what it is, consumers will find what they want at a price they want to pay sitting in their sweats in front of a screen.
4. Customers expect salespeople to be reliable.
Or, to put it more accurately, there are no second chances; customers don’t come crawling back. They know their options, and they’re not alone. Social networking is empowering. They trust their friends, relatives, and neighbors, which just happens to be an interesting description of small communities, places where people watch out for each other. When a salesperson gets a bad reputation, the news spreads like a virus.
5. Customers expect salespeople to be a resource.
But there is only one reason Jeff Bezos’s Amazon is one of the largest retailers in the world: consumers are suckers for convenience (read: immediate gratification). Something happens in the human brain when we see the words, “You’ll have it tomorrow.” But there is another part of the brain that pulls toward “due diligence,” taking responsibility for making good decisions. Finding a salesperson who fuels that desire by sharing their knowledge and expertise, along with a give-and-take, is immensely rewarding.
6. They expect you to be candid with them.
Some people in sales think it takes painting a perfect picture of what they’re selling to make the sale. It isn’t. Everyone knows nothing is perfect. What’s refreshing is when a salesperson says, “This is a terrific product. My customers are more than satisfied with it, but it’s important that you follow the periodic service instructions. If you like, we’ll send you reminders.” Customers equate candor with honesty and transparency.
7. Customers expect follow-through.
It’s a useful way to judge a salesperson’s performance before signing the order. “I’ll get back to you late this afternoon with answers to your questions,” says a smiling sales rep, who gets busy and forgets about it and then blames it on someone else. Whatever picture the customer had of the salesperson changed, and not for the better.
All of this may come across as unnecessarily obvious to both customers and sales reps. Perhaps. But even physicians can turn their backs on the Hippocratic Oath to “do no harm,” and some salespeople play by their own rules, which may not be life-threatening, but do harm, nevertheless, both to themselves and their customers.
John Graham of GrahamComm is a marketing and sales strategy consultant and business writer. He is the creator of “Magnet Marketing,” and publishes a free monthly eBulletin, “No Nonsense Marketing & Sales Ideas.” Contact him at jgraham@grahamcomm.com or visit johnrgraham.com
Community Bank’s Q4 net income rises nearly 9 percent
DeWITT, N.Y. — Community Bank System, Inc. (NYSE: CBU) recently reported that its net income rose nearly 9 percent to $46.5 million in the fourth quarter from $42.9 million in the year-prior period. The DeWitt–based banking company’s earnings per share (EPS) increased to 86 cents a share from 82 cents a year ago. The increase
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DeWITT, N.Y. — Community Bank System, Inc. (NYSE: CBU) recently reported that its net income rose nearly 9 percent to $46.5 million in the fourth quarter from $42.9 million in the year-prior period.
The DeWitt–based banking company’s earnings per share (EPS) increased to 86 cents a share from 82 cents a year ago. The increase in earnings per share was driven by a rise in net interest income, a decrease in the provision for credit losses, slightly reduced operating expenses, and a small increase in noninterest revenue. That was partially offset by higher income taxes and an increase in shares outstanding, according to Community Bank’s Jan. 25 earnings report.
Community Bank posted operating EPS of 85 cents in the fourth quarter, up 2 cents from the year-earlier quarter. That beat the consensus analysts’ estimate of 77 cents a share, according to Zacks Equity Research. It’s the fourth straight quarter in which the banking company beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Community Bank generated revenue of nearly $151 million in the latest quarter, up slightly from just under $150 million in the fourth quarter of 2019.
“The company generated very strong earnings results in 2020 despite the significant and persistent challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and related market conditions throughout the year,” Mark E. Tryniski, president and CEO of Community Bank System, said in the earnings report. “Strong asset quality leading into the pandemic, a tremendous core deposit base and diversified revenue streams, including year over year revenue increases in the company’s nonbanking businesses, demonstrated the strength and resiliency of the company’s business model. The strength of our nonbanking businesses became increasingly evident as the pandemic ran its course during 2020.”
Community Bank reported net interest income of $93.4 million in the fourth quarter, a nearly 1 percent increase over the year-prior period. The rise was driven by a 22.7 percent increase in average earning assets between the periods, offset, in part by a 0.66 percent decrease in the net interest margin. The increase in earning assets was led by large net inflows of funds from government stimulus programs, Paycheck Protection Program loan originations, and the acquisition of Steuben Trust Corp. in the second quarter of 2020.
Community Bank System recorded a $3.1 million net benefit in the provision for credit losses during the fourth quarter. In contrast, it took a $2.9 million provision for credit losses during the fourth quarter of 2019. The net benefit recorded in the provision for credit losses was driven by several factors, including a $2 million reversal of a previously recorded allowance for credit loss on a purchase-credit deteriorated loan, an improving economic outlook, and a substantial decrease in loans under COVID-19-related forbearance agreements, the banking company explained.
Community Bank’s total assets jumped 22 percent in the last year to reach nearly $14 billion as of Dec. 31. It attributed the increase to large inflows of government stimulus-related deposit funding and the Steuben Trust acquisition.
“Looking ahead to 2021, our focus will be on effectively countering ongoing margin pressure, improving organic performance, continued growth and investment in our nonbanking businesses and a continuation of our investment in digital, and rationalization of analog,” Tryniski said in Community Bank’s Jan. 25 earnings call with investors and analysts, according to a transcript prepared by Motley Fool. “I also expect the strength of our earnings, balance sheet, and capital generation will serve us well going forward as we continue to evaluate high-value strategic opportunities across our businesses for the benefit of our shareholders.”
Community Bank System operates more than 230 branches across upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, Vermont, and western Massachusetts through its banking subsidiary, Community Bank, N.A. It ranks among the nation’s 125 largest banks.
Compliance is “most utilized” support service NYCUA offers, membership survey finds
Some members of the New York Credit Union Association (NYCUA) — the trade association for the state’s credit unions — say compliance is the “most utilized” support service that it offers. That’s according to NYCUA’s 2020 membership survey. It included feedback from 69 credit-union leaders, representing about a quarter of the association’s membership. NYCUA conducted the
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Some members of the New York Credit Union Association (NYCUA) — the trade association for the state’s credit unions — say compliance is the “most utilized” support service that it offers.
That’s according to NYCUA’s 2020 membership survey. It included feedback from 69 credit-union leaders, representing about a quarter of the association’s membership. NYCUA conducted the online survey in December, per an online news release on the organization’s website.
The survey also found that membership in the trade association “remains extremely valuable” to New York’s credit unions and that members “maintain highly favorable views of the organization.”
The survey found that 97 percent of respondents said NYCUA was “advancing the credit-union movement by advocating, educating, uniting and supporting the interests of all credit unions statewide.” It also found an identical percentage of respondents indicating that they were satisfied with NYCUA membership, membership was valuable to their credit union, and NYCUA is “effective at supporting credit unions.”
The survey also found most respondents (percentages in the mid-90s) said that the trade association is “effective” on three matters, which include uniting the credit-union movement, as an advocate, and as an educator.
“2020 was a challenging year for us all, but NYCUA continued to unite the state’s credit unions with unparalleled advocacy, professional development and support services. As we transition to 2021, New York’s credit unions can know we are here as their dedicated and steadfast partner — just as we have been for over 100 years,” William Mellin, president and CEO of NYCUA, contended.
Empower paid $4 million give-back dividend to members for 2020
SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Empower Federal Credit Union paid its members a total of $4 million in “giveback” bonus dividends and interest rebates for 2020. The amount each member receives represents a percentage on savings-account dividends earned and a rebate on loan interest paid throughout the year, the Syracuse–based credit union said in a release. Members
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SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Empower Federal Credit Union paid its members a total of $4 million in “giveback” bonus dividends and interest rebates for 2020.
The amount each member receives represents a percentage on savings-account dividends earned and a rebate on loan interest paid throughout the year, the Syracuse–based credit union said in a release. Members bonus dividends and interest rebates were posted to their accounts on Dec. 31, 2020.
Empower Federal Credit Union (FCU) has more than 220,000 members and more than $2.3 billion in total assets, according to National Credit Union Administration data.
Empower FCU was formed in 2007 through a merger of Power FCU, founded in 1939, and Empire FCU, founded in 1950.
Hunter settles into new role as chief lending officer at Alternatives FCU
ITHACA, N.Y. — James Hunter is now a few months into his new role as chief lending officer at Alternatives Federal Credit Union (FCU) in Ithaca. Alternatives, which is located at 125 N. Fulton St. in downtown Ithaca, announced Hunter’s hiring in November. Before coming to Ithaca, he most recently served as executive director of
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ITHACA, N.Y. — James Hunter is now a few months into his new role as chief lending officer at Alternatives Federal Credit Union (FCU) in Ithaca.
Alternatives, which is located at 125 N. Fulton St. in downtown Ithaca, announced Hunter’s hiring in November.
Before coming to Ithaca, he most recently served as executive director of lending and mortgage director of real-estate lending at New Orleans Firemen’s Federal Credit Union in Metairie, Louisiana, a $182 million asset credit union. Hunter has the credit-union development educator (CUDE) certification from the National Credit Union Foundation, per an Alternatives FCU news release.
Hunter says his mission is to help underserved communities tap the financial resources they need.
“Too many people are so far away from the starting line. That’s why I have devoted my life’s work to moving the goalposts to ensure equity,” Hunter said. “Financial inclusion and empowerment are fundamental rights, especially for those who have either been traditionally underbanked, underserved, underinsured, and underappreciated. It is my sincere goal to ensure that everyone has an equal start, and that begins with mission-driven, service-based lending, financial planning, and inclusive visioning.”
During his time in Louisiana, Hunter spearheaded the creation of the Faith Fund. It is a nonprofit designed to help individuals and families better manage their money, escape predatory lending, and work toward financial stability. In Hunter’s words, the Faith Fund provided a “financial hand-up to the underserved.”
In addition, Hunter earlier worked at HOPE Federal Credit Union, a $350 million asset community development credit union, based in Jackson, Mississippi. He served as senior VP of mortgage for the credit union, leading its mortgage division.
“During his tenure, mortgage lending increased by 117 percent, generating more than $50 million in loans across the Deep South, one of the most impoverished regions of the nation. In 2017, 99 percent of HOPE’s mortgage loans were high impact loans made to first-time homebuyers, BIPOC persons [black, Indigenous and people of color], and women. These loans also supported and highlighted the community development financial institution’s mission to improve the lives of vulnerable families in a five-state service region,” per the website www.Inclusiv.org, the new name of the New York City–based National Federation of Community Development Credit Unions.
“His lifelong commitment to mission-driven lending, combined with being a champion of credit union service-work, makes him a highly-regarded national leader in the financial industry,” Eric Levine, CEO of Alternatives Federal Credit Union, said.
Founded in 1979, Alternatives Federal Credit Union says it is a community development financial institution (CDFI) “dedicated to building wealth and creating economic opportunity for underserved people and communities.”
Chemung Financial adds Archibold to board
ELMIRA, N.Y. — The board of directors of Chemung Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: CHMG) elected Raimundo C. Archibold, Jr., to the board on Jan. 20. Archibold will stand for shareholder election at the annual meeting of shareholders in June, Chemung Financial said in a Jan. 25 news release. All directors of Chemung Financial also serve on
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ELMIRA, N.Y. — The board of directors of Chemung Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: CHMG) elected Raimundo C. Archibold, Jr., to the board on Jan. 20.
Archibold will stand for shareholder election at the annual meeting of shareholders in June, Chemung Financial said in a Jan. 25 news release. All directors of Chemung Financial also serve on the board of its main banking subsidiary, Chemung Canal Trust Company.
Archibold, of New York City, currently serves as the managing director of Schwartz Heslin Group, Inc., a firm located in Albany that specializes in a blend of management consulting and investment banking. He has been with Schwartz Heslin Group since 2010 and currently heads the firm’s investment- banking division. Archibold has more than 25 years of experience in equity research, where he mainly covered the technology and telecommunication sectors, per his biography on his company’s website. He has worked on more than 20 IPOs and mergers and acquisitions. Archibold’s experience includes work with JP Morgan Equity Research, where he was the lead analyst covering the IT services sector.
A graduate of the University of Dayton and Pace University, Archibold currently serves on the boards of the Capital District YMCA and other Albany–area organizations, including Albany Medical Center. He has also served on the advisory board of Chemung Canal Trust Company’s Capital Bank division since 2018.
“Mr. Archibold’s deep experience as a financial executive will provide immediate and impactful leadership to our company. He will be a great fit for our Board of Directors, and I look forward to his contributions to our organization,” Anders Tomson, president and CEO of Chemung Financial and Chemung Canal Trust, said in the release.
Elmira–based Chemung Financial is a $2.3 billion financial services holding company that operates 30 banking offices through its principal subsidiary, Chemung Canal Trust Company, a community bank with full trust powers. Started in 1833, Chemung Canal Trust says it is the oldest locally-owned and managed community bank in New York.
Members’ technology adoption prompts Summit FCU’s Camillus branch closure
CAMILLUS, N.Y. — About 70 percent of member-customers who use the Township 5 Camillus branch of the Summit Federal Credit Union (FCU) “primarily” use its mobile and online technology for their transactions. With the use of the technology, the branch has seen declining traffic and fewer transactions for the past few years. That’s why Laurie
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CAMILLUS, N.Y. — About 70 percent of member-customers who use the Township 5 Camillus branch of the Summit Federal Credit Union (FCU) “primarily” use its mobile and online technology for their transactions.
With the use of the technology, the branch has seen declining traffic and fewer transactions for the past few years.
That’s why Laurie Baker, president and CEO of the Summit FCU, says the organization plans to close that branch in early May.
“We believe we need to concentrate our resources where it makes the most sense for our members who are also the owners of the credit union,” says Baker. “And we have a fiscal responsibility to be wise about how we invest in brick-and-mortar locations and if it would serve members better to invest elsewhere in different technologies. Sometimes that requires changing course.” She spoke with CNYBJ on Jan. 26.
The branch, which is a leased location for the Summit FCU, will close at the end of business on Saturday, May 1. An ATM will remain on-site following the closing.
When asked how many people work at the Township 5 location, Baker cited “branch security purposes” and declined to disclose an employee count. “…But everyone will be able to stay with the Summit, if they choose, and I believe all of them will,” she adds.
The credit union opened the branch in 2016 and at the time called it the “most technologically-advanced” of all its offices.
In contrast to the decline in customer traffic at the Camillus office, the Summit’s newest branches along Taft Road in Clay and in Cortland have had “steady streams” of members seeking in-person services, the credit union says.
The credit union’s Taft Road branch in Clay consolidated its previous Liverpool and Cicero branches into one, so it has a lot more members, according to Baker.
“Some of our members prefer face-to-face transactions and in Cortland, this is more the rule than the exception,” she notes.
The Summit FCU serves 15,000 members and 40 member companies in Central New York.
Despite the branch closure, Baker stresses that the Summit will continue to support initiatives “important to its Camillus members,” such as the Camillus Police Department, Camillus Senior Center, Camillus 4th of July Fireworks at Gillie Lake, and the Carol Baldwin Breast Cancer Research Fund.
VIEWPOINT: An Economic Outlook for 2021
This past year was an interesting one, to say the least. Although some may prefer to use other adjectives to describe 2020. COVID-19 provided a vast disruption of economic activity, with U.S. GDP declining 31.7 percent in the second quarter. However, the U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resiliency and rebounded 32.7 percent in the third quarter. While the
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This past year was an interesting one, to say the least. Although some may prefer to use other adjectives to describe 2020. COVID-19 provided a vast disruption of economic activity, with U.S. GDP declining 31.7 percent in the second quarter. However, the U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resiliency and rebounded 32.7 percent in the third quarter. While the economy continued to grow in the fourth quarter, activity did slow, particularly in the labor markets. It is estimated that the full year 2020 U.S. GDP will decline around 3-5 percent. Now that we have flipped the calendar to 2021, great uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 remains. Nonetheless, our 2021 economic outlook is optimistic.
There is no doubt that the COVID-19 economic disruption has endured longer than most anticipated. The hope of a short-duration event prompted by the quick “flattening of the curve” in the spring of 2020 soon dissipated as COVID spiked in the summer and again during the holiday season. Portions of the country remain in lockdown with severe economic consequences. However, while the vaccine-distribution process has been disappointingly slow, it is widely expected to accelerate. And as additional vaccines will soon be approved (hopefully), there is even greater potential to dramatically increase the supply of vaccines.
In particular, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has two attractive characteristics; it is a one-time injection and does not require deep-freeze storage. This creates potential for much broader distribution through doctor’s offices and local pharmacies, which provides hope that a return to economic normalcy is coming, although the timing is still uncertain. COVID will negatively impact the economy at least through the first quarter, probably into the second. However, the economy is poised for a very strong second half of the year.
Despite the COVID uncertainty, the economy held its own in the fourth quarter and significant areas of economic momentum have carried over from 2020 that should sustain growth until the vaccines are widely administered. Capital-goods investment and consumer spending remain strong. The purchasing managers’ indices for both the manufacturing and service sectors continue to expand. The auto and housing markets are booming. And global equity markets are trading at or near record high levels.
It has been difficult to watch the dysfunction of Washington, D.C. The federal government’s response to COVID back in March deserves accolades. While not perfect, it was swift, massive, and mostly effective. Large companies have managed rather well throughout the crisis and corporate earnings have remained strong. Unfortunately, many of the programs targeted at individuals and small businesses “expired” in the fourth quarter of 2020 and election-driven political wrangling prevented further response. The disappointing failure to replenish these programs was the main reason for the slower rate of growth in the fourth quarter.
However, with the election behind us, further stimulus will be forthcoming. A new $900 billion program was passed. This “skinny” program (I guess $900 billion qualifies as “skinny”) is targeted at the right places like the long-term unemployed and small business. President Biden called the
$900 billion program a “down payment” and has proposed an additional $1.9 trillion program.
Further fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure is highly likely. Washington, D.C. will haggle over the ultimate size and scope, but there is no doubt that massive additional spending is on its way. This additional fiscal support will bridge the economy through what is hopefully the last stand of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Federal Reserve will supplement the fiscal stimulus with continued easy monetary policy. Fed Chairman Jay Powell has stated the Fed will provide monetary support “for as long as it takes.” Inflation remains muted with major inflation indicators (PCE, CPI) hovering around 1.5 percent, far below the Fed’s 2 percent target. This green-lights easy monetary policy. In short, the interest rates are likely to remain very low and the economy will stay awash in liquidity. Again, this will aid the economy as we await widespread vaccination.
The personal savings rates have grown at record levels and it is estimated that there is over $1 trillion in savings. That is a huge stockpile of money just waiting to be unleashed into the economy. There is much discussion over the long-term impacts of COVID. It remains to be seen if business travel returns to pre-COVID levels, but we doubt individuals have lost their desire to travel and vacation. When it is safe to go out, we believe people will, with $1 trillion burning a hole in their pockets. This has the potential for explosive economic activity in the second half of the year.
Interestingly, the financial markets have barely skipped a beat, with the S&P 500 [up more than 2.6 percent year-to-date, through Jan. 25 — following a nearly 16.3 percent gain in 2020.] There seems to be an emotional tug of war in the markets, focused on three major risk factors: COVID, politics, and stimulus. As ugly as the virus and politics are, they are counter-balanced by hopes of greater vaccine dissemination and massive stimulus.
Our economic outlook remains positive while acknowledging that the timing of economic recovery is dependent on achieving some degree of control of the coronavirus. It is our sincere hope that the accelerated vaccination programs will diminish the virus risk early in 2021 and that economic activity can begin the normalization process.
We do not expect an “all clear” siren that ends the COVID-19 crisis, but rather a slow and steady increase in economic confidence as the vaccination programs and herd immunity take hold. In the interim period, we believe there are still areas of strength in the economy that can sustain growth. Fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to provide massive liquidity to the overall economy. Low interest rates and huge personal savings will fuel corporate and consumer spending. Our 2021 economic optimism will require patience. Happy New Year!
Kenneth J. Entenmann is senior VP and chief investment officer at NBT Wealth Management. Entenmann has more than 33 years of investment experience. In his current role, he oversees more than $6 billion in assets under management and administration in trust, custody, retirement, institutional, and individual accounts. Entenmann regularly shares his perspectives on the economy on his Market Insights blog at www.nbtbank.com/marketinsights.
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