Recently, our Republican Conference in the New York Assembly released its “revenue forecast” for the state. A revenue forecast is a lot like a weather forecast; it provides a snapshot of conditions today, analyzes developing patterns, and makes a projection as to what could happen in the near future. Just like a weather forecast, financial forecasts are not guarantees; they are educated predictions as to what might occur if current trends continue. 

Revenue forecast helps assess health of New York’s economy

However, instead of measuring temperature and precipitation as a weather forecast does, a revenue forecast examines dollars and cents, tax collections, and the overall condition of an economy, in this case, New York’s financial system. The data is collected, the numbers are crunched, and the outcome provides a roadmap that helps leaders like Gov. Cuomo and me make informed decisions about taxes, spending, and the economy.

Our conference’s revenue forecast analyzed the condition of New York’s economy and closely examined present — and projected — collections of tax revenue by state government from taxpayers, job creators, and other sources. The projection of “All Fund” tax revenue (All Fund revenue is exactly what it sounds like: All the revenue that state government brings in from taxes and the lottery) for New York is $134 million less than the governor forecasted for the 2011-12 and 2012-13 fiscal years. We projected total All Fund revenue at $64.5 billion for 2011-12 and $66.7 billion for 2012-13. 

Forecast: drop-off in business-tax revenue

The forecast included higher projected revenues in personal income taxes, as well as sales and user taxes, and lower projected revenue in the areas of business taxes, other taxes, and the MTA payroll tax (this is a tax collected to fund the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which oversees/operates transit downstate). On an All Fund basis, our projection anticipates $56.5 million less this year, and $89.8 million less next year, in state business-tax revenue. 

How we got here — the great recession

It is important to remember that a revenue forecast never occurs in a vacuum — it happens in the real world and must account for what is happening today. The revenue forecast was made on the heels of the worst economic downturn in our country since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

At the recession’s peak, there were close to 800,000 New Yorkers unemployed. When you account for the fact that many folks became so discouraged they simply stopped looking for work, New York’s true unemployment figure was likely closer to (or exceeded) 1 million. 

What the business-tax revenue decline means

Based on the available fiscal indicators, New York’s economic recovery appears fragile and incomplete. Private-sector job creators have not bounced back as strongly as the governor anticipates. I believe the decline in business-tax revenue illustrates the urgent need for Albany to enact pro-growth job-creation policies that will strengthen New York’s economic recovery, especially for Upstate. 

My pro-growth jobs agenda

Albany needs to get off the dime and move forward with an aggressive, pro-growth, private-sector jobs agenda that strengthens our economic recovery. My pro-jobs agenda includes:

ν Lowering the corporate franchise tax for all businesses;

ν Repealing the corporate franchise tax and personal income tax for manufacturers;

ν Eliminating the state’s Temporary Basic Utility Assessment (18-A) imposed on utility companies that drives up costs for ratepayers;

ν Reinvesting in New York’s manufacturing sector, especially in the areas of high-tech, nanotech, and biotech;

ν Rescinding the job-killing “Wage Theft Prevention Act’s” annual notice requirement that buries job creators in needless
paperwork;

ν Delivering unfunded-mandate relief that includes freezing county Medicaid costs at the current level and banning all new unfunded mandates; and 

ν Promoting “Economic Gardening” to help expand “second-stage businesses” that employ 5 to 99 persons.

Growing the private sector, promoting sensible, statewide economic-development and cutting job-killing rules, regulations, and red tape that act as barriers to job creation are all necessary to ensure a full, balanced, and sustained economic recovery that benefits all New Yorkers. With any luck, future forecasts will point to continued recovery, a healthier economy, and more jobs.       θ

Brian M. Kolb (R,I,C–Canandaigua) is the New York Assembly Minority Leader and represents the 129th Assembly District, which encompasses parts of Ontario, Cayuga, Onondaga, and Cortland counties, and all of Seneca County. Contact him at (315) 781-2030 or kolbb@assembly.state.ny.us