New York produced less electricity from renewable sources in 2018 than it did the year before despite significant intervention by state government.

Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Public Service Commission (PSC) in August 2016 ordered utilities and large electricity customers to subsidize new renewable projects by purchasing renewable-energy credits (RECs), with an eye toward having half the state’s electricity come from renewables by 2030. Cuomo has recently touted the policy as part of his version of a “Green New Deal,” and hiked the 2030 renewable target to 70 percent.

The PSC doesn’t calculate the total cost of its renewable mandate and utilities are prohibited from showing ratepayers the impact on their bills. But based on the number of RECs utilities must buy and the price at which they were being sold by the state Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA), the mandate will cost about $50 million this year and rise to more than $100 million by 2021.

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), which oversees the wholesale electricity market, detailed 2018 generation in its annual Power Trends report in May, and it calls into question what New Yorkers are getting for their generosity.

The data show renewable-energy generators, including hydroelectric, wind, solar, and others, together produced 35,808 gigawatt hours of electricity last year. That amounted to a 2.5 percent drop from 2017. All told, 26.4 percent of New York’s generation last year came from renewables, down from 28 percent the year before. The numbers don’t reflect the state’s efforts promoting behind-the-meter renewable, such as most solar-panel deployments, which reduce demand for power from the grid and aren’t easily quantified. That said, New York customers used more electricity from the grid in 2018 than in 2016 or 2017.

As shown in NYISO Power Trends reports, the state does not appear to be on the path to reaching Cuomo’s initial 50 percent goal, let alone his more recent 70 percent target. In fact, the state has yet to hit the 30-percent target state regulators set in 2010 — hoping to hit it by 2015.

Most of the renewable energy came from the state Power Authority’s Niagara Falls and Massena dams, where annual outputs fluctuate based on weather factors and operational decisions. But when all hydroelectric power is excluded, it reveals less renewable energy (6,763 GWh) was sold on the grid in 2018 than in 2015 (7,064 GWh), before the Clean Energy Standard was adopted.

How could that be? For one thing, the electric grid hasn’t been able to deliver it. NYISO warned state regulators in 2010 that transmission would be an issue if the state wanted to promote wind development, and roughly 70 GWh of wind energy last year had to be “curtailed” because the grid couldn’t move it from its upstate source to where demand was higher.

Still, other projects have been stuck on the drawing board because proposals to build solar panel and wind-turbine depots in rural upstate regions have met local opposition. The state has taken the unconventional step of using state resources to help renewable-friendly local officials change municipal codes and smooth the way for private developers.

The state’s ham-handed approach to subsidies failed to initially account for the many smaller renewable generators getting state support under a Pataki-era program. One biomass generator went out of business at the end of 2017 because state officials couldn’t, in the interceding 16 months, fold them into the new subsidy regime.

Even when issues with transmission and existing facilities are worked out, the state faces additional headwinds.

New York’s program has relied on a pair of lucrative federal incentives that are now being phased out. Wind projects that break ground after Dec. 31 will no longer be eligible for the production tax credit (PTC), which pays owners a subsidy for each kilowatt-hour generated. The investment tax credit (ITC) that benefits larger solar projects will pay out 30 percent of capital costs on projects built this year before unwinding down to 10 percent in 2021.

Meanwhile, close to two-thirds of the current wind-energy capacity (1,162 MW of 1,739 MW) came online prior to 2009. Assuming a 20-year project life expectancy, some facilities will likely need to be replaced before 2030.

All told, New York’s renewable-energy policies have never been poised for success.

First, the Cuomo administration has been more interested in tactics — such as building more renewables — than the actual goal of lowering carbon-dioxide emissions.

And even that tactic was over-constrained: the PSC explicitly disqualified most hydroelectric power from state subsidies in no small part because it might make greater economic sense to finance a new dam in Quebec than to deploy solar panels in places like snowy Oswego County.

To cite one hypothetical alternative, if the state imposed a broad carbon tax, people and businesses (and perhaps even governments) would have found efficiencies and reduce emissions at the lowest cost. But Cuomo’s “Green New Deal” has never been about any sort of environmental outcomes. That became clear when the Cuomo administration last year took steps to steer construction work on renewable-energy projects to building trade unions.

The anemic growth of land-based wind and other renewables will increase pressure on the administration to go big and further subsidize construction of larger wind turbines off Long Island. Unfortunately for ratepayers, offshore wind is the single most-expensive type of renewable energy, and the Cuomo administration has already signaled most of the necessary billions will come from electricity customers north of New York City.      

Ken Girardin is the policy analyst at the Empire Center for Public Policy, Inc., which says it is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank based in Albany. It seeks to promote public policy reforms grounded in free-market principles, personal responsibility, and the ideals of effective and accountable government. This article first appeared in the NYTorch public policy blog at NYTorch.com. Contact Girardin at ken@empirecenter.org

Changing the sales narrative

“Don’t fall into the trap of thinking like a customer. If you do, you’re done.” This warning has been pounded into the heads of salespeople — and it will follow them until their last day on the job.

Why is thinking like a customer dangerous? It’s the noxious notion that leads down the dark and dismal path to serious trouble — lost sales. If you dare to let yourself think like customers, you may be distracted from your mission and become overly understanding and sympathetic, even finding yourself walking in a customer’s shoes.

Yet, successful salespeople work hard at sharpening their understanding of what prospects and customers are thinking. It takes effort and skill to get inside potential customers’ heads and it starts with asking questions:

• What’s important to them?

• What are they looking for?

• How motivated are they?

• Are they focused or not sure of themselves?

• What are they trying to tell me?

• Do they expect too much? 

• Will they be fair?

• What are they not telling me?

• Are they worried about being taken for a ride? 

• How concerned are they with making a mistake or getting stuck with a decision they will come to regret?

Accurate answers to these questions help to get an exact picture of what’s going on —and that changes the sales narrative. Instead of focusing on how you’re going to get customers to do what you want, you move to letting them know you’re on their side and your mission is to help them achieve their goal or dream.

In fact, it takes doing the opposite of what salespeople have been told to avoid —thinking like customers. It applies to all sales, whether you’re selling burritos from a food truck, diamond rings, engineering systems, real estate, insurance, medical equipment, or anything else.

What is it that the customer is trying to say? Some people have trouble expressing themselves clearly, either unwittingly — or on purpose. People often want others to think well of them, so they answer questions in ways that will impress the salesperson. They may let it be known, for example, that they can afford a purchase that’s far beyond their financial means. On and on it goes.

We all use shortcuts for coming up with answers so we can get the job done as quickly as possible. In sales this leads to believing we know more about how customers think than we do. Without even realizing it, opinions become facts and certainty supersedes questioning, doubt, and curiosity, the essential tools for understanding customers’ thoughts and behavior. 

And at what cost? Lost sales.

Four common-sense rules for understanding customers

Here are four basic rules to help you gain a better understanding of how customers think and help generate more sales.

Rule #1. Never assume you know what a customer is thinking. 

This is the place to start. Believing we can know what someone is thinking is useful–it gives us the feeling of being in control, even though the deck is stacked against such a notion.

The neurologist Robert A. Burton, MD writes, “We make up stories about our spouses, our kids, our leaders, and our enemies. Inspiring narratives get us through dark nights and tough times, but we’ll always make better predictions guided by the impersonal analysis of big data than by the erroneous belief that we can read another’s mind.”

Rule #2. Avoid thinking about what you want to say or do next.

In other words, the human mind isn’t up to speed on multi-tasking. When we’re with a client and our mind is on our proposal or what we want to say next, we’re distracted and unable to concentrate on what a customer is saying. 

There is nothing more important than what a customer is saying. If we don’t get it at that moment, it’s gone. Try as hard as we can, we are unable to recall what we’ve missed.

Rule #3. Make keyword notes.

It’s a similar problem when concentrating on what a client is saying so you don’t miss anything, while taking notes disrupts listening. As it turns out, we’re not wired to do two things at the same time, while using a smartphone to record the meeting can be questionable.

So, how can you keep your attention on what you’re hearing and recall it at the same time? Keyword notetaking helps. Instead of trying to jot down even four or five words at a time, let alone sentences, just one or two keywords aid recall later.

Rule #4. Use “rewind reviews”

Missing essential information or getting it wrong undermines a marketer or salesperson’s credibility — and the chances of make the sale.

An effective way to avoid such unnecessary mishaps is the “rewind review.” You might say, “I want to be sure I understand what you’re telling me, so let me put in my own words. Correct me if I get it wrong.” This not only will help get it right, but it sends the message that you’re a serious listener.

The battle for the control of the minds of salespeople is relentless. “Don’t give-in. Don’t let yourself think like a customer,” they tell us. “It’s our agenda and what we need to accomplish that counts.” At the same time, we are told to put the customer first. But those are just words that don’t ring true with customers unless we think like them.         

John Graham of GrahamComm is a marketing and sales strategist-consultant and business writer. He is the creator of “Magnet Marketing,” and publishes a free monthly eBulletin, “No Nonsense Marketing & Sales Ideas.” Contact him at jgraham@grahamcomm.com or visit: johnrgraham.com