Vaccines for COVID-19 recently began being distributed and administered. The Wall Street Journal states it will take until sometime in March to vaccinate the first 100 million individuals with the highest priority of getting the vaccine. That would leave well over 200 million Americans still in need of the vaccine as we head into spring. 

 The stock market is doing very well — an unbelievable achievement never seen before — even though millions of people have lost their jobs. The stock market is based on the theory of expectation, and what it is telling us is that with vaccines, the economy will begin to turn around and will be much better going forward. 

 But let’s look at this through the eyes of small businesses. Outside of government, companies with less than $7 million in sales and fewer than 500 employees are widely considered small businesses by the U.S. Small Business Administration. And the expectation for small businesses to return to what we considered normal pre-pandemic is not going happen anytime soon. 

 Here’s why. Multiple states have banned indoor dining at what remaining restaurants are still open. As of Dec. 1, nearly 17 percent of U.S. restaurants were “closed permanently or long-term,” according to a study by the National Restaurant Association. That percentage amounts to more than 110,000 service-industry businesses across the country.

As of the end of September, the number of businesses that had closed totaled about 170,000. And since that time, the total has possibly exceeded 200,000; it’s hard to determine how many people have been affected. In November, the U.S. had 10.7 million unemployed persons [almost 5 million more than in February, before the pandemic.] However, this number only tracks the number of people who are unemployed. It doesn’t record the people who are not drawing unemployment benefits and are out of work. So, in reality the number is higher than the 10.7 million.

With businesses closing and laying people off, no jobs for people to replace what they lost, and no income for the owners of the businesses, vaccines or not, we won’t have enough people working to turn the economy around. It will take most of 2021 to [widely distribute the vaccines to all the people who want them], but many of the unemployed still will have no jobs to go to after they get vaccinated.

 The economists tell us there will be a surge in business once vaccines have been administered to the public, but the numbers tell us differently. And here is the biggest kicker of all that many economists have not figured into the equation — people’s habits have changed over the past year. 

 People are not buying as many clothes as they used to because they have nowhere to go. There is little dining, virtually no entertainment, and no gatherings, so there is no need to buy new clothes. Fuel sales are down because people are not commuting to work like they used to do. Any business or venue that needs a gathering of people to remain in business is either closed or ignored due to government restrictions.

 It’s obvious that small businesses are not going to return to pre-pandemic levels with so many businesses closed in such a short time period. We are looking at 2022 at the earliest before the idea of normalcy begins to occur. And when the economy does begin to turn around, some of our favorite businesses we used to visit will be gone. Businesses cannot survive as long as the states keep changing the rules, which creates volatility in the marketplace. Entrepreneurs and investors seek opportunities but shun regulation and volatility, which can disrupt the flow of business. We eventually will see a surge in small businesses opening, but until then, small businesses are on a declining slope.                

Terry Monroe (www.terrymonroe.com) is founder and president of American Business Brokers & Advisors (ABBA) and author of “Hidden Wealth: The Secret to Getting Top Dollar for Your Business” with ForbesBooks. Monroe has been in the business of establishing, operating, and selling businesses for more than 35 years. 

Pundits have been commenting on the “Decline of the West” since the German philosopher Oswald Spengler published a book by that title in 1918. The Western world may not be as dominant as it once was, but its decline has been exaggerated.

The West, as we usually refer to it, is more a concept than a geographical region. We use the term to refer to a group of advanced industrial nations, united by shared values including democratic governance, constitutional norms, the rule of law, and civil liberties. Usually focused on the United States, Canada, and Western Europe, the term often expands to include Eastern Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. Other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, have similar values and economic systems but are not usually considered part of the West. 

One face of the West is the G7 organization — made up of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the U.S., some of the world’s major economies — which has become a platform to coordinate economic and trade policies. 

Western prominence dates back centuries. The climate and geography of the trans-Atlantic world provided a lot of advantages: deep-water ports, rich land for agricultural production, and raw materials to build the world’s strongest economic systems. 

Although the collapse of the West has been often predicted, it has proved resilient, re-inventing itself, and displaying a remarkable capacity for survival, even dominance. 

The U.S. began to move to the forefront of the West around the time of World War I. After World War II, the international order was set in place for more than 40 years. The world was divided into competing spheres: the Communist Bloc, centered in the Soviet Union; and the Western Bloc, led by the United States and committed to free markets and democratic governance. 

That bipolar system collapsed with the breakup of the USSR. New actors emerged to contend for influence. The West was challenged by the Islamic State and other forces. European nations merged to create a single market and a borderless alliance in the European Union, with Germany its most powerful member. Other regional powers like India, Russia, and China stepped up. 

But these powers faced challenges, including enormous debt, aging populations, and a reliance on immigration to meet economic needs. Frustration arose over limits to their powers, and questions arose about the capitalistic systems as the predominant model of governance. 

Even so, power and influence may have shifted from the West, but the United States and its allies still retain powerful positions in the world. 

First, the U.S. and Europe dominate international organizations like the G7, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum — giving them an outsized influence over the global economy. Second, the United States is in a class by itself for military might. The U.S. and its allies account for about 70 percent of total military spending. Their power is simply unmatched. 

China is now emerging as a major power and economy, even with a repressive political system. It has lifted millions out of poverty and seeks to expand its influence, but the combined economic and political strength of the West far outpaces China. The West has the best universities and the most educated people, who are leading the way in research, innovation, and technology. It has vast stores of natural resources, including metals and minerals, agricultural land, fisheries, and timber. 

And, not least, Western governments have proven to be stable, able to absorb economic and political shocks better than authoritarian regimes. In just one indicator of wealth and stability, Western currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, continue to be favored by economies around the world. 

Perhaps the most important reason for the West’s continued influence is the appeal of its values and norms. Its support for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law is a beacon for people everywhere who aspire to a better life. The authoritarian model has its achievements, but while nothing’s preordained, the West’s record of resilience is impressive.      

Lee Hamilton, 89, is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years (1965-1999), representing a district in south central Indiana.