OPINION: One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s Impact on 2026 Midterm Elections

Following the U.S. House and Senate completing their work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — enacting much of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda as he signed it into law on July 4 — Democrats are now shifting their posture toward the 2026 Congressional midterms. They are seeking to reclaim the House and Senate by campaigning against the bill’s provisions. Not a single Democrat in the House or Senate voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which makes the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, expands tax relief with no income taxes on tips or overtime, cuts income taxes for seniors collecting Social Security, includes 100 percent expensing for factories and agriculture to encourage domestic production, [and many other positive provisions]. The law also provides $170 billion of border and immigration-enforcement provisions, including  $46 billion to finish the border wall, $45 billion for new immigration detention centers that can deal with 116,000 detainees, knocks 1.4 million illegal aliens off Medicaid and food stamps, provides 10,000 new Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, [and more]. For President Trump it was his biggest legislative win ever, and will give his administration and Congress some breathing room on the debt ceiling, which was increased by $5 trillion, taking that off the list of “must-pass” bills that will come up again in the next couple years. The remaining bills will include appropriations, whether in the form of individual appropriations bills, an omnibus bill, or another continuing resolution. These are leverage points that will cause President Trump and Republican leaders in Congress to sit down with Democrats to craft presumably stopgap deals to kick the can ahead. In the meantime, despite all the action in Congress and what remains ahead, not much has changed with the generic Congressional ballot for 2026, with Democrats only leading by 2.3 percentage points, 45 percent to 42.7 percent, according to the latest average compiled by RealClearPolling.com. Usually a reliable proxy for which direction the country is headed in, the average of generic Congressional ballot polls all predicted the winner of the 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. In 2002, the Real Clear Politics average of the last batch of polls taken had Republicans winning the popular vote 47.7 percent to 46 percent, and sure enough Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives, except that it was by an even greater margin than forecast, 49.6 percent to 45 percent. In 2006, the average of polls had Democrats leading the generic Congressional ballot 52.1 percent to 40.6 percent, although that overstated the outcome a bit, with Democrats winning the House popular vote 52 percent to 44 percent. In 2010, the average of polls had Republicans leading 50.7 percent to 41.3 percent, also overstated a bit, with the outcome being 51.6 percent to 44.8 percent. In 2014, the average of polls had Republicans ahead, 45.6 percent to 43.2 percent, and Republicans won by 51.4 percent to 45.7 percent. In 2018, the average of polls had Democrats ahead, 49.7 percent to 42.4 percent, and Democrats won by a margin of 53.3 percent to 44.9 percent. And in 2022, the average of polls had Republicans ahead 48 percent to 45.5 percent, and Republicans won 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent. In midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2022, the party that occupied the White House lost seats in the House 27 out of 30 times, or 90 percent of the time, and in years with losses those averaged 34 seats. It was only overcome in 1934, 1998 and 2002, with the Great Depression, Monica Lewinsky and the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks acting as exigent events. The general rule favoring the opposition in midterms is all James Madison’s constitutional scheme of periodic elections, explicitly designed to frustrate the ability of majorities to get things done. But midterms are generally a turnout affair, where the opposition party, being out of power, simply has more of a motivation to vote, and so they tend to do relatively better, picking up seats, but not always majorities. So, that’s the advantage wielded generally by the opposition power during Congressional midterms, which might make Democrats’ current narrow margin in the generic ballot somewhat worrisome. On average, Trump still has his highest approval of his entire political career at 46.5 percent — higher than in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 — while public approval of Democrats generally has been cratering. Expect Republicans to emphasize their advantage on issues like illegal immigration, the border, and social issues including the participation of biological males in female sports. Inflation, still the top issue among voters, continues its three-year decline and so if anything could look good for Trump and Republicans, provided incomes and wages continuing outpacing any consumer price increases. Other economic headwinds might come in the form of higher unemployment, a slowdown, or even a recession, while labor shortages might mitigate any downturn. There are also exigent factors that can arise and impact how the midterms go. Stay tuned.        

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Robert Romano is the executive director of Americans for Limited Government, a conservative 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization that says it is dedicated to restoring constitutionally limited government, allowing individuals to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.