OPINION: Nuclear threat deserves attention as much as ever

Most of the world scarcely noticed when tensions flared between India and Pakistan this spring. Terrorists allegedly killed dozens of civilians in the disputed Kashmir region, and soon the two countries were launching airstrikes and drone attacks against each other. But this was no simple neighborhood dispute. India and Pakistan are among the nine nations that possess nuclear weapons — each reportedly has about 170 warheads. Any armed conflict between them could expand to threaten not only South Asia but the world. As a recent series in the Washington Post makes clear, a nuclear war could start from a regional conflict like the one between India and Pakistan. It could start from a miscalculation as enemies escalate fighting. Or it could start by accident, possibly from equipment failure or human error. “The end of humanity could arrive in minutes — that is what makes nuclear war so different from other wars,” officials with the Federation of American Scientists write in the Washington Post series. We have known for 80 years that nuclear weapons pose an existential threat. We saw their destructive power when the U.S. dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II. But we have lived with the threat for so long that it is easy to ignore. During the Cold War, the U.S. and Soviet Union stockpiled enough nuclear weapons to destroy each other many times over. Thanks to diplomacy, a strategy of mutual deterrence, weapons treaties, and no small amount of luck, we didn’t use them. But we came dangerously close. Most of us are familiar with the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 13-day U.S.-Soviet standoff in 1962. But the Washington Post series describes multiple close calls. Between 1960 and 1976, a U.S. early-warning system produced seven false alarms that we were under attack. Then, in 1979-80, there were five mistaken alerts that Soviet missiles had been launched. Any of those could have produced a response that led to catastrophe. Over time, the number of nuclear weapons was reduced significantly, but they didn’t disappear. Today the nuclear club includes the U.S., Russia, Britain, China, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. They have more than 12,000 warheads at 120 sites in 14 countries, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Roughly 2,100 are on high alert and can be launched without delay. The combined nuclear arsenals have the power of more than 145,000 Hiroshima bombs. The last remaining nuclear treaty, New START, which limits U.S. and Russian intercontinental weapons, will expire in February 2026. Meanwhile, weapons systems are being made more complex and sophisticated, capable of avoiding detection and striking targets in minutes. Some leaders have raised the possibility of using so-called tactical nuclear weapons in conventional warfare. As the Federation of American Scientist officials write, “It is as if the lessons of the Cold War — that there is never a finish line to the arms race and that more-effective nuclear weapons do not lead to stability and security — have been forgotten by the current generation of defense planners.” It’s not just defense planners who seem to have forgotten. Most Americans are understandably much more concerned with what affects our daily lives: inflation, the economy, and crime, etc. We may follow news about immigration, conflict in the Middle East, or the Russia-Ukraine war. Nuclear war is probably the least of our worries. But this is no garden-variety threat. The Nobel committee made the point when it awarded the 2024 Peace Prize to survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings: “At this moment in human history, it is worth reminding ourselves what nuclear weapons are: the most destructive weapons the world has ever seen.” We should expect our leaders to do everything they can to ensure such weapons are never used.         

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Lee Hamilton, 94, is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at the IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years (1965-1999), representing a district in south-central Indiana.