President Joe Biden, who is seeking reelection in 2024, before he was elected in 2020, enjoyed national polling leads among key age demographics across the country, with a solid base of support among younger voters. He led 49 percent to 32 percent among 18–29-year-olds and 54 percent to 33 percent among 30–44-year-olds against former President Donald Trump, according to the Economist-YouGov poll taken in October 2020.

Almost three years later, the situation has dramatically changed. Inflation is higher, the economy is slowing down, and Biden’s legislative record or lack thereof has been laid bare (Biden had very slim majorities his first two years, making major bills difficult to enact). And, now other programs he campaigned on, including student-loan forgiveness and aggressive lawmaking under the guise of regulations by federal agencies, have been rolled back by Supreme Court — with more to come.

Now, in the June 2023 Economist-YouGov poll, among key age groups, Biden still holds a 40 percent to 27 percent lead over Trump among 18–29-year-olds, but is now losing to Trump 40 percent to 39 percent among 30–44-year-olds. Those are Millennials, who are now fully integrated into the U.S. labor force and many are getting married and having kids. They started paying taxes years ago.

Overall, it represents a 22-point swing among Millennials, (who number 72.2 million), or almost 16 million potential voters with shifting attitudes born between 1980 and 1996. That creates a massive opening for Trump or another potential GOP nominee to build Republican support among the largest age demographic in the country, more than either Baby Boomers or Generation X, who Trump also comfortably leads among at the moment.

Trump is ahead of Biden among 45–64-year-olds by 46 percent to 34 percent, and among those 65 years old and older, by 48 percent to 40 percent. Biden’s only lead comes among Generation Z, or 18-29-year-olds.

Given that partisan attitudes have remained roughly the same — Democrats still support Biden and Republicans still support Trump — the greatest shift for the moment appears to be among younger independents, or just independents in general.

Whereas in 2020, Biden led independents by 48 percent to 39 percent, now Trump leads Biden 38 percent to 28 percent, with a third of independent voters up for grabs. For an incumbent president like Biden, that is indeed troubling news, as he attempts to reconstruct the coalition that got him elected during the COVID pandemic. 

If demographics are destiny, then an aging population may be an emerging strength for Republicans in elections going forward, if indeed shifts in attitudes come with age. But swings among independents can be deceptive that way, and could just as easily signal an unpopular incumbent, opening the potential for Democrats to later win back wayward Millennials. But so far, Biden isn’t closing the deal. Stay tuned.      

Robert Romano is the VP of public policy at Americans for Limited Government (ALG). The organization says it is a “non-partisan, nationwide network committed to advancing free-market reforms, private property rights, and core American liberties.” 

Recent events in Russia have been surprising, even shocking. When the private army employed by Russia’s Wagner Group left Ukraine and moved toward Moscow last month, it caught everyone by surprise. 

We’re used to thinking of Russian leader Vladimir Putin as a dictator who has complete control of his country. Maybe he does, but the Wagner Group mutiny certainly shook that idea. It presented Putin in a very different light than the one most Americans are accustomed to seeing. It suggested he has some real problems, even if it’s hard to know what or how serious they are.

It’s likely to take time for the meaning of the events to shake out. Reports out of Russia have been incomplete and contradictory. Because of Putin’s suppression of free speech and the press, Russia lacks a strong, independent news media that we can rely on for the truth.

The initial reaction in the West was that the uprising weakened Putin. That ought to be good news for the U.S.-backed Ukrainian military, which has begun a counteroffensive in response to Russia’s invasion. But Putin could also use the chaos to further crack down on critics and strengthen his hand.

At the center of the controversy is Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch who says he founded the Wagner Group in 2014. A former caterer and restaurant owner, he leveraged a relationship with Putin to build a business network, including a private army with an estimated 25,000 troops.

The use of private forces in warfare isn’t unique to Russia. In 2016, one in four U.S. personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan were private contractors, the Navy Times reported. But the Wagner Group has played an unusually prominent role on the battlefield. In Ukraine, it was heavily involved in the capture of the city of Bakhmut. It’s also fought in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali.

Many Wagner fighters are former prisoners who took up arms in exchange for being released. Some have been accused of atrocities, including the killing of civilians, torture, rape and robbery.

Prigozhin clashed publicly with Russian military leaders, accusing them of incompetence. He seemed to hope Putin would remove the top generals, but that didn’t happen. Instead, he lost access to prisons for recruiting and was told to sign a contract with the military.

It’s not clear what became the last straw, but on June 24, Prigozhin’s troops left Ukraine, took over a military headquarters in southern Russia, and started moving toward Moscow. Then, abruptly, they stopped. After a wild weekend of confusing news, Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus, a staunch Russian ally. The Kremlin “went into overdrive” to project stability, the Washington Post reported.

It’s tempting, for us in the West, to see any development that seems to weaken Russian leadership as positive. That’s not necessarily true. From all indications, Prigozhin, if he were to regain influence, is every bit as murderous and unpredictable as Putin.

More seriously, we should be concerned about instability in Russia’s government and military. Russia and the U.S. are the world’s leading nuclear powers by far. Russia possesses 6,000 nuclear warheads, 1,584 of which are deployed, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. Some are deployed in Belarus. Anything that makes their control unstable is cause for worry.

Putin has shown himself to be a ruthless leader, devoted to holding onto power at all costs. If he believes his authority is threatened, it’s not clear how he would react.

We Americans rely on our intelligence officials and foreign-policy experts to understand what’s happening in Russia and how it’s likely to play out. But even the best experts cannot predict the future.

Winston Churchill famously described Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” He said those words in 1939. They are every bit as true today.     

Lee Hamilton, 92, is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at the IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years (1965-1999), representing a district in south-central Indiana.