New York manufacturers are again reporting drops in both new orders and shipments, which helped unexpectedly push the monthly gauge of the sector back into negative territory.

The general-business conditions index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell 21 points to -8.7 in September, its first negative reading since June.

In the prior couple months, the index rose 6 points to 11.9 in August, after soaring 22 points to 5.5 in July. The general business conditions index is the monthly barometer of the New York manufacturing industry.

Based on firms responding to the survey, the September measurement indicates business activity “declined modestly” in New York state, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its Sept. 15 report.

A negative reading on the index indicates a decline in the sector, while a positive number points to expansion or growth in manufacturing activity.

The September general business conditions index’s negative reading was much worse than economists’ expectations of a measurement of 4.3, which would have indicated continued expansion in the sector.

The September survey found new orders and shipments fell “sharply,” the New York Fed said. Supply availability “worsened somewhat,” while inventories edged lower for a second straight month.

Firms expected some improvement in conditions in the months ahead, but optimism remained “subdued.”

Survey details

The new-orders index declined 35 points to -19.6, and the shipments index fell 30 points to -17.3, the lowest levels for both indexes since April 2024, pointing to “significant declines” in orders and shipments, the New York Fed said.

Unfilled orders fell. The inventories index remained modestly negative at -4.9, indicating that business inventories “continued to shrink somewhat.”

Delivery times were unchanged. The supply-availability index dropped to -8.8, a sign that supply availability continued to worsen.

The index for number of employees came in at around 0, suggesting that employment was little changed after increasing for the prior three months, while the average-workweek index declined to -5.1, pointing to a modest drop in hours worked.

The prices-paid index fell 8 points to 46.1, a sign that input-price increases “slowed but remained steep,” while the prices-received index was little changed at 21.6, indicating that selling prices continued to rise at a moderate pace.

The index for future general business conditions came in at 14.8, suggesting that firms expect conditions to improve somewhat in the months ahead, but optimism remained restrained. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed.

The future employment index fell to near zero, a “rare occurrence” suggesting that employment levels are not expected to increase over the next six months, the New York Fed said. Capital spending plans remained soft.

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.