Not as optimistic about the future

Upstate consumers tapped a well of current confidence in May, buoying their willingness to spend, according to a monthly poll from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).

SRI’s overall consumer-confidence index for upstate New York edged up 3.3 points to 74.7. It nearly breached the index’s break-even point of 75.

That’s the point at which consumers are equally optimistic and pessimistic. Index results below 75 reflect predominant pessimism, while results above 75 show largely optimistic consumers.

Much of May’s confidence increase came from a flood of current confidence — the SRI index’s current-confidence component jumped 6.8 points to 78.4. Its future-confidence component inched up 1 point to 72.3. SRI measures overall confidence by combining current and future confidence.

“There’s a big jump Upstate,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. “People are feeling a little more confidence, and they’re more willing to spend.”

The gush of current confidence wasn’t confined to New York’s upstate region. In the state as a whole, overall consumer confidence swelled 2 points to 76.6.

Current statewide confidence surged 5.2 points to 76.2. Future confidence held even at 76.9.

May’s outpouring of current confidence is a departure from recent months, according to Lonnstrom. Overall-confidence gains had been largely led by consumers expressing a willingness to spend in the future, not the present, he says.

“Current confidence has been kind of stagnant, just drifting along,” he says. “And then all of a sudden, the current component went up over 5 points.”

The metropolitan New York City area went with the flow as well, with overall confidence climbing 1.5 points to 77.9. Current confidence spurted up 4.5 points to 75, but future confidence in the city area trickled down 0.5 points to 79.8.

Nationally, consumers felt better about spending under current conditions and in the future, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. 

Overall consumer confidence across the nation moved up 2.9 points to 79.3. Current confidence increased 4.3 points to 87.2, and future confidence rose 2 points to 74.3.

Gas and food prices

Falling gasoline prices took some pressure off consumers, according to SRI’s survey. The portion of consumers citing gas prices as a problem slipped in both upstate New York and the state as a whole.

Upstate, 67 percent of consumers said gasoline prices were a problem, down from 77 percent in April. Statewide, 58 percent listed gas prices as a problem, down from 67 percent.

“If you go back a couple of months ago, people were talking about $4 a gallon gas, $5 a gallon gas this summer,” Lonnstrom says. “That has really turned around.”

Consumer concern over food prices was steadier. In May, 68 percent of upstate residents named food as a problem, just below the 69 percent who were concerned in April. Among statewide consumers, 65 percent said food prices were a problem in May, a dip from 67 percent in April.

And 55 percent of upstate residents said both gas and food prices posed a problem in May, down from 62 percent. Statewide, 47 percent said both gas and food prices were a problem, down from 54 percent.

New York buying plans

Consumers upped their plans to make most types of major purchases in May, SRI found. Computers logged in as the only category where buying plans fell, dipping 1.3 points to 13.9 percent.

Buying plans for cars and trucks revved up 2.8 points to 12.9 percent. Plans for furniture purchases ticked up 0.7 points to 19.5 percent.

The portion of consumers who anticipated buying major home improvements rose 0.1 point to 16.6 percent. The portion planning to buy a home increased 1.6 points to 5.7 percent.

The upturn in home-purchasing plans is relatively small but could be significant, according to Lonnstrom.

“You’re never going to get a ton of people saying, ‘We’re going to buy a house in the next six months,’ ” he says. “If we can turn around the housing market, that will be big for future confidence, because that’s been depressing confidence since 2008.”

SRI surveyed 801 New York residents over the age of 18 in May to conduct the survey. The consumer-confidence index does not have a margin of error because it is derived by a series of statistical calculations, but buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, according to SRI.