A big question about Donald Trump is how did they get it so wrong? That is the pundits, the party elite, consultants, editorial writers, and the other candidates. How come they were so totally wrong about the rise of Trump?

The answer is Joe the Plumber.

He’s the guy who dared to question Barrack Obama during a campaign stop in 2008. Joe questioned Obama’s tax-policy proposals. He told the candidate he wanted to start a plumbing business. John McCain quickly made Joe the Plumber part of his campaign.

He did so because neither he nor any of the GOP establishment people behind his campaign knew a plumber. (To be sure, his running mate Sarah Palin did.) And, the establishment folks don’t know any plumbers today. They don’t know electricians, bartenders, and brick layers. They don’t know barbers and cops. They don’t know Army privates and machine operators. They don’t know truckers and waitresses. 

Candidates want votes from these folks. So in every campaign, they assault us with fakery. The candidates bowl a strike at a bowling alley. Or raise a mug of suds with miners. Or drive a tank or tractor. Or eat a hot dog with county fair-goers.

But once the cameras quit, they don’t know these folks. They don’t sit in saloons with them. They don’t party with them at the Elks Club. They are not off to the church chicken supper tonight. This goes for the candidates as much as for the pundits, consultants, and commentators.

Because they don’t really know such folks, they did such a lousy job predicting how they will vote. Because they don’t really listen to such folks, they don’t know how angry many of them are about how this country is being run.

These are important voters, because many are on the blue-collar side of the Democratic Party. They’re not crazy about the intellectual side of that party. The academics and social workers don’t do much for them. A lot of these voters jumped ship and voted for Ronald Reagan for president twice. A lot of them are voting for Trump today.

Now, Trump’s support is broader than that. But if the pundit class had been slurping suds with plumbers over the years, they would have heard alarm bells. Bells so loud they would have known the noise would resonate well beyond the plumbers.

But they don’t hang out with the low brows; they don’t hear them. The establishment figures sip Sancerre with their fellows, and hear only what their fellows think. Instead of what the Great Unwashed think. Most of them haven’t gripped a calloused hand in years. 

If Trump wins this battle, someone may declare it was won in the truck stops, greasy spoons, factory floors, saloons, and county fairs of this country. The very places the media and political elite meet and greet during campaigns. The very places they avoid between elections.

Now, I am not recommending these cats change their social habits. But in an election like this, they should hang up their predicting boots, because they’ve got no mud on those boots. And most of their predictions thus far have fizzled.

A few elections ago, a network media gal in the Big Apple made a big announcement. She wailed that she could not understand how Reagan got elected, because nobody she knew voted for him.

A few weeks ago, I saw a similar comment from a female movie star about The Donald. She does not know a single person who plans to vote for him.

Maybe she should attend one of her movies, and chat up the guy or gal who vacuums the popcorn between shows.

From Tom … as in Morgan.                     

Tom Morgan writes about political, financial, and other subjects from his home near Oneonta. Several upstate radio stations carry his daily commentary, Tom Morgan’s Money Talk. Contact him at tomasinmorgan@yahoo.com

With the deadline for the state budget approaching, one of the most contentious issues remaining is whether the state’s minimum wage should be increased to $15 an hour. This issue does not have to be included in this year’s budget, but rather could be accomplished in a standalone bill. However, the governor and Assembly majority, which is dominated by Downstate legislators, believe their best chance of instituting the 67 percent increase in the minimum wage is to include it in the budget. This way, legislators who may be opposed to such a substantial increase in the minimum wage would be forced to vote for it or otherwise vote against other priorities such as increasing school aid or middle-class tax cuts, which they support. 

Constituents who have reached out to my office on the proposed $15 an hour minimum-wage proposal have been overwhelmingly opposed. My office sent out a survey to business owners within my district, and of the nearly 100 responses we received back, about 90 percent of those opposed the increase. About 64 percent said that the wage hike would either force them to lay off workers or worse, close their doors.

My office has also heard from not-for-profits, particularly in the health-care field, who rely on government funding for revenue. They have indicated that unless we increase funding for them in tandem with the mandated wage increase (mainly through Medicaid reimbursement), they will not be able to provide the services they currently provide to our community. Farmers, who traditionally have very tight profit margins, have also been vocal in their opposition to the $15 an hour minimum wage. 

It is difficult to comprehend how businesses won’t be forced to reinvent themselves in the face of such a mandated increase. Likely, the increase will force businesses to limit their hiring, cut employee hours, and automate, where possible.

In my mind, a better way to help those who are at the low-end of the pay scale would be to expand the earned income tax credit (EITC). The EITC is a federal and state tax credit for low- and moderate-income working families and individuals. The EITC is refundable so that if the credit exceeds a low-wage worker’s income-tax liability, both the state and federal government will refund the balance to the taxpayer. In order to receive the EITC, the taxpayer must have earnings from employment. New York’s EITC supplements the federal EITC and is equal to 30 percent of the federal EITC.

In contrast to a minimum-wage increase, an increase in the EITC on the state level directly targets low- and moderate-waged workers. Further, it encourages people to work, because in order to receive the EITC you must have a job. To help low-wage income earners lift themselves out of poverty, we should raise the state EITC to 45 percent of the federal EITC. This would provide additional incentive for people to find work and provide them with the earnings necessary to support themselves and their families.          

William (Will) A. Barclay is the Republican representative of the 120th New York Assembly District, which encompasses most of Oswego County, including the cities of Oswego and Fulton, as well as the town of Lysander in Onondaga County and town of Ellisburg in Jefferson County. Contact him at barclaw@assembly.state.ny.us, or (315) 598-5185.