Unemployment rates are often viewed as an indicator of how the economy is doing, and these rates do provide valuable insight on economic activity. 

However, because of how the unemployment rates are calculated, they should not be the sole assessment in determining the health of the economy. The current unemployment rate in New York state is 4.9 percent. From a statewide perspective, this is good because it shows a measure of economic growth since the recession when the rate was almost 9 percent. Unfortunately, upon closer inspection, the reductions in unemployment rates are mainly attributed to job gains being made in the Downstate and New York City region — not in Upstate. This prompts the real question: why is upstate New York lagging behind in economic and job growth.

Recently, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli examined the issue of employment growth in New York in the report, “Labor Force Trends in New York State.” The report takes a close look at the unemployment rates and makes comparisons among regions and analyzes other workforce data. Interestingly, the report affirmed some of the same beliefs that I and many of my colleagues in the legislature have been expressing: despite some gains, the upstate New York economy is struggling. 

The report found that all 10 labor-market regions of the state saw a drop in unemployment rates, however, the comptroller’s office points out that these numbers are somewhat misleading. The comptroller found that the reduction wasn’t because more people have jobs, rather, there are fewer people in these regions looking for jobs. While that may sound like the same thing, it is not.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the unemployment rate each month and looks at data for each region and county. The unemployment rate only represents the number of people who have tried to find work within the last four weeks but have been unsuccessful. In other words, the rate does not account for the people who have stopped looking for work or have actually moved out of the area or the state. If these statistics included these populations, the unemployment rate would be much higher. Also, while the unemployment rates have improved, from 2011 to 2016, in upstate New York, the overall number of jobs has declined. Statewide, the labor force rose only by 0.7 percent during the same period, compared to a national increase of 3.6 percent.

Population loss is a contributing factor. Only 16 of New York’s 62 counties have gained population since 2010. With a few exceptions, most gains were recorded downstate. In 2014, New York lost its ranking as the third most populous state in the U.S. to Florida. Locally, Oswego County lost 2.6 percent of its population from 2010 to 2016. During that same 6

-year span, Onondaga County lost 0.2 percent and Jefferson County lost 1.9 percent. This population loss puts added strain on local governments that are tasked with providing virtually the same level of services with fewer residents. This only adds to the taxpayer burden and makes the whole state less appealing to prospective or existing residents. 

A loss in population also has political consequences. Following the 2010 census, New York lost two congressional districts due to population decline. Federal and state funding is tied to population so this outward migration affects not only the labor force but also government aid.

The comptroller’s report confirms once again that New York needs to focus its policies and legislation on being friendlier to businesses by reducing the regulatory and tax burdens. Small businesses and manufacturers are the backbone of a strong economy. Creating a welcoming business environment would eventually add to the tax base and create jobs. This, in turn, would reduce unemployment. While the job-creation numbers look bleak, there is hope. We have great schools, an abundance of natural resources, comparatively low crime rates, and caring communities. By enacting policies that spur the economy rather than hinder it, Albany could accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.                            

William (Will) A. Barclay is the Republican representative of the 120th New York Assembly District, which encompasses most of Oswego County, including the cities of Oswego and Fulton, as well as the town of Lysander in Onondaga County and town of Ellisburg in Jefferson County. Contact him at barclaw@assembly.state.ny.us, or (315) 598-5185.

The whacky North Korean leader revealed a few things recently. One is that the country has learned how to make hydrogen bombs. The other is that our intelligence agencies don’t have much of what they are named for — intelligence.

In other words, the agencies missed whacko’s H-bomb. They figured he was a few years away from this bomb.

This will make another plaque on the walls of the CIA. It will sit nicely alongside the plaque for missing the ICBMs of North Korea. Our intelligence guys assured us they would not arrive for years.

We ought to admit the obvious. That the only difference between the CIA and you is the money. You don’t know when the North Koreans will do something significant. Neither does the CIA. But they get paid to know nothing.

In the last few months we have seen transcripts of our president’s chats with foreign leaders. We know what President Trump and Mexico’s leader said to each other. We know the conversation between Australia’s leader and Trump.

Wow, somebody revealed the secret conversations of the leader of the free world? We had better catch that bird. Right. We have thousands of intelligence agents. Yet none of them know who leaked the conversations.

The Russians interfered with our elections. Yes, we have a dossier here … Wait a minute. We have emails here … Wait. Well, we have something around here somewhere that proves something or the other.

Yes or no, did Saddam Hussein have an active program for weapons of mass destruction? Our intelligence agencies said yes. The answer was no.

The intelligence agencies made similar screw-ups with Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. And with the results that would come from the uprisings in the “Arab Spring.”

The agencies bungled information that should have warned us of 9/11.

Imagine the boasting that must go on at reunions of the old agents. “You screwed up 9-11? That’s nothing. We missed the collapse of the Soviet Union. That was a biggie.”

“Wait a minute. You missed the collapse? We got the population of the Soviets wrong by about 20 million. Top that!”

How do we justify paying these intelligence guys? I mean what is the point of having these agencies and their army of agents? Surely, we could find better uses for the money. And if these agents are on tenure, maybe we could set them to painting the White House fence.

While they are doing that, they might stumble over the idiots. The ones who keep climbing over it on their stroll across the lawn to the White House. Thank you, Secret Service, — whose motto is “What happens in Washington … we’ll get back to you on.”

Here is another money-saving idea. We could hollow-out these intelligence agencies. Sack all the agents, the lot. But pretend that we still employ them.

Then, we could pay a couple of kids to use their IT skills to tell us what we need to know. They could hardly do any worse than the many intelligence agents for which we pay millions.

Or we could outsource all our intelligence gathering to the Israelis. They seem to know what is going on in the undercover world. We surely don’t.

The first thing they could reveal to us is where the North Korean generals get those stupid-looking hats.

From Tom…as in Morgan                         

Tom Morgan writes about political, financial, and other subjects from his home near Oneonta. You can write Tom at tomasinmorgan@yahoo.com. You can read more of his writing at tomasinmorgan.com