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The Importance of Generating 3 Percent GDP Growth
Our U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 3 percent or more in each of the last two quarters. “So, what, who cares?” — some will say. Many people react this way when they see GDP figures. They scorn the attention people give to them. “Who cares? Doesn’t affect me. 2 percent GDP or 3 percent […]
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Our U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 3 percent or more in each of the last two quarters. “So, what, who cares?” — some will say.
Many people react this way when they see GDP figures. They scorn the attention people give to them. “Who cares? Doesn’t affect me. 2 percent GDP or 3 percent GDP. What’s the big deal? It’s only a 1 percent difference.”
I answer that GDP is similar to your temperature. If your temperature is up a degree, we know something is going on in your body. Something more than the ordinary.
GDP is a measure of what the country produces. The products all of us churn out. The services as well.
Economists measure your economy in a hundred additional ways. They split hairs over this figure and ponder that trend.
Doctors do the same with your vital signs. They split hairs over your blood and urine samples and imaging.
Through all their tests, readings, and ponderings, docs keep an eye on your temperature.
Through all the tests, readings, and ponderings, economists keep an eye on your GDP.
“Yeah, but GDP going up only means big companies are making more money. And the rich are getting richer. I’m on a salary. It doesn’t affect me,” some may say.
It does affect you. Here is how GDP does affect most everyone.
When GDP increases, the economy creates more jobs. More jobs obviously mean more people go to work. More people working is good for the health of the country. Good for the morale of the country. And good for the government coffers.
When more people work, government collects more taxes — because those workers pay taxes. What does government do with that extra money? It ends up funding more programs. It is more likely to fix your highways sooner. It’s more likely to add to its many programs that help your schools. And help your state. And help your city.
It is also more likely to lower your taxes. Or less likely to raise them. Because the rising GDP has given the government more money to play with.
Maybe you love environmental programs. Maybe you love welfare programs. Or more ships in our navy. Whatever your favorite government program is, a rising GDP is likely to help that program.
This is true even when politicians take the knife to programs. The cuts they make are likely to be smaller if the money flowing into government is growing. Which it will be when GDP is growing at a faster pace.
The GDP has been in the news lately. That is because it has grown at a 3 percent clip or higher in the last couple quarters. This is a faster growth rate than during President Obama’s two terms.
President Obama’s defenders argued that the slow rate did not matter. It did. Because the low growth rate reduced the flow of tax money into government, this forced Washington to borrow even more to pay its bills.
Did Obama’s economic policies cause the low GDP numbers?
Well, Obama did add a lot of taxes and regulations. Such moves rarely stimulate economies. And the timing was not good. The economy was trying to recover from a major recession. It did not need more taxes and regulations at that point.
Have President Trump’s policies spurred the quicker GDP growth?
Well, Trump has slashed the number of regulations. And proposed tax-rate cuts and the elimination of some taxes, pending Congressional action. Such measures usually stimulate economies.
A few robins don’t a summer make. Any more than two quarters of 3 percent GDP growth make for a huge expansion.
However, any expansion is encouraging. A lot of economists scoffed at the possibility of 3 percent and even 4 percent growth. But many of them were all wet over the Obama policies. They promised rapid growth that never came in the Obama years. They prompted Joe Biden to boldly promise the Summer of Recovery. Right.
Set aside your political preferences. Don’t worry about who gets the credit. Be thankful whenever you see the GDP expand at 3 percent or higher.
From Tom…as in Morgan.
Tom Morgan writes about political, financial, and other subjects from his home near Oneonta. You can write to Tom at tomasinmorgan@yahoo.com. You can read more of his writing at tomasinmorgan.com
When Watching the Debate on Taxes, Remember the Debt
As Republicans in Congress move forward on their tax plan, it’s worth remembering one thing: whatever the legislative particulars, keep your eye on the plan’s impact on the federal debt. Our debt load is already worrisome (the U.S. national debt is now about $20.5 trillion). It’s almost certainly going to get worse. At some point,
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As Republicans in Congress move forward on their tax plan, it’s worth remembering one thing: whatever the legislative particulars, keep your eye on the plan’s impact on the federal debt. Our debt load is already worrisome (the U.S. national debt is now about $20.5 trillion). It’s almost certainly going to get worse.
At some point, this will become unsustainable — we just don’t know exactly when. One common measure of the debt problem is to compare the total federal debt to our gross domestic product (GDP). This basically measures whether a country’s economy is healthy enough to carry its debt burden. When Presidents Carter and Reagan were speaking out against the dangers of our large national debt, it stood at about 30 percent of GDP. Today, it is at 105 percent.
As the debt grows larger, it weighs more heavily on economic growth, crowds out private investment, creates economic uncertainty, dumps a burden on our children, and limits our ability as a nation to deal with unforeseen events. How we handle it will have a profound impact on our future and our role in the world.
The problem is that regardless of what our political leaders say about deficits and debt, their actions tend to belie their words: they continue expensive federal programs and lavish tax breaks on favored constituencies without regard to the long-term fiscal impact. I’ve come to believe that deficits will likely continue — with increasing debt — until some financial crisis focuses our attention on the serious imbalance between our taxes and spending.
Which brings us to the current move for tax “reform.” Tax reform can have several meritorious goals, including establishing a more equitable tax system, encouraging economic growth, and imposing fiscal restraint. What I don’t see in the current debate is much more than lip service to any of these goals.
What always worries me about tax debate on Capitol Hill is that it begins with a lot of talk about reform, and usually ends with a lot of talk about tax cuts. This isn’t surprising. Tax cuts are popular. Tax reform, which helps some people and hurts others, is politically treacherous.
So, as you watch the debate on Capitol Hill, use your judgment. Tax cuts can often help the economy, but not if they balloon budget deficits and the national debt. If that happens, they’ll eventually end up lowering growth and slowing the economy.
Lee Hamilton is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at the IU School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years, representing a district in south central Indiana.
Tompkins County administrator to retire on Nov. 30
ITHACA — Tompkins County Administrator Joe Mareane announced on Nov. 13 that he has taken a medical leave from the county and has moved up his planned retirement by two months. Mareane in July had announced his plan to retire on Feb. 1, 2018. But now, to focus on his recovery, he has advised Tompkins
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ITHACA — Tompkins County Administrator Joe Mareane announced on Nov. 13 that he has taken a medical leave from the county and has moved up his planned retirement by two months.
Mareane in July had announced his plan to retire on Feb. 1, 2018. But now, to focus on his recovery, he has advised Tompkins County Legislature Chair Michael Lane of his intent to “accelerate” his retirement date to Nov. 30, according to a news release from Lane.
Mareane has served as Tompkins County administrator since leaving his position as Onondaga County’s chief fiscal officer in October 2008.
Tompkins County Deputy Administrator Paula Younger will serve as interim administrator pending the selection of a replacement for Mareane — a process that’s underway, per the county. Younger has been the county’s deputy administrator for the past 11 years.
Pinckney Hugo Group has hired LAUREN SWENSON as an assistant account manager, and ALEX SZELEWSKI as a junior digital designer. Prior to joining Pinckney Hugo Group, Swenson gained experience as a brand activation manager and sales representative at Anheuser-Busch. She has a bachelor’s degree in communication studies from The College at Brockport, State University of
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Pinckney Hugo Group has hired LAUREN SWENSON as an assistant account manager, and ALEX SZELEWSKI as a junior digital designer. Prior to joining Pinckney Hugo Group, Swenson gained experience as a brand activation manager and sales representative at Anheuser-Busch. She has a bachelor’s degree in communication studies from The College at Brockport, State University of New York. Szelewski has a master’s degree in advertising from the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications at Syracuse University and a bachelor’s degree from Binghamton University.
MARK DEDRICK has joined Keystone Associates Architects, Engineers and Surveyors, LLC as a code analysis official in the architectural department. He is a building code and construction professional with more than 40 years of experience in a variety of industry functions. He has collaborated with local, state, and international agencies to develop building and fire
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MARK DEDRICK has joined Keystone Associates Architects, Engineers and Surveyors, LLC as a code analysis official in the architectural department. He is a building code and construction professional with more than 40 years of experience in a variety of industry functions. He has collaborated with local, state, and international agencies to develop building and fire codes, and managed building and fire code inspectors for local municipalities. Dedrick is a graduate of SUNY Delhi and has taught building codes and standards classes at SUNY Broome as well as for the New York State Department of Homeland Security.
New York Business Development Corporation (NYBDC) has hired BENJAMIN ALEXANDER. As a commercial loan officer at NYBDC and affiliates The 504 Company and Excelsior Growth Fund, he will be working from the Syracuse office to support small-business owners throughout Central New York and the North Country. Alexander comes to NYBDC after six years of experience
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New York Business Development Corporation (NYBDC) has hired BENJAMIN ALEXANDER. As a commercial loan officer at NYBDC and affiliates The 504 Company and Excelsior Growth Fund, he will be working from the Syracuse office to support small-business owners throughout Central New York and the North Country. Alexander comes to NYBDC after six years of experience in banking, most recently as a small-business loan underwriter for NBT Bank.
Generations Bank has hired JERRY MORAN as VP – people and performance. He will work from the bank’s headquarters in Seneca Falls. Moran brings more 30 years of HR experience to his position.
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Generations Bank has hired JERRY MORAN as VP – people and performance. He will work from the bank’s headquarters in Seneca Falls. Moran brings more 30 years of HR experience to his position.
MICHELLE BUNNER has joined Tompkins Financial Advisors as trust officer. She is based in the Ithaca office on the CNY team. Bunner has four years of experience in the industry. Prior to joining Tompkins, she was a consultant at ACA Compliance Group, where she advised global investment banking, securities, and investment management firms. Bunner graduated
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MICHELLE BUNNER has joined Tompkins Financial Advisors as trust officer. She is based in the Ithaca office on the CNY team. Bunner has four years of experience in the industry. Prior to joining Tompkins, she was a consultant at ACA Compliance Group, where she advised global investment banking, securities, and investment management firms. Bunner graduated from the University of Pittsburgh School of Law and has a bachelor’s degree in communications from the University of Pittsburgh.
JEFF BESIO has joined Arctic Risk Specialists as regional sales director of commercial lines for the Northeast region. He has more than 18 years of sales experience in the automotive industry, where, according to his LinkedIn profile, he was a sales consultant at Central New York automotive dealerships Davidson Ford of Clay, Shapiro Motor Sales
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JEFF BESIO has joined Arctic Risk Specialists as regional sales director of commercial lines for the Northeast region. He has more than 18 years of sales experience in the automotive industry, where, according to his LinkedIn profile, he was a sales consultant at Central New York automotive dealerships Davidson Ford of Clay, Shapiro Motor Sales in Oswego, and Nissan North. Besio attended St. John Fisher College and received his New York State Property and Casualty Broker’s License from Bryant & Stratton College.
Gilroy Kernan & Gilroy Inc. (GKG) has appointed MICHELE LUKE as director of client strategy for employee benefits. She brings nearly three decades of insurance experience to the post, in both the benefits and property/casualty sectors. Luke was most recently director of Central New York sales, ancillary, and reinsurance at MVP Health Care. She previously
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Gilroy Kernan & Gilroy Inc. (GKG) has appointed MICHELE LUKE as director of client strategy for employee benefits. She brings nearly three decades of insurance experience to the post, in both the benefits and property/casualty sectors. Luke was most recently director of Central New York sales, ancillary, and reinsurance at MVP Health Care. She previously was a sales executive with Capital District Physicians’ Health Plan. Luke began her career with the Day & Reed agency in Ilion. She holds an associate degree in sales and marketing from Herkimer County Community College.
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