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How Could They All Be So Wrong?
I came upon a Fortune Magazine investment guide for the upcoming year. It carried articles by and about various investment wizards. When it came to the stock market, the wizards said beware. Stocks are way too expensive, they told us. The market is likely to tank. Or make only modest gains. The headline for the […]
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I came upon a Fortune Magazine investment guide for the upcoming year.
It carried articles by and about various investment wizards.
When it came to the stock market, the wizards said beware. Stocks are way too expensive, they told us. The market is likely to tank. Or make only modest gains. The headline for the main article was “Trump — Why the Market is Stacked Against Him?”
When it came to the economy, the wizards told us it would probably stink. There were too many headwinds against it.
I read their predictions carefully. After all, these are top-shelf experts. They work for major Wall Street firms. Fortune rounded them up because they are among the best in their field.
I concentrated on their reasons. This trend is weak. That trend is strong. The Fed will do this. Inflation will do that. The workforce has these problems. History tells us times will be tough. The numbers on the economy tell the story. And the story is a sad one.
Their gloom pretty much convinced me. When it comes to stocks and the economy, the year ahead looks lousy.
As I got further into the articles, a few things sounded odd. This prompted me to flip back to the cover of the magazine. Where I discovered it was a year old. Fortune published it shortly after Trump’s election. What I was reading were predictions for 2017.
Wow. These experts got everything wrong. After all, the S&P 500 soared nearly 22 percent (with dividends reinvested) in 2017, and the NASDAQ jumped almost 30 percent.
Next, I Googled predictions from experts whom Yahoo Finance hosted — back in January 2017. Sixteen of them. They predicted virtually no growth in stocks for 2017.
If they were weather forecasters, they would have sent you sailing into the teeth of the last hurricane. If they were your doctors, you would be dead — or in pain from their many surgeries on you.
So, what went on here? How could these brilliant people be so wrong about predicting what would happen to the stock market in 2017?
Several ingredients at play here. Would you like to talk with an expert on the economy? Would you like to get close to an expert on stocks? Plonk your bottom on a barstool in your nearest tavern. Over a few nights, you will get a bellyful of predictions from experts.
Their wording won’t be fancy like the wording of the experts in Fortune. But they will be as accurate as those you find in big investment magazines. As accurate as Fortune’s wizards. As accurate as others, like Bloomberg Business online. As accurate as the guys on investment shows on TV.
The reality is that those experts don’t know what they are jabbering about. Or writing about. Their predictions are worthless. Fortune prints them because it needs to stick something between the ads.
The super reality is that nobody consistently predicts what the economy will do. Or what the stock market will do. Not the wizards in Fortune. Not the top government analysts. Not the tavern experts.
It’s not that they are stupid. The problem is that there is no way to predict such things accurately. Sorry.
One of the many reasons why the Fortune wizards were wrong is that they let their emotions color their thinking. Like many of their colleagues, they don’t like Trump. Maybe it’s his ties. Or his hair. Or his nasty tweets. Or his boasting. Or his arrogance. Bottom line: They don’t like him. To many folks in the Big Apple, Trump is a slob.
Nothing wrong with that. Unless you are in the prediction business. In this instance, the wizards’ prejudice pointed their noses in the wrong direction. Up.
Even if they were not prejudiced, there is a 50 percent chance they would be wrong about the market and the economy. That is just the way things are.
The big gain in the stock market that these gurus missed is equivalent to your guide taking you to Staten Island for the St. Patrick’s Day parade — which happens to occur in Manhattan.
The gurus also missed the healthy GDP figures on the economy throughout the year.
(By the way, their tips for individual stocks did well. Their attitude was that certain stocks might weather the storm the market was likely to suffer. The storm did not come. Instead the rising tide lifted most boats — including their stock picks.)
So, how do you suppose stocks will do in 2018? What do you predict our GDP and employment figures will be? Don’t be meek. Your guess is as good as mine. As good as those of some of the top guys on Wall Street. As good as those of the Gurus Maximus of government.
You know as much as they do. Whether you occupy a barstool or an easy chair.
From Tom…as in Morgan.
Tom Morgan writes about political, financial, and other subjects from his home near Oneonta. You can write to Tom at tomasinmorgan@yahoo.com. You can read more of his writing at tomasinmorgan.com
Pathfinder Bancorp increases quarterly dividend
OSWEGO — Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: PBHC), holding company for Pathfinder Bank, recently declared a quarterly cash dividend of 5.75 cents per share on its common stock for the fiscal quarter ending Dec. 31. That’s up from the 5.5 cents a share it paid in the previous quarter. It’s the third straight quarter in which
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OSWEGO — Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: PBHC), holding company for Pathfinder Bank, recently declared a quarterly cash dividend of 5.75 cents per share on its common stock for the fiscal quarter ending Dec. 31. That’s up from the 5.5 cents a share it paid in the previous quarter.
It’s the third straight quarter in which Pathfinder has boosted its dividend by a quarter of a cent.
The new, increased dividend will be payable to all Pathfinder shareholders of record on Jan. 12 and will be paid on Feb. 3, the banking company announced in a news release.
At Pathfinder’s current stock price, the dividend payment yields about 1.4 percent on an annual basis.
Pathfinder Bank is a New York state–chartered savings bank headquartered in Oswego. The bank has nine full-service branches located in its market areas of Oswego and Onondaga counties.
Pathfinder Bank ranks first in deposit market share in Oswego County with a 42 percent share of all deposits, according to the latest FDIC data from June 30, 2017. The bank also has the most branch offices in the county with seven.
Thomas W. Schneider is president and CEO of Pathfinder Bancorp.
Pinckney Hugo Group has hired ZACH ADAMS as director of brand insight, ALEX WALSH as a public relations account manager, and JANE SCHIRTZ as an assistant account manager. Adams previously worked as a senior research strategist and as a research analyst at a local research firm. He is also an adjunct professor at Syracuse University.
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Pinckney Hugo Group has hired ZACH ADAMS as director of brand insight, ALEX WALSH as a public relations account manager, and JANE SCHIRTZ as an assistant account manager. Adams previously worked as a senior research strategist and as a research analyst at a local research firm. He is also an adjunct professor at Syracuse University. Adams has a bachelor’s degree in marketing from Le Moyne College. Walsh previously worked as a public information specialist for Onondaga County and as a legislative aide for a New York State senator. He has a bachelor’s degree from the State University of New York at Oswego. Schirtz previously served as an intern at Pinckney Hugo Group while completing her bachelor’s degree in business administration at SUNY Oswego.
The Landmark Theatre board of trustees has named MICHAEL H. INTAGLIETTA executive director of the Landmark Theatre in downtown Syracuse. He has been the general manager of the theatre since October 2015. Intaglietta brings extensive experience, including time as the administrative director for the Redhouse Arts Center and as a previous director of operations for
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The Landmark Theatre board of trustees has named MICHAEL H. INTAGLIETTA executive director of the Landmark Theatre in downtown Syracuse. He has been the general manager of the theatre since October 2015. Intaglietta brings extensive experience, including time as the administrative director for the Redhouse Arts Center and as a previous director of operations for CNY Arts. He is currently the VP of the Arts and Culture Leadership Alliance of Central New York.
Keystone Associates Architects, Engineers and Surveyors, LLC has hired JEFF PALERMO as a designer in its Civil Engineering Department. He has more than five years of experience in project design, project management, construction management, and building inspections. Palermo is a registered engineer intern (E.I.) and holds a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from the West
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Keystone Associates Architects, Engineers and Surveyors, LLC has hired JEFF PALERMO as a designer in its Civil Engineering Department. He has more than five years of experience in project design, project management, construction management, and building inspections. Palermo is a registered engineer intern (E.I.) and holds a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from the West Virginia University College of Engineering.
TAYLOR J. JENNINGS and BRIAN M. NICHOLSON of Barton & Loguidice have received their licenses as professional engineers in New York State and were recently promoted to project engineers. Jennings is a member of the firm’s Water/Wastewater Group. He is a graduate of Clarkson University and has a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering. Nicholson is
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TAYLOR J. JENNINGS and BRIAN M. NICHOLSON of Barton & Loguidice have received their licenses as professional engineers in New York State and were recently promoted to project engineers. Jennings is a member of the firm’s Water/Wastewater Group. He is a graduate of Clarkson University and has a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering. Nicholson is a member of the firm’s Sustainable Planning & Design Group. He has a bachelor’s degree in environmental resources engineering from SUNY-ESF.
The Hayner Hoyt Corporation has hired STEPHEN (STU) CAVUTOAS its new director of safety. After 31 years with the Syracuse Fire Department, he has extensive experience with making safe conditions out of unsafe places. As the former deputy chief, Cavutoas was in charge of fire prevention, public education, new construction, and unsafe buildings. He learned
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The Hayner Hoyt Corporation has hired STEPHEN (STU) CAVUTOAS its new director of safety. After 31 years with the Syracuse Fire Department, he has extensive experience with making safe conditions out of unsafe places. As the former deputy chief, Cavutoas was in charge of fire prevention, public education, new construction, and unsafe buildings. He learned to read blueprints and went to job sites to approve all plans for construction to ensure fire codes were being met.
JIM CONDON has joined Hayner Hoyt in a new position as its mechanical, electrical, and plumbing manager. He brings more than 35 years of experience in residential, industrial, and commercial mechanical systems including medical gas systems and HVAC controls. Condon has held positions as an HVAC/plumbing project manager/estimator at John W. Danforth and C&S Companies and has acted as a supervisor on major plumbing and HVAC projects at Burns Brothers Mechanical.
T. Gschwender & Associates, Inc.
T. Gschwender & Associates, Inc. (TGA) has hired JOHN PISZAK, STEVE AMBROSE, and SCOTT ROSE. Piszak has comprehensive banking expertise gained from more than 45 years as a top level executive. He was the chief credit/risk officer and executive VP at Fidelity Bank in Pennsylvania, from which he retired. Piszak’s impressive credit background includes: senior
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T. Gschwender & Associates, Inc. (TGA) has hired JOHN PISZAK, STEVE AMBROSE, and SCOTT ROSE. Piszak has comprehensive banking expertise gained from more than 45 years as a top level executive. He was the chief credit/risk officer and executive VP at Fidelity Bank in Pennsylvania, from which he retired. Piszak’s impressive credit background includes: senior manager in charge of all commercial and consumer lending as well as member of top management team who oversaw credit policy, compliance, and loan review.
As a bank executive with nearly 40 years in the industry, Ambrose joined TGA after his recent retirement from Five Star Bank, where he was the senior VP/loan review/workout group manager. He is also a past president of the Rochester chapter of Bank Administration Institute and an instructor for the Rochester chapter of the American Institute of Banking.
Rose is a financial professional with more than 30 years in the field. He has a strong credit background with a focus on small business, government, large corporate, and not-for-profit lending. Most recently, Rose was the VP/relationship manager for government banking at First Niagara. He also gained expertise from his many years with KeyBank and JP Morgan Chase/Chemical Bank. Rose is a U.S. Marine Corp veteran.
ROBERT MILLER has joined the Syracuse branch of AXA Advisors, LLC. He holds a bachelor’s degree in marketing from the University of Massachusetts and has also earned his life and health, Series 7 and Series 63 licenses.
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ROBERT MILLER has joined the Syracuse branch of AXA Advisors, LLC. He holds a bachelor’s degree in marketing from the University of Massachusetts and has also earned his life and health, Series 7 and Series 63 licenses.
SANDRA TILLOTSON has been appointed nurse recruiter with Nurse Connection Staffing Inc. (NCS) at the CNY regional office located in Liverpool. She comes to NCS with more than 16 years of recruitment and admissions experience as a graduate recruitment coordinator at SUNY Upstate Medical University, College of Graduate Studies.
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SANDRA TILLOTSON has been appointed nurse recruiter with Nurse Connection Staffing Inc. (NCS) at the CNY regional office located in Liverpool. She comes to NCS with more than 16 years of recruitment and admissions experience as a graduate recruitment coordinator at SUNY Upstate Medical University, College of Graduate Studies.
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