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When It Comes to Trump, There is a Little Secret
President Donald Trump confounds his critics and friends. Maybe he confounds you. But you can understand a lot about Trump if you follow my friend John’s advice. John is a big-time corporate headhunter. He finds people to fill jobs that pay multi-millions. He gets paid only if he finds the perfect executives. When they flop, […]
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President Donald Trump confounds his critics and friends. Maybe he confounds you. But you can understand a lot about Trump if you follow my friend John’s advice.
John is a big-time corporate headhunter. He finds people to fill jobs that pay multi-millions. He gets paid only if he finds the perfect executives. When they flop, he loses much of his fee. So he is careful in his work.
“Ignore most of what a job candidate promises,” is John’s advice. “But focus, utterly focus, on what he or she has done. His or her past reveals the likely future.”
This is the secret if you wish to understand Trump. Focus on what he did as a developer.
Consider the critics, the commentators, bureaucrats, diplomats, world leaders, and other politicians. The multitude he confounds and confuses. Few of them have worked in business. Fewer have owned a business. Virtually none have signed paychecks for armies of workers. Few, if any, have negotiated as developers must every day. Few even understand what a developer is and does.
A good developer dreams. You see a swamp and he dreams of a shopping mall. You see sand and water and he envisions a resort and golf course. You see wasteland and he dreams of a housing development.
A good developer imagines what others cannot. What others scurry from as risks, he sees and seizes as opportunities. He brims with confidence when others bog down in fear.
A good developer negotiates endlessly. Haggling is the lifeblood of his business. He must push and shove, cajole, persuade, pressure, compromise, and flex — with zoning overlords, politicians, lawyers galore, sellers, unions, contractors, and suppliers. And inspectors, bankers, investors, and tenants.
Is it any wonder great developers are great persuaders? They must persuade to survive. Is it any wonder Trump negotiates totally differently from Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Kerry, as well as previous presidents? His history is as different from theirs as steel from marshmallow.
Is it any wonder Trump created a video for North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and crew to view in Singapore? Most critics ignored it or downplayed it. A few scoffed at it. This is because they know so little of business. And they know nothing of how developers persuade.
The video projected the dream of prosperity for Kim’s country. It imagined resorts on the sands where Kim launches missiles. It urged Kim to dream of a wealth of goods to replace the poverty his people suffer. It portrayed high-speed trains and skylines of handsome buildings. (Watch the video for yourself. Google “White House Film for Kim.”)
Leading up to this, Trump rattled sabers. He lined up support from China, South Korea, Japan, and other neighbors. He invoked sanctions and threatened more. He displayed our military might — and made clear we would use it if Kim continued to play idiot.
This is how a developer would approach the politicians of a big city. “Let us dream together of turning your unused railyards into a shopping mecca. Imagine this swampy area as the future home of a sports arena. We have lined up support throughout your city. However, if this does not win your favor, we don’t need to be here. Philadelphia is begging us to come. So is Baltimore.”
Does this sound like the approach Obama, Clinton, and Kerry took with Iran? They negotiated a flimsy agreement. They wrote checks for countless billions. They were rolled. They thought they had persuaded Iran to change the nuclear future of the country. Right. They did little more than persuade Iran to take a planeload of cash.
A good developer has many tricks of persuasion up his sleeve. Trump does. Many of them will confound critics, diplomats, and bureaucrats in the future. Because they do not understand business. They are ignorant of how developers think and work. They peer through lenses crafted from their own experiences. Experiences so different from Trump’s.
The secret to understanding much of what Trump does now is to know what he did, as a developer. His past achievements will likely be reflected in his future.
Critics reading this will howl that some of his past projects failed. They did. A mighty small percentage of them. Better to look at what he did in their wake.
From Tom…as in Morgan.
Tom Morgan writes about political, financial, and other subjects from his home in upstate New York. You can write to Tom at tomasinmorgan@yahoo.com. You can read more of his writing at tomasinmorgan.com
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Welch Allyn board co-chair discusses decision to sell company to Hill-Rom
SKANEATELES FALLS — The board of directors of Welch Allyn Inc. decided to sell the Skaneateles Falls–based manufacturer of medical-diagnostic equipment to Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRC) to get more “scale and relevance” in a consolidating health-care industry. That’s according to Eric Allyn, co-chairman of the Welch Allyn board of directors and a Welch
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SKANEATELES FALLS — The board of directors of Welch Allyn Inc. decided to sell the Skaneateles Falls–based manufacturer of medical-diagnostic equipment to Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRC) to get more “scale and relevance” in a consolidating health-care industry.
That’s according to Eric Allyn, co-chairman of the Welch Allyn board of directors and a Welch Allyn founding family member.
Allyn is the great grandson of company co-founder William Noah Allyn.
He spoke with CNYBJ on June 18, the day after Hill-Rom announced its planned acquisition of Welch Allyn for about $2.05 billion in cash and stock, which is expected to close in September. Hill-Rom, a medical-technology company, has corporate offices in Chicago, Illinois, and Batesville, Indiana, according to its website.
Welch Allyn’s board of directors started the process “a number of months ago,” says Allyn.
“Those discussions became more and more frank over the last few years as the business pressures became … started to limit our growth,” he adds.
John Greisch will be the CEO of the combined company. Hill-Rom expects that “certain members of Welch Allyn’s senior management will join the company.”
Welch Allyn CEO Steve Meyer will have an “interim role,” and the firm currently has executives “who will no longer be with us when this transition is done,” says Allyn.
It’s a “small number” of executives, and they “know who they are,” he adds.
CNYBJ also asked if the campus in Skaneateles Falls would retain the Welch Allyn name.
“It will stay Welch Allyn,” says Allyn. “Our brand is absolutely going to survive this.”
He noted that Hill-Rom spent “a lot of money” for the Welch Allyn brand.
“This by far is a better path for our Skaneateles facility than a go-it-alone path,” says Allyn.
Changing industry
Allyn remembers the days when individual doctor’s offices were their own businesses and “made up their own mind” to buy medical products.
“We kind of liked that,” he says.
Over the last 10 to 15 years, doctor’s office groups have merged with one another and formed multi-specialty clinics. The process has included hospitals acquiring the clinics and perhaps other hospitals, and in some cases, insurance companies then bought the hospital.
“And so today’s health-care system is a hugely consolidated business,” says Allyn.
He then went on to explain what the consolidation means for Welch Allyn.
In days gone by, an individual doctor bought products “based on quality.”
Nowadays, the doctor isn’t making the purchasing decision. Rather, a purchasing agent in an integrated-delivery network (IDN) makes that choice.
The U.S. has about 50 IDNs, says Allyn, which he describes as “massive organizations.” He noted that Trinity Health, which St. Joseph’s Hospital Health Center of
Syracuse is joining, is an IDN.
Allyn contends that a sourcing manager is making the purchasing decision as the individual seeks the “lowest possible price” when seeking to purchase not one device, but 200 such products.
“This has really hurt the pricing of our products,” says Allyn.
Besides the pricing aspect, Allyn contends the industry’s consolidation has also “hurt” Welch Allyn’s business.
Doctors and hospitals know Welch Allyn, but the IDNs don’t, he says.
“We don’t have relevance because we’re not big enough relative to our customers,” Allyn contends.
At the same time, Hill-Rom addresses both concerns, Allyn says.
The firm answers the relevance question because every IDN knows Hill-Rom. The company can help Welch Allyn “when it comes to pricing because we can bundle.”
Bundling involves selling several products or services in a package deal.
He says Welch Allyn’s biggest competitors are Fairfield, Connecticut–based General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE); Amsterdam, The Netherlands–based Philips (NYSE: PHG); and Berlin, Germany–based Siemens AG, which “have a huge bundle” and can protect their prices.
“Together, Welch Allyn and Hill-Rom will be able to do just that,” he adds.
Hill-Rom also provides Welch Allyn the “global reach” it has been hoping to secure, says Allyn.
The company has tried it, but Allyn noted “the truth is it’s tough.”
Hill-Rom has a “huge” international business. The combined company’s international business will be over a billion dollars
As a point of comparison, Allyn says the local company has one employee in France, while Hill-Rom generates $100 million in sales in France annually.
He mentioned similar situations in Germany and India. Welch Allyn has two sales people and a service employee in India, which has a population and hospital count that is “quite a bit bigger than America’s.”
Hill-Rom has a presence in India, China, and Russia, enabling its sales representatives to offer more than the company’s beds and operating-room equipment.
“They’re going to be able to sell our blood-pressure gauges … odoscopes, thermometers, and monitors,” says Allyn.
Hill-Rom expects the combined company will generate $2.6 billion in revenue and produce more than $500 million in adjusted EBITDA.
EBITDA is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Local impact
The 75 Welch Allyn shareholders will own 13 percent of the combined company and “will be the biggest [single shareholder group] in Hill-Rom by far,” says Allyn.
When asked if any members of the Welch Allyn board become part of the Hill-Rom board of directors, Allyn indicated it has “not been determined.”
“What’s been important has been our employees and our brand and having the Welch Allyn name survive,” says Allyn.
When asked about the Welch Allyn employee count, Allyn says that Hill-Rom has a “tremendous commitment” to the Skaneateles Falls and Tijuana, Mexico facilities of Welch Allyn.
“They want our efficiency. They want the people of Skaneateles and the people of Tijuana. They love what we do here,” says Allyn.
He also noted Hill-Rom hasn’t made decisions on its existing facilities “and where those products will go.”
Allyn also shared what Hill-Rom CEO John Griesch told Welch Allyn employees during a visit on June 17.
“You folks are very efficient. You build products really well, and if you keep doing that well, we could bring a lot more products here,” Allyn says, paraphrasing Greisch’s comments.
Allyn also noted that he “can’t talk about individual jobs” because some people “might not be here next year in an individual level.”
Before being acquired itself, Welch Allyn had made several acquisitions in recent months, including buying most of the assets of White Plains, New York–based
Scale Tronix in May; Knoxville, Tennessee–based Hubble Telemedical in January; and HealthInterlink of Omaha, Nebraska in December.
CNYBJ asked if the transactions played any role in preparing Welch Allyn for the Hill-Rom acquisition.
Allyn says they are related, noting the firm “did that to try to scale up ourselves.”
Welch Allyn is marking its 100th year in business in 2015, and CNYBJ asked if the acquisition announcement was planned to coincide with the anniversary or not.
“It just played out that way,” says Allyn.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

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