Upstate consumer sentiment slips in second quarter

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Statewide sentiment rises in same period Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell slightly to 68.0 in the second quarter of 2020, down 0.9 points from the last measurement of 68.9 in the year’s first quarter. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena […]

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Statewide sentiment rises in same period

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell slightly to 68.0 in the second quarter of 2020, down 0.9 points from the last measurement of 68.9 in the year’s first quarter.

That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released July 15.

Upstate’s overall sentiment of 68 was 3 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 71, which rose 4.6 points from the first quarter.

The statewide figure was 7.1 points lower than the second-quarter figure of 78.1 for the entire nation, which is down 11 points from the first-quarter measurement, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

All three indexes for New York are below their breakeven points at which optimism and pessimism balance for the second consecutive quarter, according to SRI. The national indexes dropped but the overall and current indexes remain above the breakeven point while the national future index has also fallen below the breakeven point.

“Driven by gains in both current and future sentiment in [New York City], the statewide index recovered nearly 5 points as New Yorkers try to rebound from this pandemic. The overall index, however, is below the breakeven point and is down 22 points from the end of 2019. Where pluralities of 16-17 points then said they were better off and expected a good year for the state economy, now, under the coronavirus cloud, by 8-14 points they say that they are personally worse off and that the year ahead will be a rocky one for New York State,” Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said.

In the second quarter of 2020, buying plans were up 0.5 percentage points since the first quarter to 19.3 percent for cars and trucks; increased 3.5 points to 42.1 percent for consumer electronics; edged up 1.1 points to 25.3 percent for furniture; up 0.6 points to 8.7 percent for homes; and increased 4 points to 23 percent for major home improvements.

All five buying plans are down between 9 percent (home improvements) and 21 percent (homes) from pre-coronavirus rates, SRI said.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 19 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 26 percent in the first quarter and 42 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.

In addition, 25 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, down from 27 percent in the first quarter and 41 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

SRI noted that the 25 percent gas-price concern figure represents “the lowest percentage in the 12-year history” of SRI’s tracking of the impact of gas prices on New York State consumers.

When asked about food prices, 54 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 49 percent in the first quarter and 56 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.

At the same time, 58 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, up from 55 percent in the first quarter and 58 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between June 28 and July 9 by random telephone calls to 410 New York adults via landline and cell phone. The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, according to SRI.

CNY regions’ jobless rates remain high in June

Employee Benefits & Human Resources, Subscriber Only

Unemployment rates in the Syracuse, Utica–Rome, Watertown–Fort Drum, Binghamton, and Elmira regions remained in double-digit figures in June compared to a year ago with the impact of layoffs during the COVID-19 shutdowns. The Ithaca area was the only one in the state to register a single-figure jobless rate in June. The numbers are part of

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The Ithaca area was the only one in the state to register a single-figure jobless rate in June. The numbers are part of the latest New York State Department of Labor data released July 21.

The Syracuse, Utica–Rome, and Binghamton regions lost jobs in five-digit figures between June 2019 and this past June. At the same time, the Watertown–Fort Drum, Ithaca, and Elmira regions shed jobs in four-digit figures in the same period.

That’s according to the latest monthly employment report that the NYS Department of Labor issued July 16.

Regional unemployment rates

The jobless rate in the Syracuse area was 11.9 percent in June, up from 4 percent in June 2019.

The Utica–Rome region’s unemployment rate was 10.8 percent, up from 4.4 percent; the Watertown–Fort Drum area posted 11.2 percent, up from 4.6 percent; the Binghamton region’s rate rose to 11.1 percent from 4.4 percent; the Ithaca area’s rate hit 8.9 percent, up from 3.8 percent; and the Elmira region’s jobless number was 11.9 percent in June, up from 4.1 percent in the same month a year ago.

The local unemployment data isn’t seasonally adjusted, meaning the figures don’t reflect seasonal influences such as holiday hires. The unemployment rates are calculated following procedures prescribed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the state Labor Department said.

State unemployment rate

New York state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 14.5 percent in May to 15.7 percent in June.

In June, the number of unemployed New York state residents increased by 154,000, while labor-force levels increased by 299,100. The rise in the unemployment rate — despite New York state adding 296,400 private-sector jobs — may be explained by a combination of the use of different data sources for the two figures, the use of statistical regression models to determine the unemployment rate, a growing labor force, and the impact of out-of-state workers, among other factors, the NYS Labor Department explained.

The 15.7 percent unemployment rate was higher than the U.S. unemployment rate of 11.1 percent in June.

The June statewide unemployment figure of 15.7 percent was up substantially from the 3.9 percent figure reported in June 2019, according to department figures.

The federal government calculates New York’s unemployment rate partly based upon the results of a monthly telephone survey of 3,100 state households that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts.

June jobs data

The Syracuse region lost nearly 46,000 jobs in the past year, representing a decrease of 14.1 percent.

The Utica–Rome metro region lost nearly 15,000 jobs, a decrease of about 11 percent; the Watertown–Fort Drum region shed 6,600 jobs, a decline of about 15 percent; the Binghamton region lost nearly 11,000 positions, a decrease of about 10 percent; the Ithaca region shed 4,400 jobs, a drop of about 7 percent; and the Elmira area lost more than 2,000 jobs in the past year, a dip of about 6 percent.

New York state as a whole lost nearly 1.5 million jobs, a decrease of 15.1 percent, in that 12-month period. The state economy gained more than 301,000 jobs, a 3.8 percent rise, from May to June of this year, the labor department said.

UNPAUSING CNY

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UNPAUSING CNY: Snapshots of life as Central New York reopens its economy amid the pandemic Our photo series showing life in Central New York as it reopens its economy amid the coronavirus pandemic. Flags welcome visitors to the Onondaga Historical Association (OHA) at 321 Montgomery St. in Syracuse. The museum reopened on July 1 as part

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All In Or Out? How Business Owners Can Deal With COVID’s Cloudy Future

Business Mentors, Subscriber Only

As the coronavirus pandemic continues, small businesses have reopened across the nation but certainty and optimism are a long way from being restored. Spikes in infections in many states, double-digit unemployment, consumer and lender concerns, and steep economic challenges in the wake of a long shutdown make it difficult to forecast if and when many

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As the coronavirus pandemic continues, small businesses have reopened across the nation but certainty and optimism are a long way from being restored.

Spikes in infections in many states, double-digit unemployment, consumer and lender concerns, and steep economic challenges in the wake of a long shutdown make it difficult to forecast if and when many companies will fully recover.

Small-business owners — many of them baby boomers and in the retirement-age range — are in a difficult position trying to decide whether to risk staying in business or sell and cut their losses.

We are in the early stages of a depression that’s going to go on quite a while. Many small-business owners are in their 60s and 70s, and they’re tired and beat up. Some recovered from the financial collapse of 2008, but now they’re getting hammered again.

Customers and employees are scared or nervous. The supply chain is a big problem, and there is this crazy situation where prices are going up because of the shortages, but meanwhile we have a depression because there are not enough transactions.

Here are three suggestions to small-business owners as they try to sort out their future amidst so much uncertainty.

• Quit. A lot of people are going to do that. And if that’s the decision, they should quit fast. Don’t drag this out. One of the things that happened in the recession of 2008 was people refused to face reality, and it cost them everything — their savings and retirement. If you are 60 to 70 years old right now and don’t know if you can gut this out another 10 or 15 years, then cut your losses. You will have a little nest egg now as opposed to spending all of it trying to bail the business out.

• Reinvent. If you’re not going to quit, then you have to change. Just slugging it out and hoping it’s going to get better or that it will get back to normal — that kind of thinking is ridiculous. We have huge structural problems as a country. So if you’re going to reinvent, you have to come back to the fundamentals of business. The owner has to back up and say, “What are the fundamental concerns of customers we are actually trying to address here?” And focus energy on those prime areas that are going to move people to pay a good margin for your product. Don’t ask why it’s not easier; ask how you can get better.

• Be flexible. Given the fluid state of our world, changing some of your business model and processes may have to become a habit. The next thing business owners have to do is realize what they changed today may need to change tomorrow. The innovation has to happen every day. That has a lot to do with listening to customers and anticipating what they would respond to. Engaging with customers and engaging in the innovation process for owners is absolutely critical. If an owner is not willing to try to get that figured out with and for their customers, they’re going to fail.

The business has to be infused with a fresh energy and a fresh passion. If you’re not going to quit during these extremely difficult times, that means you have to get back in the game. And you have to play hard because this is going to be tough.

Michael Sipe, author of “The AVADA Principle,” is founder of 10x Catalyst Groups (www.10xgroups.com), which helps entrepreneurs grow profitable and thriving businesses organized on a foundation of Biblical principles. Sipe has also enjoyed a successful 30-plus year career in mergers, acquisitions, and business development as the founder of CrossPointe Capital, a middle-market investment-banking firm.

Business Community Reflects Best of CNY’s Spirit During COVID-19

Business Mentors, Subscriber Only

“Do your little bit of good where you are; it’s those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world.” — Desmond Tutu This is the essence of how our community has come together during the COVID-19 crisis. We were recently proud to celebrate the best of our community by partnering with NewsChannel 9 WSYR

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“Do your little bit of good where you are; it’s those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world.” — Desmond Tutu

This is the essence of how our community has come together during the COVID-19 crisis. We were recently proud to celebrate the best of our community by partnering with NewsChannel 9 WSYR for the hour-long program, “Central New York Resilient.” If you missed it, we invite you to watch it here: https://www.localsyr.com/news/local-news/central-new-york-resilient/

Together, we shared the stories of businesses pivoting to provide critical resources to the community, from hand sanitizer to test kits; firms donating masks for frontline workers; small businesses adopting new operational models to serve customers and clients; and financial institutions and nonprofits creating grant programs to bridge funding gaps. At a time when our country is still reeling from the health and economic impacts of this virus, business and community leaders across Central New York have responded with compassion and action, showing that, together, we can drive a strong recovery. Thank you to all those who participated in this program and helped make it a success.

Even now, several months into this crisis, the business community continues to find ways to meet the ongoing needs of its neighbors. [In two successive weeks], CenterState CEO provided more than 2,000 free personal protective equipment toolkits to small businesses across five Central New York locations, thanks to a generous grant from Excellus BlueCross BlueShield. The toolkits included hand sanitizer, protective masks, best practice tips and guideline posters from local partners: Lock 1 Distilling Company, Beak & Skiff/1911 Established, Dreissig Apparel Inc., Oswego Industries and Dupli Envelope & Graphics. We thank them for their support.

As we work to rebuild and drive a more robust, inclusive, and resilient economy following this pandemic, there is both opportunity and obligation for the business community to respond with similar compassion, action, and intention as it examines its corporate responsibilities for social and economic justice. We must not lose sight of the racial and socio-economic disparities that persist within our community, and prevent the realization of CenterState CEO’s vision for a region where all people prosper. In this moment, the business community must lead and model the change that we so desperately need and want to see, with greater equity and opportunity for everyone who calls Central New York home. I invite you to watch the recording of our webinar from [July 16], called “Driving Equity and Inclusion,” for an excellent dialogue on how leaders in our community are [creating] and inspiring change through their work. It’s available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XChjJy0jKKc&t=295s.

While there is no way of knowing how long this crisis will last, what I do know is that our resilience will continue to drive our ability to overcome whatever challenges we face. It is that spirit that makes me proud to be a part of this community, and incredibly hopeful for our future.

Robert M. (Rob) Simpson is president and CEO of CenterState CEO, the primary economic-development organization for Central New York. This viewpoint is drawn and edited from the “CEO Focus” email newsletter that the organization sent to members on July 16.

Time for the U.S. to divest from China including private pensions

Opinion, Subscriber Only

President Trump, the national security advisor, director of the National Economic Council, and the Department of Labor secretary have all made it clear that investments in non-transparent, Chinese state-owned company securities are too risky and dangerous for federal-employee retirement investing. The president’s statement [on July 14] effectively ending the Obama-Biden China exemption to investment transparency

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The president’s statement [on July 14] effectively ending the Obama-Biden China exemption to investment transparency rules on U.S. exchanges is an important step to protecting American investors from Chinese vapor companies. Now, the administration and state governments need to take a series of simple but important steps to protect retirement investors and pensions from foreign investments that do not conform to basic auditing standards.

First, the Labor Department should immediately begin by imposing these transparency rules on private pensions and investments. Second, the Labor Department should also divest all funds in non-transparent investments under the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. Third, federal-employee defined-benefit plans should be directed to divest from non-transparent assets as well. Fourth, state governors and financial officers should take immediate action to divest state-employee pension funds from these same unsuitable assets.

If individual investors wish to put their money into Chinese state-owned companies on the Shanghai Composite Index, that is a choice with all the risks that choice entails. However, retirement funds are held to a higher standard under the law and given the administration’s recognition that Chinese assets do not conform to that standard, it would be irresponsible for state officials to not follow suit to protect their employees’ future financial security, too.

Let me be clear, this is not only a fiduciarily sound approach but a morally necessary one as well [because] investing in Chinese companies that engage in child and slave labor effectively makes our nation’s pensioners involuntary slave owners. This is repugnant and it must end.

Rick Manning is president of Americans for Limited Government (ALG). The organization says it is a “non-partisan, nationwide network committed to advancing free-market reforms, private property rights, and core American liberties.” This op-ed is drawn from a news release the ALG issued on July 15.

It’s Time to Learn What Our System is About from the Inside

Opinion, Subscriber Only

I have spent a long time in politics, and over those years one thing has remained constant: There are a lot more Americans who criticize government than there are who serve and do something about it. I’ll admit, there have been times when I have felt a bit resentful. It’s hard to enter the fray,

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I have spent a long time in politics, and over those years one thing has remained constant: There are a lot more Americans who criticize government than there are who serve and do something about it.

I’ll admit, there have been times when I have felt a bit resentful. It’s hard to enter the fray, be expected to listen patiently to criticism from all comers, and then look around to find that many of them are nowhere to be found when it comes to the hard work of improving our communities and our system.

But far more than annoyance, what I have felt is amazement at the immense but often un-grasped opportunity our system offers. This is especially acute these days, as millions of Americans take to the streets and to social media with passionate intensity, driven by deeply held beliefs or newfound conviction and a sense that it’s time to weigh in. I agree, but then, I think it’s always time to weigh in. That is what our system asks of us as citizens. And in particular, I would argue that it asks us to do it from the inside, not just from the outside.

We desperately need citizens to enter the public arena — people who are not afraid to plunge in and try to improve our democratic institutions. To be sure, critics and ordinary engaged citizens have an important role to play in shaping the public discourse. But if at some point in their lives they and others do not also see a duty to serve, our nation is in trouble.

I know the arguments you can find against it. You have to compromise your values. It’s thankless. The system turns you into a cog. You make yourself a target of scrutiny. You can’t actually accomplish anything.

To all of this, I say: So? There is no question that our governing institutions need improving. But it’s not going to happen unless people with the power to change them roll up their sleeves and set about doing so. And those people are the ones inside those institutions, who have learned how they work and who understand that actual change happens by dint of legislation, administration, and the nitty-gritty details of reform.

There are plenty of other things you can do, too: vote, spend time learning the issues you care about, make informed judgments about your elected representatives, get involved in organizations that advocate for the causes you value. But as writer Andy Smarick put it recently in “The Bulwark,” “[G]overning is formative. Knocking on doors as a candidate is not just about winning votes. Sitting through a long bill hearing is not just about following the legislative process. Taking part in public debates is not just about self-expression. Making a tough governing decision is not just about resolving a policy matter. Through these activities, the public servant listens to fellow citizens, learns of competing priorities, and witnesses principles in conflict.”

In our democracy, these and other skills are vital — not just for public officials, but for any citizen who wants to be involved in the community. Listening to our peers, understanding their hopes, appreciating the differences among them, grasping why accommodation and compromise are crucial to resolving those differences, and learning how to accomplish them are part and parcel of making a representative democracy work. People who do this feel in their bones how hard it is to govern in a large, diverse republic — and why we depend on large numbers of ordinary people to step forward, find their niche, and participate on town boards, in state legislatures, and in Congress.

So, as I look about at the remarkable levels of public engagement in this intense political year, I find myself hoping that more comes out of it than simple public pressure. I hope that people who had never considered it before decide it’s time to step forward, serve in public office, and help their fellow citizens make this a better country.

Lee Hamilton, 89, is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years (1965-1999), representing a district in south central Indiana.

Solvay Bank

People on the Move, Subscriber Only

AMBER CAVALLARO has been promoted to retail banking manager at Solvay Bank. She was previously the branch manager of its Baldwinsville office. Cavallaro joined Solvay Bank in 2016. VANESSA MACDOUGALL has joined Solvay Bank as the branch manager of its DeWitt office. She has more than 13 years of experience in the banking industry.

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CHRISTINE YOUNG

People on the Move, Subscriber Only

CHRISTINE YOUNG has joined Mohawk Valley Health System (MVHS) as director of talent acquisition. In this role, she will lead a team of recruiters responsible for sourcing, evaluating, and hiring candidates in close partnership with hiring managers. Prior to joining MVHS, Young was team leader of employment at Bassett Medical Center in Cooperstown. She was

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DR. HANA SMITH

People on the Move, Subscriber Only

DR. HANA SMITH, a cardiologist, has joined St. Joseph’s Health in its Cardiovascular Institute. Prior to joining St. Joseph’s Health, she served as a staff cardiologist at the Guthrie Cortland Medical Center in Cortland. Smith earned her medical degree from Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic, and completed her medical training with several fellowships in

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