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VIEWPOINT: An Economic Outlook for 2021
This past year was an interesting one, to say the least. Although some may prefer to use other adjectives to describe 2020. COVID-19 provided a vast disruption of economic activity, with U.S. GDP declining 31.7 percent in the second quarter. However, the U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resiliency and rebounded 32.7 percent in the third quarter. While the […]
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This past year was an interesting one, to say the least. Although some may prefer to use other adjectives to describe 2020. COVID-19 provided a vast disruption of economic activity, with U.S. GDP declining 31.7 percent in the second quarter. However, the U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resiliency and rebounded 32.7 percent in the third quarter. While the economy continued to grow in the fourth quarter, activity did slow, particularly in the labor markets. It is estimated that the full year 2020 U.S. GDP will decline around 3-5 percent. Now that we have flipped the calendar to 2021, great uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 remains. Nonetheless, our 2021 economic outlook is optimistic.
There is no doubt that the COVID-19 economic disruption has endured longer than most anticipated. The hope of a short-duration event prompted by the quick “flattening of the curve” in the spring of 2020 soon dissipated as COVID spiked in the summer and again during the holiday season. Portions of the country remain in lockdown with severe economic consequences. However, while the vaccine-distribution process has been disappointingly slow, it is widely expected to accelerate. And as additional vaccines will soon be approved (hopefully), there is even greater potential to dramatically increase the supply of vaccines.
In particular, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has two attractive characteristics; it is a one-time injection and does not require deep-freeze storage. This creates potential for much broader distribution through doctor’s offices and local pharmacies, which provides hope that a return to economic normalcy is coming, although the timing is still uncertain. COVID will negatively impact the economy at least through the first quarter, probably into the second. However, the economy is poised for a very strong second half of the year.
Despite the COVID uncertainty, the economy held its own in the fourth quarter and significant areas of economic momentum have carried over from 2020 that should sustain growth until the vaccines are widely administered. Capital-goods investment and consumer spending remain strong. The purchasing managers’ indices for both the manufacturing and service sectors continue to expand. The auto and housing markets are booming. And global equity markets are trading at or near record high levels.
It has been difficult to watch the dysfunction of Washington, D.C. The federal government’s response to COVID back in March deserves accolades. While not perfect, it was swift, massive, and mostly effective. Large companies have managed rather well throughout the crisis and corporate earnings have remained strong. Unfortunately, many of the programs targeted at individuals and small businesses “expired” in the fourth quarter of 2020 and election-driven political wrangling prevented further response. The disappointing failure to replenish these programs was the main reason for the slower rate of growth in the fourth quarter.
However, with the election behind us, further stimulus will be forthcoming. A new $900 billion program was passed. This “skinny” program (I guess $900 billion qualifies as “skinny”) is targeted at the right places like the long-term unemployed and small business. President Biden called the
$900 billion program a “down payment” and has proposed an additional $1.9 trillion program.
Further fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure is highly likely. Washington, D.C. will haggle over the ultimate size and scope, but there is no doubt that massive additional spending is on its way. This additional fiscal support will bridge the economy through what is hopefully the last stand of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Federal Reserve will supplement the fiscal stimulus with continued easy monetary policy. Fed Chairman Jay Powell has stated the Fed will provide monetary support “for as long as it takes.” Inflation remains muted with major inflation indicators (PCE, CPI) hovering around 1.5 percent, far below the Fed’s 2 percent target. This green-lights easy monetary policy. In short, the interest rates are likely to remain very low and the economy will stay awash in liquidity. Again, this will aid the economy as we await widespread vaccination.
The personal savings rates have grown at record levels and it is estimated that there is over $1 trillion in savings. That is a huge stockpile of money just waiting to be unleashed into the economy. There is much discussion over the long-term impacts of COVID. It remains to be seen if business travel returns to pre-COVID levels, but we doubt individuals have lost their desire to travel and vacation. When it is safe to go out, we believe people will, with $1 trillion burning a hole in their pockets. This has the potential for explosive economic activity in the second half of the year.
Interestingly, the financial markets have barely skipped a beat, with the S&P 500 [up more than 2.6 percent year-to-date, through Jan. 25 — following a nearly 16.3 percent gain in 2020.] There seems to be an emotional tug of war in the markets, focused on three major risk factors: COVID, politics, and stimulus. As ugly as the virus and politics are, they are counter-balanced by hopes of greater vaccine dissemination and massive stimulus.
Our economic outlook remains positive while acknowledging that the timing of economic recovery is dependent on achieving some degree of control of the coronavirus. It is our sincere hope that the accelerated vaccination programs will diminish the virus risk early in 2021 and that economic activity can begin the normalization process.
We do not expect an “all clear” siren that ends the COVID-19 crisis, but rather a slow and steady increase in economic confidence as the vaccination programs and herd immunity take hold. In the interim period, we believe there are still areas of strength in the economy that can sustain growth. Fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to provide massive liquidity to the overall economy. Low interest rates and huge personal savings will fuel corporate and consumer spending. Our 2021 economic optimism will require patience. Happy New Year!
Kenneth J. Entenmann is senior VP and chief investment officer at NBT Wealth Management. Entenmann has more than 33 years of investment experience. In his current role, he oversees more than $6 billion in assets under management and administration in trust, custody, retirement, institutional, and individual accounts. Entenmann regularly shares his perspectives on the economy on his Market Insights blog at www.nbtbank.com/marketinsights.

Harper named chairman of National Credit Union Administration
Todd Harper has been named chairman of the board of directors of the Alexandria, Virginia–based National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Harper was first nominated to serve on the NCUA board in February 2019, confirmed by the U.S. Senate in March 2019 and sworn in as a board member in April 2019. Prior to joining the board, Harper
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Todd Harper has been named chairman of the board of directors of the Alexandria, Virginia–based National Credit Union Administration (NCUA).
Harper was first nominated to serve on the NCUA board in February 2019, confirmed by the U.S. Senate in March 2019 and sworn in as a board member in April 2019.
Prior to joining the board, Harper served as director of the NCUA’s Office of Public and Congressional Affairs. He was the first member of the NCUA staff to become an NCUA board member.
“The credit union system now sits at the intersection of several crossroads, and the agency faces many decisions ahead related to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and the need to advance economic equality and justice,” Harper said in a Jan. 25 NCUA news release. “As NCUA board chairman, I will continue to focus on four policy priorities: capital and liquidity, consumer financial protection, cybersecurity, and diversity, equity and economic inclusion. Each of these priorities are vital in responding to current economic and marketplace realities.”
Harper replaces Rodney Hood, who was nominated to the NCUA board by President Donald Trump in January 2019. The U.S. Senate confirmed him in March 2019 and he took the oath of office in April 2019, when he was designated chairman by Trump. Hood will remain a member of the board, along with Kyle Hauptman, who was sworn in on Dec. 14, 2020.
“On behalf of the New York credit-union movement, I congratulate Todd M. Harper on his appointment as NCUA board chairman,” William Mellin, president and CEO of the New York Credit Union Association (NYCUA), said in a statement. “We look forward to working with the chairman in his new role, in addition to board members Rodney Hood and Kyle Hauptmann, as we continue to identify and advance the best interests of New York credit unions and their members. Board member Hood should be commended for his willingness to meet with and hear directly from the New York credit union community during his time as chairman. I have every reason to believe we will continue our strong working relationship with NCUA as Chairman Harper takes the helm of the agency.”

KeyBank names Sampson director of Key4Women
KeyBank, a unit of KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), recently announced it has ppointed Rachael Sampson as senior VP and director of its Key4Women program. Sampson will lead a nationwide network to promote and support women business owners and clients in seeking growth. She has been with KeyBank for 15 years and previously served as relationship manager of commercial banking
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KeyBank, a unit of KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), recently announced it has ppointed Rachael Sampson as senior VP and director of its Key4Women program.
Sampson will lead a nationwide network to promote and support women business owners and clients in seeking growth. She has been with KeyBank for 15 years and previously served as relationship manager of commercial banking for KeyBank’s Cincinnati market.
“Rachael understands the importance of what it means to be a relationship-driven bank and how we can work with our clients to empower them,” Tony Amador, leader of KeyBank’s consumer health care and alternative channel, said in a release. “She’s going to bring that vision and skill set to Key4Women as we grow this network and find new ways to help women-owned businesses during these challenging times.”
The bank contends that Sampson’s experience has prepared her for the challenges women business owners are facing with the COVID-19 pandemic. Key4Women’s Confidence Survey finds the coronavirus crisis “has created an incredible amount of strain for women business owners.” In two years, the survey has found a 22 percent drop among respondents who say they are confident in their personal finances and in the future, along with a 23 percent drop among those owners regarding the confidence in the financial health of their business. One in three women now have low optimism that they will achieve their business goals in the next year, per the release.
“Key4Women is an avenue of growth and advice for so many women business owners and leaders. As a relationship-based bank, we want to be a partner in helping our clients use every tool possible, while knowing exactly what best fits their business and goals,” said Sampson, who has nearly 20 years of banking experience, ranging from commercial banking to loan-operations management, compliance, and credit.
KeyBank started Key4Women in 2005. The free program offers women business owners and leaders “committed advisors to help guide them on their financial journeys, networking events and educational opportunities, research and resources, and access to capital,” the bank said.
“When I joined KeyBank 15 years ago, Key4Women was less than a year old. While the complimentary program has grown exponentially, helping to generate more than $12 billion in loans granted to women-owned business since then, our goal remains consistent — to advocate, connect and empower women-owned businesses and leaders so they can thrive. I know we can keep that momentum going, no matter what we face,” said Sampson.
She holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration from Thomas More University and is working toward an MBA degree from the University of Cincinnati.
Cleveland, Ohio–based KeyCorp’s roots trace back 190 years to Albany, New York. KeyBank is the second-largest bank in the 16-county Central New York region, ranked by deposits, according to the latest FDIC statistics.
VIEWPOINT: Rundown of Updated PPP Forgiveness Application Forms
Covers both first and second-draw loans The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) recently updated all versions of the PPP Loan Forgiveness Applications to reflect changes in the recent legislation. Borrowers who have yet to apply for forgiveness on their first-draw PPP loan should use these updated forms and consult with their lender. Some lenders are utilizing
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Covers both first and second-draw loans
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) recently updated all versions of the PPP Loan Forgiveness Applications to reflect changes in the recent legislation. Borrowers who have yet to apply for forgiveness on their first-draw PPP loan should use these updated forms and consult with their lender. Some lenders are utilizing equivalent versions of the forms. Also, some lenders have delayed accepting the forgiveness applications while they address the second round of PPP funding.
Simplified Forgiveness Application (Form 3508EZ)
The updated EZ PPP Loan Forgiveness Application Form 3508EZ and corresponding instructions are available at https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/PPP–Loan-Forgiveness-Application-Instructions–Form3508EZ-1192021.pdf. Borrowers that received a loan less than $2 million (combined with affiliates) may use this form as long as they satisfy one of the two following qualifications: 1) there were no reductions in salaries by more than 25 percent during the covered period and no reductions in number of employee headcounts (with some exceptions); or, 2) the borrower did not reduce salaries by more than 25 percent during the covered period and the borrower was unable to operate at the same level of business activity due to government shutdown orders.
Loans under $150,000
The updated simplified PPP Loan Forgiveness Application Form 3508S and corresponding instructions is available at https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/PPP–Loan-Forgiveness-Application-Instructions–Form-3508S-1192021.pdf. The recent legislation increased the threshold amount for this simplified application to $150,000. If a borrower has a PPP loan equal to or less than this amount, the borrower may simply submit this one-page form to its lender; supporting documentation is not required to be submitted, but only maintained.
Loans above $150,000
The updated full version of the PPP Loan Forgiveness Application Form 3508 and corresponding instructions is available at https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/PPP–Loan-Forgiveness-Application-and-Instructions–Form-3508-1192021.pdf. As a recap, borrowers who received a loan of $2 million or more (combined with affiliates) must use this form, as well as borrowers who reduced salaries and/or employee headcounts and do not qualify for a safe harbor noted above under the 3508EZ application.
Elizabeth L. Lehmann is an associate attorney in the Syracuse office of Bond, Schoeneck & King PLLC. Contact her at elehmann@bsk.com. Jeffrey B. Scheer is a member (partner) in the law firm. Contact him at jscheer@bsk.com
OPINION: Syracuse–area Congressman comments on Biden’s early executive actions
[U.S. Representative John Katko (R–Camillus) released the following statement Jan. 22 after the new Biden Administration announced a series of executive actions in its first days in office] On the campaign trail and in the weeks leading up to the Inauguration, President Joe Biden pledged to unify our country and advance effective policies built on consensus.
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[U.S. Representative John Katko (R–Camillus) released the following statement Jan. 22 after the new Biden Administration announced a series of executive actions in its first days in office]
On the campaign trail and in the weeks leading up to the Inauguration, President Joe Biden pledged to unify our country and advance effective policies built on consensus. With our nation still responding to and recovering from the ongoing pandemic, I wholeheartedly agreed with this approach, and applauded his commitment to working in a bipartisan manner to move our nation forward.
But, President Biden’s actions have not reflected his unifying tone. In his first days in office, President Biden has issued numerous Executive Orders that codify far-left priorities which run counter to Central New York’s interests. This included a knee-jerk rollback of commonsense national security and immigration measures to secure our borders and policies that pave the way for a national $15 minimum wage, a move that would cripple our economy and the many local small businesses already struggling to survive during the pandemic.
I strongly encourage President Biden to reject demands from the far-left, refocus his agenda, and make good on his promise to unify.
Congressman John Katko, 58, represents the 24th Congressional District of New York, which includes all of Onondaga, Cayuga, and Wayne counties and a portion of Oswego County.
OPINION: The New President’s Toughest Job: A Polarized America
If the months since the November elections have shown us anything, it’s that the U.S. is more deeply divided than we have experienced in a very long time. It’s reached the point where, rather than take pleasure in the success of a politician elected to the presidency, you have to keep your fingers crossed on his behalf.
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If the months since the November elections have shown us anything, it’s that the U.S. is more deeply divided than we have experienced in a very long time. It’s reached the point where, rather than take pleasure in the success of a politician elected to the presidency, you have to keep your fingers crossed on his behalf.
There are, of course, the partisan differences on the complex challenges that beset this country. Political groups with opinions on these and other issues have become more sophisticated and more aggressive in trying to shape the public dialogue than ever before. And each side tends to be suspicious of the other, viewing their adversaries as attacking the national security interests of the country.
Now in the mix, though, we also have the divisions stoked by former President Trump, whose desperation to hold onto power led him and his followers to traffic in conspiracy theories and to reject the norms, principles, and institutions we’ve relied on for centuries to build this nation. This is exacerbated by our splintered media and social-media universe, our rural/urban/suburban divide, and our regional and racial differences. You get the impression that many Republicans and Democrats — Americans all — live in different worlds today.
These are not entirely new issues, but they have become sharply more painful. The greater the polarization, the tougher it is to build consensus and solve our problems, even though ordinary Americans tend to prefer cooperation and bipartisan solutions — though even that has been fraying in recent years.
Every indication is that President Biden identifies himself as a moderate and plans to govern from the center or a bit to its left. His cabinet choices so far have been from the deep pool of centrist Democrats, people with expertise and experience. He believes that he can advance his goals through bipartisanship and cooperation, and Democrats’ tenuous hold on both the House and the Senate may help him on this front, giving strength to moderates in both parties who are willing to sit down together in the interests of governing the country effectively.
With Congress’s divisions mirroring the country’s, maybe there’s room for hope. If a core of legislators of both parties are willing to work with the Biden administration, find common ground, and pass legislation that makes the country better, then perhaps Washington, D.C. can actually set an example that helps a reeling nation heal.
Lee Hamilton, 89, is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years (1965-1999), representing a district in south central Indiana.
CEO FOCUS: Prioritizing Legislative Policies to Drive Progress
Our nation [recently] watched as new leadership came to power at the federal level, marking the first time both the President and Senate Majority Leader share a connection to Central New York. Their knowledge and ties to this community, and their ability to collaborate with state and local leaders, position our region to seize opportunities and address
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Our nation [recently] watched as new leadership came to power at the federal level, marking the first time both the President and Senate Majority Leader share a connection to Central New York. Their knowledge and ties to this community, and their ability to collaborate with state and local leaders, position our region to seize opportunities and address the significant challenges before us.
In the context of this new environment, CenterState CEO’s 2021 Legislative Agenda focuses on a series of state and federal legislative and policy priorities aimed at advancing our region. It is developed with input from our Government Relations Committee and issues identified by our members, taking into account key initiatives under consideration in Albany and Washington, D.C. that will have direct impacts on Central New York. This year’s top five priorities include:
Angel Investment Tax Credit: CenterState CEO supports the establishment of a NYS Angel Investment Tax Credit for investments of up to $500,000 for early-stage investments in companies with high growth potential.
COVID-19 Relief: [We] support assistance for impacted state and local governments, liability protection, and continuation of effective regulatory relief.
Economic Development: CenterState CEO supports the Endless Frontiers Act, which creates opportunities to develop new global tech centers of excellence by targeting mid-sized metropolitan regions, like Central New York, for investment in research, creation of new companies, manufacturing, and high-tech jobs.
Transportation + Infrastructure: [We] supports advancing the redevelopment of I-81, and advocates for a Community Grid Plus solution and community-focused workforce initiatives as part of the project. This project represents a $2 billion investment that will provide economic stimulus for the region. A Record of Decision is expected in 2021, and the initial phase of construction could begin in 2022.
NYS Income Tax: CenterState CEO rejects proposals to raise New York State income taxes, including those that introduce a new “millionaires’ tax” or a potential “wealth tax.” New York is already a high-tax state and further tax increases create competitiveness issues for talent attraction and business operations.
As we welcome new leadership, we are hopeful that Central New York will finally receive the kind of federal support needed to drive progress for our region through these initiatives. To learn more about our policy priorities, contact Kevin Schwab, VP of public policy and government relations, at (315) 470-1944 or email: kschwab@centerstateceo.com.
Robert M. Simpson is president and CEO of CenterState CEO, the primary economic-development organization for Central New York. This article is drawn and edited from the “CEO Focus” email newsletter that the organization sent to members on Jan. 21.

The Ithaca office of Insero & Co. CPAs recently promoted BEN OWENS to principal with the firm. He joined Insero & Co. (formerly CDLM, LLP) in 2010. Owens is a graduate of SUNY Cortland with a degree in finance and received his MBA from Ithaca College. He went on to achieve his CPA designation in
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The Ithaca office of Insero & Co. CPAs recently promoted BEN OWENS to principal with the firm. He joined Insero & Co. (formerly CDLM, LLP) in 2010. Owens is a graduate of SUNY Cortland with a degree in finance and received his MBA from Ithaca College. He went on to achieve his CPA designation in 2018. As principal in the company, Owens will continue to work in a supervisory role in the audit department in the Ithaca office, along with joining of the executive management team.

Bowers & Company CPAs, PLLC has promoted MARK T. GASTIN to tax partner in the firm. He has been with Bowers for more than 17 years and works in its Syracuse office. Gastin graduated from SUNY Oswego with a bachelor’s degree in accounting and a minor in economics and is a CPA. He has more
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Bowers & Company CPAs, PLLC has promoted MARK T. GASTIN to tax partner in the firm. He has been with Bowers for more than 17 years and works in its Syracuse office. Gastin graduated from SUNY Oswego with a bachelor’s degree in accounting and a minor in economics and is a CPA. He has more than 19 years of experience in public accounting. Joining the firm in 2003, Gastin has specific experience with taxation issues relating to the manufacturing, financial institutions, and transportation industries. In addition, he has worked on multiple business sale and acquisition transactions ranging in value from $1 million up to $200 million.

Syracuse University has appointed KATHLEEN CORRADO as director of the Forensic and National Security Science Institute (FNSSI) in the College of Arts and Sciences (A&S). Corrado comes to SU from the Onondaga County Center for Forensic Sciences (CFS), where she served as director of laboratories. For more than 20 years, she managed a full-service laboratory
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Syracuse University has appointed KATHLEEN CORRADO as director of the Forensic and National Security Science Institute (FNSSI) in the College of Arts and Sciences (A&S). Corrado comes to SU from the Onondaga County Center for Forensic Sciences (CFS), where she served as director of laboratories. For more than 20 years, she managed a full-service laboratory that provided a range of forensic services beyond DNA analysis, including firearms, fingerprint analysis, drug chemistry, and digital evidence, according to an SU news release. She started at the newly opened CFS in 1999 as DNA technical leader. Before that, Corrado, a New Jersey native, worked at the Texas Department of Public Safety from 1996-99, specializing in crime-scene investigation, biological fluid identification, and various forms of DNA analysis. Corrado began her career studying molecular genetics, researching gene regulation and protein function in muscular dystrophy. She received a bachelor’s degree in biology from the University of Connecticut in 1986, a Ph.D. in biology from the University of Michigan in 1992 and completed two post-doctoral research fellowships — at the University of Michigan Medical School’s Department of Human Genetics and University of Texas at Austin, respectively.
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