Manufacturers in New York state expect conditions in the sector to worsen in the months ahead. It’s a level of pessimism that has “only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its April 15 report on the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey. […]
Manufacturers in New York state expect conditions in the sector to worsen in the months ahead.
It’s a level of pessimism that has “only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its April 15 report on the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
The April survey’s general business conditions index, a benchmark for current industry conditions, improved 12 points but remained below zero at -8.1, which indicates continued contraction in the sector.
In the past few months, the general business conditions index deteriorated 26 points to -20 in March after gaining 18 points to 5.7 in February. The index is the monthly gauge of New York’s manufacturing sector.
Based on firms responding to the survey, the April reading indicates manufacturing business activity “declined modestly” in New York state, the New York Fed said in its report.
A negative index number shows a decline in the manufacturing sector, while a positive index reading indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity.
The survey found the indexes for new orders and shipments persisted below zero as new orders fell modestly and shipments edged lower.
At the same time, manufacturing firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than 20-year history of the survey, the New York Fed said.
Survey details
The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to “ongoing declines” in both orders and shipments, the New York Fed said.
Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply-availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.
The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked. Both price indexes climbed for a fourth straight month to their highest levels in more than two years — the prices-paid index rose 6 points to 50.8, and the prices-received index gained 6 points to 28.7.
The index for future general business conditions fell 20 points to -7.4; the index has declined a cumulative 44 points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead.
Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months, the New York Fed said.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York state. On average, about 100 executives return responses.
