Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 90.7 in the second quarter of 2018, up 6.8 points from the last reading of 83.9 in the first quarter of 2018. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena Research Institute (SRI) released July 11. Upstate’s overall sentiment […]
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Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 90.7 in the second quarter of 2018, up 6.8 points from the last reading of 83.9 in the first quarter of 2018.
That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena Research Institute (SRI) released July 11.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 90.7 was 1.5 points above the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 89.2, which rose 2.1 points from the first quarter.
The statewide figure was 9 points lower than the second-quarter figure of 98.2 for the entire nation, which was down 3.2 points from the first-quarter reading, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
Consumer sentiment across New York state is well above the optimism/pessimism breakeven point for the 15th consecutive quarter, Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said in the survey report.
“Upstate the overall index jumped nearly 7 points driven by greater confidence in the future of business and economic conditions. Despite, or perhaps because of a volatile stock market, fears of tariffs and a wholesale trade war, consumer sentiment rose dramatically among Republicans — up 14 points — while Democrats, although up a point, trail Republicans by 18 points,” said Lonnstrom.
In the second quarter of 2018, buying plans were up 0.7 percentage points since the first-quarter measurement to 14.3 percent for cars and trucks; up 2.1 to 40.3 percent for consumer electronics; up 0.3 percent to 27.7 percent for furniture; and up 0.3 percent to 7.4 percent for homes.
Buying plans fell 0.8 percent to 21.6 percent for major home improvements, according to the SRI data.
“Buying plans for major consumer items — cars, homes, furniture and electronics were all up this quarter and remain high signaling continued consumer driven activity throughout the economy,” Lonnstrom said.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 48 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 34 percent in the first quarter and 36 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
In addition, 40 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, up from 29 percent in the first quarter and 34 percent in the fourth quarter.
“New Yorkers notice and feel the price at the pump immediately. Concern over gasoline prices hit 40 percent for the first time since June of 2015 when prices last flirted with three dollars a gallon,” Lonnstrom said.
When asked about food prices, 51 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 55 percent in the first quarter and from 53 percent in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, 55 percent of statewide respondents said the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, equal to the responding percentage in the first quarter and down from 58 percent in the fourth quarter.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between June 12 and June 27 by telephone calls conducted in English to 807 New York residents. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, according to SRI.