Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 64.0 in the fourth quarter of 2021, up 0.6 points from the last reading of 63.4 in the year’s third quarter. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 12. The 63.4 reading in […]
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Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 64.0 in the fourth quarter of 2021, up 0.6 points from the last reading of 63.4 in the year’s third quarter.
That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 12.
The 63.4 reading in the third quarter represented Upstate’s lowest overall index since 2011.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 64.0 in the fourth quarter was 9.1 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 73.1, which rose 1.2 points from the third quarter.
The statewide figure was 5.7 points higher than the fourth-quarter figure of 67.4 for the entire nation, which was down 5.4 points from the third-quarter figure, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
The overall and future indexes for New York each increased in the latest quarter and the future index is above the breakeven point at which optimism and pessimism balance. The current index decreased and is below breakeven. The national indexes all fell. New Yorkers are more optimistic about overall and future economic conditions than the nation as a whole.
After a precipitous fall in the 3rd quarter, consumer sentiment rose by a point as New Yorkers balance an ongoing decline in their current economic situation with an uptick in their long-range outlook, Don Levy, SRI director, said.
“Most noteworthy are concerns over the bite that gas and food are taking out of the budget as inflation has generated concerns over gasoline prices that we haven’t seen since March 2013 and food price worries not matched since July 2011,” Levy said. “These sticker shocks, felt especially hard by Upstaters, women and older residents, have driven New Yorkers’ current outlook back to just about the low we saw at the pandemic’s start. Only faith in a better tomorrow, which rose to equal where we stood a year ago, resulted in the one-point overall index increase,” Levy explained.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, buying plans rose 0.3 percentage points from the third quarter measure to 10.4 percent for homes and inched up 0.8 points to 25 percent for major home improvements. Buying plans fell 2.2 points to 16.9 percent for cars and trucks; slipped 2 points to 43.5 percent for consumer electronics; and dropped 2.1 points to 28.0 percent for furniture.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 70 percent of Upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 58 percent in the third quarter of 2021 and 57 percent in the second quarter.
In addition, 61 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, up from 54 percent in both the third and second quarters of last year.
When asked about food prices, 75 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious effect on their finances, up from 65 percent in the third quarter and from 64 percent in the second quarter.
At the same time, 72 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, up from 66 percent in the third quarter and 63 percent in the second quarter.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between Nov. 8 and Nov. 16 by random telephone calls to 395 New York adults via landline and cell phone. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, according to SRI.
