Upstate New York consumers and those across the state were less confident in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, according to a new report. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 85.2 in this year’s second quarter, down 3.8 points from 89 in the first quarter. That’s […]
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Upstate New York consumers and those across the state were less confident in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, according to a new report.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 85.2 in this year’s second quarter, down 3.8 points from 89 in the first quarter. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released July 2.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 85.2 was 1.9 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 87.1, which fell 6.2 points from the first quarter.
The statewide figure was 11.1 points lower than the second-quarter figure of 98.2 for the entire nation, which was down 0.2 points from the first-quarter measurement, as measure by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
After three consecutive quarters of robust consumer sentiment, the New York index “nose-dived,” falling over six points in the second quarter, Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said in the SRI report.
“Despite remaining well above the breakeven point at which optimism and pessimism are balanced, every group — men, women, upstate, downstate, young and old — recorded declining sentiment driven more so by their current outlook than by their future. Perhaps driven by news of tariffs, trade wars, stock market volatility or the start of the 2020 campaign, a shrinking plurality of New Yorkers now say that they are better off financially today than they were a year ago,” said Lonnstrom.
In the second quarter of 2019, buying plans were up 4.6 percentage points since the first-quarter measurement to 27.8 percent for major home improvements. However, buying plans were down 2.6 percentage points to 21.1 percent for cars and trucks; declined 2.9 points to 46.5 percent for consumer electronics; fell 3.7 points to 30.2 percent for furniture; and declined 1.9 points to 8.6 percent for homes.
“Buying plans, while still strong, declined this quarter for cars, electronics, furniture, and homes. Plans for home improvements rose this spring to nearly 28 percent setting an all-time high in our survey. Overall, a growing percentage of New Yorkers amidst falling current sentiment expressed indecision towards making major purchases,” said Lonnstrom.
Food prices
When asked about food prices, 57 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 62 percent in the first quarter and from 60 percent in the final quarter of last year.
At the same time, 64 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, up from 59 percent in the first quarter and up from 61 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between June 11 and June 18 by telephone calls to 384 New York residents adults via landline and cell phones and 456 responses drawn from a proprietary online panel of New Yorkers.
It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, according to SRI.