Statewide sentiment rises in same period Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell slightly to 68.0 in the second quarter of 2020, down 0.9 points from the last measurement of 68.9 in the year’s first quarter. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena […]
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Statewide sentiment rises in same period
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell slightly to 68.0 in the second quarter of 2020, down 0.9 points from the last measurement of 68.9 in the year’s first quarter.
That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released July 15.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 68 was 3 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 71, which rose 4.6 points from the first quarter.
The statewide figure was 7.1 points lower than the second-quarter figure of 78.1 for the entire nation, which is down 11 points from the first-quarter measurement, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
All three indexes for New York are below their breakeven points at which optimism and pessimism balance for the second consecutive quarter, according to SRI. The national indexes dropped but the overall and current indexes remain above the breakeven point while the national future index has also fallen below the breakeven point.
“Driven by gains in both current and future sentiment in [New York City], the statewide index recovered nearly 5 points as New Yorkers try to rebound from this pandemic. The overall index, however, is below the breakeven point and is down 22 points from the end of 2019. Where pluralities of 16-17 points then said they were better off and expected a good year for the state economy, now, under the coronavirus cloud, by 8-14 points they say that they are personally worse off and that the year ahead will be a rocky one for New York State,” Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said.
In the second quarter of 2020, buying plans were up 0.5 percentage points since the first quarter to 19.3 percent for cars and trucks; increased 3.5 points to 42.1 percent for consumer electronics; edged up 1.1 points to 25.3 percent for furniture; up 0.6 points to 8.7 percent for homes; and increased 4 points to 23 percent for major home improvements.
All five buying plans are down between 9 percent (home improvements) and 21 percent (homes) from pre-coronavirus rates, SRI said.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 19 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 26 percent in the first quarter and 42 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.
In addition, 25 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, down from 27 percent in the first quarter and 41 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
SRI noted that the 25 percent gas-price concern figure represents “the lowest percentage in the 12-year history” of SRI’s tracking of the impact of gas prices on New York State consumers.
When asked about food prices, 54 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 49 percent in the first quarter and 56 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.
At the same time, 58 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, up from 55 percent in the first quarter and 58 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between June 28 and July 9 by random telephone calls to 410 New York adults via landline and cell phone. The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, according to SRI.
