Upstate consumer sentiment inches up in ‘strange’ September results

The continued “uncertainty” about the national economy led to statewide consumer-sentiment numbers in September that one analyst called “strange.”

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose 0.6 points to 71.7 in September, according to the latest monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released on Oct. 2.

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 71.7 is a combination of the current-sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 80 is down 2.2 points from August, while the future-sentiment level increased 2.4 points to 66.4, according to the SRI data.

The Upstate figure was 4.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 76.2, which was up 2.9 points from August, SRI said.

New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 1.3 points lower than the figure for the entire nation of 77.5, which was down 4.6 points from August, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

The analysis of the sentiment levels involved led to some head scratching at SRI.

“It’s probably the strangest set of results I’ve ever seen,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

The nation’s sentiment figure is down nearly five points, while New York’s sentiment level rose three points, he notes.

If the fear of the government shutdown and concern about the debt limit are factors in those sentiment levels, Lonnstrom figures it would affect consumers the same way everywhere because it’s a “big national issue,” he says.

“And yet we [New York] went up and the nation went down, so that was kind of strange,” he says.

Within the state, the consumer-sentiment level in New York City was up 4.1 points, while the Upstate region remained “flat,” rising just 0.6 points; older New Yorkers rose 4 points, while younger New Yorkers (under age 55) remained unchanged; and low-income New Yorkers (annual salary below $50,000) rose nearly 6 points, while higher-income New Yorkers sentiment decreased 2.4 points, according to the SRI data.

“Most of these strange, mixed results are the result of fear, as opposed to the economics of the situation,” Lonnstrom believes.

September wasn’t a bad month for economic news, he contends, but also notes that concerns remain about the debt ceiling, along with predictions of slow economic growth, a job market that remains “weak,” fear of higher interest rates, concern about inflation, and the ongoing debate about the federal health-care reform law.

“There’s just a tremendous amount of uncertainty out there and that produced this weird mixture of results,” Lonnstrom says.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 76.2 is down 2 points from September 2012, up 14.5 points from September 2011, and has increased 13.4 points compared to September 2010, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 56.3 in September 2008.

Besides determining consumer sentiment, SRI’s monthly survey also examines respondents’ plans for buying big-ticket items in the next six months.

In September, buying plans were up 1.3 points to 35.8 percent for consumer electronics; rose 5.1 points to 23.1 percent for furniture; increased 1.9 points to 5.7 percent for homes; and inched up 1.1 points to 17.3 percent for major home improvements.

Buying plans remained unchanged for cars and trucks at 12.9 percent, according to the SRI data.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 71 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which remained unchanged from August and is up from 66 percent in July.

In addition, 57 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 59 percent in August, according to SRI.

When asked about food prices, 71 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 66 percent in August. About 66 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, down from 67 percent in August.

SRI conducted its consumer-sentiment survey in September by random telephone calls to 811 New York residents over the age of 18.

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI says. Buying plans, which are listed as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, according to SRI.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

The continued “uncertainty” about the national economy led to statewide consumer-sentiment numbers in September that one analyst called “strange.”

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose 0.6 points to 71.7 in September, according to the latest monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released on Oct. 2.

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 71.7 is a combination of the current-sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 80 is down 2.2 points from August, while the future-sentiment level increased 2.4 points to 66.4, according to the SRI data.

The Upstate figure was 4.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 76.2, which was up 2.9 points from August, SRI said.

New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 1.3 points lower than the figure for the entire nation of 77.5, which was down 4.6 points from August, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

The analysis of the sentiment levels involved led to some head scratching at SRI.

“It’s probably the strangest set of results I’ve ever seen,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

The nation’s sentiment figure is down nearly five points, while New York’s sentiment level rose three points, he notes.

If the fear of the government shutdown and concern about the debt limit are factors in those sentiment levels, Lonnstrom figures it would affect consumers the same way everywhere because it’s a “big national issue,” he says.

“And yet we [New York] went up and the nation went down, so that was kind of strange,” he says.

Within the state, the consumer-sentiment level in New York City was up 4.1 points, while the Upstate region remained “flat,” rising just 0.6 points; older New Yorkers rose 4 points, while younger New Yorkers (under age 55) remained unchanged; and low-income New Yorkers (annual salary below $50,000) rose nearly 6 points, while higher-income New Yorkers sentiment decreased 2.4 points, according to the SRI data.

“Most of these strange, mixed results are the result of fear, as opposed to the economics of the situation,” Lonnstrom believes.

September wasn’t a bad month for economic news, he contends, but also notes that concerns remain about the debt ceiling, along with predictions of slow economic growth, a job market that remains “weak,” fear of higher interest rates, concern about inflation, and the ongoing debate about the federal health-care reform law.

“There’s just a tremendous amount of uncertainty out there and that produced this weird mixture of results,” Lonnstrom says.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 76.2 is down 2 points from September 2012, up 14.5 points from September 2011, and has increased 13.4 points compared to September 2010, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 56.3 in September 2008.

Besides determining consumer sentiment, SRI’s monthly survey also examines respondents’ plans for buying big-ticket items in the next six months.

In September, buying plans were up 1.3 points to 35.8 percent for consumer electronics; rose 5.1 points to 23.1 percent for furniture; increased 1.9 points to 5.7 percent for homes; and inched up 1.1 points to 17.3 percent for major home improvements.

Buying plans remained unchanged for cars and trucks at 12.9 percent, according to the SRI data.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 71 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which remained unchanged from August and is up from 66 percent in July.

In addition, 57 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 59 percent in August, according to SRI.

When asked about food prices, 71 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 66 percent in August. About 66 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, down from 67 percent in August.

SRI conducted its consumer-sentiment survey in September by random telephone calls to 811 New York residents over the age of 18.

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI says. Buying plans, which are listed as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, according to SRI.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com