State sentiment rises slightly Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 71.0 in the fourth quarter of 2020, down 2.8 points from the reading of 73.8 in the third quarter. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 6. Upstate’s overall […]
State sentiment rises slightly
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 71.0 in the fourth quarter of 2020, down 2.8 points from the reading of 73.8 in the third quarter.
That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 6.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 71.0 was 3.8 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 74.8., which rose 0.4 points from the third quarter.
The statewide figure was 5.9 points lower than the fourth-quarter figure of 80.7 for the entire nation, which was up 0.3 points from the third-quarter measurement, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
All three indexes for New York held steady or rose slightly this past quarter and are approaching — or in the case of the future index — exceeding their breakeven points at which optimism and pessimism balance. The national indexes were little changed, but as the national future outlook fell slightly, New Yorkers now are more optimistic about future economic conditions than the nation as a whole.
“First glance tells us that consumer sentiment, up less than a point this quarter, is little changed but like so many things it depends upon party registration,” Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said. “Democrats are now far more bullish about economic conditions as their index soared by nearly 12 points overall and by almost 15 points on the future score. Republicans whose index last quarter was 17 points higher than Democrats, now are pointed in the pessimistic direction, falling 14 points and trailing Democrats by nearly 9 points. Despite COVID, Democrats are now only down 3 points from last winter, while Republicans are down 32 points.”
In the fourth quarter of 2020, buying plans were up 1.2 percentage points since the third quarter to 20.7 percent for cars and trucks; edged up 3 points to 49.6 percent consumer electronics; rose 2.1 points to 29.7 percent for furniture; were up 0.8 points to 13.4 percent for homes; and increased 1 point to 27.5 percent for major home improvements, per the SRI data.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 29 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, down from 31 percent in the third quarter and up from 19 percent in the second quarter.
In addition, 34 percent of statewide survey takers said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, up from 30 percent in the third quarter and 25 percent in the second quarter.
When asked about food prices, 58 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 57 percent in the third quarter and 54 percent in the second quarter.
At the same time, 57 percent of statewide consumers indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, down from 59 percent in the third quarter and 58 percent in the second quarter.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between Dec. 10 and Dec. 16 by random telephone calls to 404 New York adults via landline and cell phone. The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, according to SRI.
