Upstate consumer confidence rises in pre-election, pre-Sandy polling

Upstate consumers turned out to be elevating their willingness to spend in the month leading up to the presidential election, according to new polling the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Nov. 9.

The institute’s index of overall consumer confidence for upstate New York sprung up 4.6 points to 75.6 in October. It essentially moved to its break-even point of about 76, meaning an equal number of Upstate residents voiced optimism and pessimism during the month.

Consumers in the region expressed a better outlook for the future than they did for the present. Upstate’s future consumer confidence index swelled 6.3 points to 76.6, while its current confidence index ticked up 1.9 points to 73.9.

Those gains were roughly in line with rising national consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. That overall index recorded a 4.3 point jump to 82.6 in October. The nation’s future confidence leapt 5.5 points to 79, while its current confidence moved up 2.4 points to 88.1.

Heightening willingness to spend may have hinted at President Barack Obama’s re-election, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. But that same re-election will have a major influence on confidence readings in the future, he says. So will another event that was not reflected in October’s confidence indexes — Superstorm Sandy battering New York City, New Jersey, and other parts of the East Coast.

“November is going to be fascinating, I think,” Lonnstrom says. “These October numbers are pre-hurricane, pre-election, and I’m sure some of them are going to change dramatically.”

SRI’s readings show New York City lost confidence in October, even before the storm. Its overall confidence slipped 1.9 points to 80.6. Future confidence slid 2.9 points to 83.4, and current confidence edged down 0.4 points to 76.2.

A measurement of confidence in all of New York state was nearly unchanged during the month. Overall confidence edged up 0.5 points to 78.7. Current confidence increased 0.4 points to 75.4, while future confidence picked up 0.5 points to 80.8.

Gas and food prices

Consumers felt a major pinch from rising food prices in October, according to SRI’s survey. That overshadowed a plateau in worries about the cost of gasoline.

More than three-quarters of upstate consumers, 77 percent, said food prices posed a somewhat serious or very serious problem, up from 66 percent the previous month. And 62 percent said both gas and food prices were a problem, up from 57 percent.

The portion of upstate consumers singling out gasoline prices as a problem was 71 percent. That’s about equal with last month’s reading of 70 percent.

Upstate’s concerns echoed throughout the state as a whole, where 70 percent of consumers expressed worries about food prices, up from 65 percent in September. Both gas and food prices presented a problem for 53 percent of residents, up from 49 percent. Gasoline prices were a problem for 60 percent of residents, down from 61 percent.

 “I was absolutely amazed to see a 5-point swing in concern about food prices,” Lonnstrom says. “That was a big figure.”

New York buying plans

A drop in home-buying plans headlined SRI’s monthly statewide reading of intentions to make major purchases. Just 2.6 percent of consumers said in October that they planned to buy homes, a drop of 0.9 points from the previous month.

“It’s not a big point drop, because you’re never going to have 20 percent of people saying, ‘I’m going to buy a house in the next six months,’ ” Lonnstrom says. “But percentage-wise, it’s a huge drop, about 25 percent. If this holds, that’s a very negative figure.”

Buying plans also fell for cars and trucks, slipping by 0.7 points to 12.4 percent. And they dropped for furniture by 1.9 points to 20.9 percent.

The portion of consumers planning computer purchases rose, however. It increased 1.6 points to 17.6 percent. Plans to make major home improvements increased as well, ticking up 1 point to 15 percent.

Superstorm Sandy’s impact on New York City at the beginning of November will likely affect buying plans in the future, according to Lonnstrom.

“That’s going to have a big effect on Christmas buying plans, I think,” he says. “I think home improvements might do well, but I think it may have a negative impact on the Christmas buying season.”

SRI made random telephone calls to 807 New York state residents over the age of 18 in October to develop the consumer-confidence results. They do not have a margin of error because they are developed from statistical calculations. Buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com

Upstate consumers turned out to be elevating their willingness to spend in the month leading up to the presidential election, according to new polling the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Nov. 9.

The institute’s index of overall consumer confidence for upstate New York sprung up 4.6 points to 75.6 in October. It essentially moved to its break-even point of about 76, meaning an equal number of Upstate residents voiced optimism and pessimism during the month.

Consumers in the region expressed a better outlook for the future than they did for the present. Upstate’s future consumer confidence index swelled 6.3 points to 76.6, while its current confidence index ticked up 1.9 points to 73.9.

Those gains were roughly in line with rising national consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. That overall index recorded a 4.3 point jump to 82.6 in October. The nation’s future confidence leapt 5.5 points to 79, while its current confidence moved up 2.4 points to 88.1.

Heightening willingness to spend may have hinted at President Barack Obama’s re-election, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. But that same re-election will have a major influence on confidence readings in the future, he says. So will another event that was not reflected in October’s confidence indexes — Superstorm Sandy battering New York City, New Jersey, and other parts of the East Coast.

“November is going to be fascinating, I think,” Lonnstrom says. “These October numbers are pre-hurricane, pre-election, and I’m sure some of them are going to change dramatically.”

SRI’s readings show New York City lost confidence in October, even before the storm. Its overall confidence slipped 1.9 points to 80.6. Future confidence slid 2.9 points to 83.4, and current confidence edged down 0.4 points to 76.2.

A measurement of confidence in all of New York state was nearly unchanged during the month. Overall confidence edged up 0.5 points to 78.7. Current confidence increased 0.4 points to 75.4, while future confidence picked up 0.5 points to 80.8.

Gas and food prices

Consumers felt a major pinch from rising food prices in October, according to SRI’s survey. That overshadowed a plateau in worries about the cost of gasoline.

More than three-quarters of upstate consumers, 77 percent, said food prices posed a somewhat serious or very serious problem, up from 66 percent the previous month. And 62 percent said both gas and food prices were a problem, up from 57 percent.

The portion of upstate consumers singling out gasoline prices as a problem was 71 percent. That’s about equal with last month’s reading of 70 percent.

Upstate’s concerns echoed throughout the state as a whole, where 70 percent of consumers expressed worries about food prices, up from 65 percent in September. Both gas and food prices presented a problem for 53 percent of residents, up from 49 percent. Gasoline prices were a problem for 60 percent of residents, down from 61 percent.

 “I was absolutely amazed to see a 5-point swing in concern about food prices,” Lonnstrom says. “That was a big figure.”

New York buying plans

A drop in home-buying plans headlined SRI’s monthly statewide reading of intentions to make major purchases. Just 2.6 percent of consumers said in October that they planned to buy homes, a drop of 0.9 points from the previous month.

“It’s not a big point drop, because you’re never going to have 20 percent of people saying, ‘I’m going to buy a house in the next six months,’ ” Lonnstrom says. “But percentage-wise, it’s a huge drop, about 25 percent. If this holds, that’s a very negative figure.”

Buying plans also fell for cars and trucks, slipping by 0.7 points to 12.4 percent. And they dropped for furniture by 1.9 points to 20.9 percent.

The portion of consumers planning computer purchases rose, however. It increased 1.6 points to 17.6 percent. Plans to make major home improvements increased as well, ticking up 1 point to 15 percent.

Superstorm Sandy’s impact on New York City at the beginning of November will likely affect buying plans in the future, according to Lonnstrom.

“That’s going to have a big effect on Christmas buying plans, I think,” he says. “I think home improvements might do well, but I think it may have a negative impact on the Christmas buying season.”

SRI made random telephone calls to 807 New York state residents over the age of 18 in October to develop the consumer-confidence results. They do not have a margin of error because they are developed from statistical calculations. Buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com