Upstate consumer confidence rises in December

Increasing hopes for the future helped boost consumer confidence in upstate New York in December as consumers expressed a greater willingness to spend than in previous months. 

Overall consumer confidence in upstate New York moved up 5.8 points in December to 66.4, according to the latest monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Future confidence helped drive the increase, rising 9 points to 66.7, while current confidence rose by 0.8 points to 66.

Confidence increased statewide, with overall New York State consumer confidence climbing 5.1 points to 67.3. Future statewide confidence rose 6.3 points to 68.1, and current confidence increased 3.1 points to 66.

“Those are meaningful increases,” says SRI Director Donald Levy. “There’s a consistent tone across the entire country, New York being part of it, that things are improving.”

National overall consumer confidence jumped 5.8 points to 69.9, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. Future national confidence swelled 8.2 points to 63.6 while current confidence edged up 2 points to 79.6.

December marked the second consecutive month of increasing consumer confidence in upstate New York and the state as a whole. But consumers are merely recovering from a low point in October, Levy says. 

“You’ve got to put it into perspective,” he says. “What we see is that consumers are starting to feel a little bit better than they did in the early and mid-fall. We’re coming back from a point where consumer confidence was gone.”

In October, overall upstate consumer confidence bottomed out for the year at 55.7 points. New York State consumer confidence in that month was 59.1.

December’s survey results are still below the break-even point of 75. Results below 75 indicate more consumers answered SRI’s survey with negative answers than positive answers.

“The big question is, ‘Is this part of a trend where we see consumer confidence continue to rise?’ ” Levy says. “We don’t see any evidence of that at this point. Buying plans continue to be absolutely flat.”

For example, just 3 percent of consumers indicated in December that they plan to purchase homes, a decrease of 0.5 points from November. In a vibrant economy, about 6 percent of consumers plan to buy homes, Levy says.

And just 13.2 percent of consumers said they planned major home improvements, an increase of 1 point from November. Between 21 percent and 24 percent of consumers plan major home improvements in a strong economy, Levy says.

Gas and food prices

A majority of upstate survey respondents continued to say gasoline and food prices are a financial problem.

The portion of upstate residents indicating gasoline prices as a problem in December rose 4 points to 69 percent. The portion indicating food prices as a problem dipped 1 point to 73 percent. 

Meanwhile, 60 percent of upstate residents said both gas and food prices pose a problem. That is an increase of 4 points from November.

“Despite the fact that gasoline lessened a little bit in price, you still have 69 percent of people in Upstate who say gasoline has caused a hardship,” Levy says. “That’s tough.”

Statewide, the portion of residents naming gasoline prices as a problem rose 3 points to 59 percent, and the portion who said food prices were a problem climbed 2 points to 71 percent. An increasing percentage of statewide residents also named both gas and food as a financial problem — 51 percent, up 4 points from November.

SRI made random telephone calls to 801 New York State residents who were over the age of 18 in December 2011 to conduct the survey. Margin of error does not apply to the consumer confidence index results because they are derived from statistical calculations, according to SRI.     

Increasing hopes for the future helped boost consumer confidence in upstate New York in December as consumers expressed a greater willingness to spend than in previous months. 

Overall consumer confidence in upstate New York moved up 5.8 points in December to 66.4, according to the latest monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Future confidence helped drive the increase, rising 9 points to 66.7, while current confidence rose by 0.8 points to 66.

Confidence increased statewide, with overall New York State consumer confidence climbing 5.1 points to 67.3. Future statewide confidence rose 6.3 points to 68.1, and current confidence increased 3.1 points to 66.

“Those are meaningful increases,” says SRI Director Donald Levy. “There’s a consistent tone across the entire country, New York being part of it, that things are improving.”

National overall consumer confidence jumped 5.8 points to 69.9, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. Future national confidence swelled 8.2 points to 63.6 while current confidence edged up 2 points to 79.6.

December marked the second consecutive month of increasing consumer confidence in upstate New York and the state as a whole. But consumers are merely recovering from a low point in October, Levy says. 

“You’ve got to put it into perspective,” he says. “What we see is that consumers are starting to feel a little bit better than they did in the early and mid-fall. We’re coming back from a point where consumer confidence was gone.”

In October, overall upstate consumer confidence bottomed out for the year at 55.7 points. New York State consumer confidence in that month was 59.1.

December’s survey results are still below the break-even point of 75. Results below 75 indicate more consumers answered SRI’s survey with negative answers than positive answers.

“The big question is, ‘Is this part of a trend where we see consumer confidence continue to rise?’ ” Levy says. “We don’t see any evidence of that at this point. Buying plans continue to be absolutely flat.”

For example, just 3 percent of consumers indicated in December that they plan to purchase homes, a decrease of 0.5 points from November. In a vibrant economy, about 6 percent of consumers plan to buy homes, Levy says.

And just 13.2 percent of consumers said they planned major home improvements, an increase of 1 point from November. Between 21 percent and 24 percent of consumers plan major home improvements in a strong economy, Levy says.

Gas and food prices

A majority of upstate survey respondents continued to say gasoline and food prices are a financial problem.

The portion of upstate residents indicating gasoline prices as a problem in December rose 4 points to 69 percent. The portion indicating food prices as a problem dipped 1 point to 73 percent. 

Meanwhile, 60 percent of upstate residents said both gas and food prices pose a problem. That is an increase of 4 points from November.

“Despite the fact that gasoline lessened a little bit in price, you still have 69 percent of people in Upstate who say gasoline has caused a hardship,” Levy says. “That’s tough.”

Statewide, the portion of residents naming gasoline prices as a problem rose 3 points to 59 percent, and the portion who said food prices were a problem climbed 2 points to 71 percent. An increasing percentage of statewide residents also named both gas and food as a financial problem — 51 percent, up 4 points from November.

SRI made random telephone calls to 801 New York State residents who were over the age of 18 in December 2011 to conduct the survey. Margin of error does not apply to the consumer confidence index results because they are derived from statistical calculations, according to SRI.