Upstate New York consumers grew slightly more willing to spend in July, according to a monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). SRI’s overall consumer-confidence index for upstate New York rose 2.1 points to 71.3. The increase marks a reversal from June, when the index plunged 5.5 points. Although July’s bump up in confidence […]
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Upstate New York consumers grew slightly more willing to spend in July, according to a monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).
SRI’s overall consumer-confidence index for upstate New York rose 2.1 points to 71.3. The increase marks a reversal from June, when the index plunged 5.5 points.
Although July’s bump up in confidence did not make up for the previous month’s loss, it did move the optimism index closer to its break-even point of 75. That’s the spot at which consumers split equally between expressing optimism and pessimism.
A confidence index above 75 means more consumers were optimistic than pessimistic. An index below 75 indicates prevailing pessimism.
July’s confidence index rose as upstate consumers became more willing to spend in both the present and the future. Upstate’s current consumer-confidence index moved up 1.9 points to 76.2, while its future confidence index climbed 2.2 points to 68.1.
“When we look at the current component, we’re slightly above the break-even point, although it’s very close,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. “It’s the future of Upstate that’s not looking so good.”
Consumers in New York State as a whole were essentially split between optimism and pessimism. The state’s overall-confidence index crept up 0.9 points to 75.4. Its current-confidence index increased 1.5 points to 75, and its future-confidence index nudged up by 0.5 points to 75.7.
Metropolitan New York City’s consumers displayed little change in attitude from last month. The area’s overall confidence slipped 0.2 points to 77.6. Meanwhile, a 1.2-point gain in current confidence pushed that indicator to 74.3 but was counterbalanced by a 1-point drop in future confidence, which declined to 79.8.
“July was kind of a ‘blah’ month,” Lonnstrom says. “Every time something good happened, something bad happened. As a result, we didn’t really move a lot.”
That trend held true across the nation, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. It showed national consumer confidence eroded 0.9 points in July to 72.3.
The nation’s current confidence inched up 1.2 points to 82.7. But its future confidence dipped 2.2 points to 65.6.
Gas and food prices
The portion of upstate New Yorkers reporting hardships due to gasoline and food prices diminished slightly in July, according to SRI. The institute’s survey showed that 59 percent of upstate residents called gasoline prices a problem, down from 63 percent in June.
When it came to food prices, 68 percent of upstate consumers said they faced a challenge, a notch below the 69 percent who reported a problem paying for food in June. And 51 percent of the region’s residents said both gas and food were problematic in July, below June’s reading of 57 percent.
Statewide, opinions on gasoline and food prices trended in the opposite direction. In July, 56 percent of New York’s consumers cited gasoline prices as a problem, up from 55 percent the previous month. Food prices were a challenge for 68 percent of the state’s residents, an increase from 66 percent the previous month.
Finally, the SRI survey found 47 percent of statewide residents listing both gasoline and food prices as a problem. That’s above 46 percent doing so in June.
New York buying plans
Consumers increased their plans to buy computers, furniture, and major home improvements in July, SRI said. They drew back on intentions to purchase cars and trucks, as well as homes.
Buying plans rose 1.9 points for computers to reach 15.3 percent of consumers saying in July that they planned to buy a computer. Purchase plans ticked up 0.1 points for furniture to 19.9 percent.
Major home-improvement buying plans jumped 2.9 points in July. SRI found that 17.4 percent of consumers planned to purchase a major home improvement.
“People are still afraid to go out and buy a house,” Lonnstrom says. “As a result, we’ve got this pent-up demand. They’re saying, ‘If we’re not going to buy, we might as well fix up where we are.’ ”
Home-buying plans fell 1.4 points to 4.2 percent. Plans to buy cars and trucks slid 0.5 points to 10.3 percent.
SRI calculated its consumer-confidence index after surveying 804 New York State residents over the age of 18 in July. A margin of error does not apply to consumer confidence index results, SRI says. However, buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.
Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com
