Upstate consumer confidence drops for third consecutive month

Consumers in upstate New York had a growing case of the blues for the third straight month in January.

An index of overall consumer sentiment for Upstate New York from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) fell 2.5 points during the month to 68.3. The decline, which came after a 2.8-point drop in December and a 2-point dip in November, means consumers pulled back on their willingness to spend.

Upstate’s consumer-confidence reading has now slipped firmly below its break-even point of about 76 after flirting with the mark in October. Confidence-index readings above 76 indicate primarily optimistic consumers, while readings below 76 mean more consumers were pessimistic.

Confidence declined regarding both current conditions and hopes for the future. The region’s current-confidence index slipped 1.9 points to 72.4. Its future-confidence index skidded 2.9 points to 65.7.

“We’re almost identical to where we were in January 2012,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, a professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. “All we did was drift for the whole year.”

In January of 2012, Upstate’s overall confidence notched 69.5. Its current confidence was 73.9, and its future confidence was 66.7.

Back in the current year, consumers in the metropolitan New York City area also lost confidence. The area’s overall sentiment score dipped 3.4 points to 77.9. Its current score edged down 0.8 points to 75, while its future score crumbled 5.1 points to 79.8.

That helped drag down indexes measuring consumer sentiment in New York State as a whole. The state’s overall index eroded 2.8 points to 74.5, its current index ticked down 1.1 points to 74.3, and its future index tumbled 3.9 points to 74.7.

SRI’s data shows confidence diverging slightly between higher-income earners and lower-income earners in the state. Overall confidence climbed among higher-income residents, moving up 1.1 points to 80.2. It moved down for lower-income residents, crashing 5 points to 68.2.

“Everybody was down except high-income people,” Lonnstrom says. “And they were only up a point, so there was not a lot there.”

Also rising by about a point was a confidence reading for the U.S. as a whole. The University of Michigan’s national Index of Consumer Sentiment edged up 0.9 points to 73.8. Its current index lost 2 points to 85, but its future index gained 2.8 points to 66.6.

Gas and food prices

Food prices became a larger problem for upstate’s consumers in January, according to SRI’s polling. The portion of the region’s consumers naming food prices as a problem leapt 6 points to 72 percent.

Gasoline prices were also cited as a problem by more than half of upstate residents, but the portion pointing to gas prices as an issue rose just 2 points to 64 percent. The portion of residents naming both gas and food prices as a problem jumped 5 points to 56 percent.

“If you look at gas prices, they stayed very level,” Lonnstrom says. “However, food prices took a jump up.”

Statewide, 71 percent of consumers pointed to food prices as a problem, up 4 points from December. Concern for gas prices held even in January at 54 percent, while concern over both gas and food prices hit 47 percent, up 2 points from the previous month.

New York buying plans

Buying plans had a rocky month in January, as consumers cut back on intentions to purchase goods in four of five categories that SRI measures.

But the remaining category, homes, provided some reason for hope, Lonnstrom says. Home-buying plans jumped 1.5 points so that 4.4 percent of consumers intended to purchase a home in the next six months.

“The one bright spot is perhaps home-buying,” Lonnstrom says. “If the housing market could turn around, we could see a better year here.”

Plans to buy cars and trucks deflated 0.9 points to 10.6 percent, and plans to buy computers dialed down 3 points to 14.9 percent. Furniture-buying plans sank 0.1 point to 20.6 percent, and plans to purchase major home improvements edged 0.4 points toward the basement, moving to 16.2 percent.

SRI conducted its monthly consumer-confidence survey by making random telephone calls to 801 New York residents over the age of 18 in January. A margin of error does not apply to consumer-confidence index results, which come from a series of statistical calculations, SRI says. Buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com

Consumers in upstate New York had a growing case of the blues for the third straight month in January.

An index of overall consumer sentiment for Upstate New York from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) fell 2.5 points during the month to 68.3. The decline, which came after a 2.8-point drop in December and a 2-point dip in November, means consumers pulled back on their willingness to spend.

Upstate’s consumer-confidence reading has now slipped firmly below its break-even point of about 76 after flirting with the mark in October. Confidence-index readings above 76 indicate primarily optimistic consumers, while readings below 76 mean more consumers were pessimistic.

Confidence declined regarding both current conditions and hopes for the future. The region’s current-confidence index slipped 1.9 points to 72.4. Its future-confidence index skidded 2.9 points to 65.7.

“We’re almost identical to where we were in January 2012,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, a professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. “All we did was drift for the whole year.”

In January of 2012, Upstate’s overall confidence notched 69.5. Its current confidence was 73.9, and its future confidence was 66.7.

Back in the current year, consumers in the metropolitan New York City area also lost confidence. The area’s overall sentiment score dipped 3.4 points to 77.9. Its current score edged down 0.8 points to 75, while its future score crumbled 5.1 points to 79.8.

That helped drag down indexes measuring consumer sentiment in New York State as a whole. The state’s overall index eroded 2.8 points to 74.5, its current index ticked down 1.1 points to 74.3, and its future index tumbled 3.9 points to 74.7.

SRI’s data shows confidence diverging slightly between higher-income earners and lower-income earners in the state. Overall confidence climbed among higher-income residents, moving up 1.1 points to 80.2. It moved down for lower-income residents, crashing 5 points to 68.2.

“Everybody was down except high-income people,” Lonnstrom says. “And they were only up a point, so there was not a lot there.”

Also rising by about a point was a confidence reading for the U.S. as a whole. The University of Michigan’s national Index of Consumer Sentiment edged up 0.9 points to 73.8. Its current index lost 2 points to 85, but its future index gained 2.8 points to 66.6.

Gas and food prices

Food prices became a larger problem for upstate’s consumers in January, according to SRI’s polling. The portion of the region’s consumers naming food prices as a problem leapt 6 points to 72 percent.

Gasoline prices were also cited as a problem by more than half of upstate residents, but the portion pointing to gas prices as an issue rose just 2 points to 64 percent. The portion of residents naming both gas and food prices as a problem jumped 5 points to 56 percent.

“If you look at gas prices, they stayed very level,” Lonnstrom says. “However, food prices took a jump up.”

Statewide, 71 percent of consumers pointed to food prices as a problem, up 4 points from December. Concern for gas prices held even in January at 54 percent, while concern over both gas and food prices hit 47 percent, up 2 points from the previous month.

New York buying plans

Buying plans had a rocky month in January, as consumers cut back on intentions to purchase goods in four of five categories that SRI measures.

But the remaining category, homes, provided some reason for hope, Lonnstrom says. Home-buying plans jumped 1.5 points so that 4.4 percent of consumers intended to purchase a home in the next six months.

“The one bright spot is perhaps home-buying,” Lonnstrom says. “If the housing market could turn around, we could see a better year here.”

Plans to buy cars and trucks deflated 0.9 points to 10.6 percent, and plans to buy computers dialed down 3 points to 14.9 percent. Furniture-buying plans sank 0.1 point to 20.6 percent, and plans to purchase major home improvements edged 0.4 points toward the basement, moving to 16.2 percent.

SRI conducted its monthly consumer-confidence survey by making random telephone calls to 801 New York residents over the age of 18 in January. A margin of error does not apply to consumer-confidence index results, which come from a series of statistical calculations, SRI says. Buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com