Upstate consumer confidence continues to climb in January

Consumers in upstate New York became more willing to spend for the third straight month in January, expressing higher current confidence despite unchanged hopes for the future.

The overall consumer-confidence index in upstate New York rose 3.1 points in January to 69.5, according to a monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Current confidence spiked 7.9 points to 73.9, although future confidence remained unchanged at 66.7.

Confidence bounded upward at a faster rate in New York state as a whole, where overall confidence swelled 7.5 points to 74.8. That nearly reached the survey’s break-even point of 75 — the point at which consumers report equal amounts optimism and pessimism.

Results below 75 indicate more consumers responded to the survey with negative answers than positive ones. Any results over 75 indicate more consumers gave positive answers.

Current consumer confidence throughout New York State jumped 6 points to 72. The future-confidence index for the state added 8.5 points to 76.6.

The statewide results are the highest in SRI’s monthly survey since January 2011. Overall consumer confidence registered 76.5 at that time.

“I think there is an optimistic bump in January,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. “It is a new year. People start the year with some hope.”

This January also seemed to have less gloomy news than previous months, according to Lonnstrom. Talk of double-dip recessions faded, and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo continued to demonstrate a strong presence, he says.

“There was a [consumer confidence] bump last January, and there is some of that here,” he says. “Cuomo had a good year. He’s looking good in the polls.”

Much of New York State’s rise in confidence levels comes from the metropolitan New York City area. New York City’s overall confidence leaped 10.4 points to 78.2. Its current confidence moved up 5.3 points to 71.3, and its future confidence surged 13.6 points to 82.7.

Consumer-confidence gains in New York state in January echoed increases in the nation as a whole. National overall consumer confidence rose by 5.1 points to 75 in January, as measured by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

National current confidence rose 4.6 points to 84.2. U.S. future confidence gained 5.5 points to 69.1.

New York buying plans

The January spike in consumer confidence was reflected in New York state consumers’ buying plans. Buying plans increased in each of the five categories that SRI measures.

The portion of consumers indicating they plan to buy a car or truck rose 5.2 points to 13.3 percent, and the share indicating they plan to purchase computers increased 0.6 points to 16.3 percent. The portion of consumers expecting to buy furniture increased 4.1 points to 21.6 percent.

And the number of consumers who anticipated buying homes edged up 1 percentage point to 4 percent. The portion planning to purchase major home improvements climbed 4.1 points to 17.3 percent.

Home buying and overall consumer spending remain major problems, along with the slow job market, Lonnstrom says. Consumer confidence is unlikely to soar until consumers increase spending plans, buy more homes, and experience an improving job market, he says.

“We might see some modest growth, but we’re not going to see boom times until we solve those issues,” he says. “And they feed off of each other.”

Gas and food prices

A majority of upstate New Yorkers remain concerned about gasoline and food prices, the SRI survey found.

In January, the portion of upstate residents who said gasoline prices pose a financial problem held steady at 69 percent. The number who indicated food prices were a problem inched up 2 percentage points to 75 percent. And 60 percent of residents said both gas and food were a problem — the same as in December.

Statewide, 59 percent of residents named gasolinae prices as a problem and 71 percent said food prices were a problem — both of which were unchanged since December. The share of residents who said both gas and food prices were a problem was 51 percent, also unchanged since December.

“There’s a lot of talk about gas prices climbing back up to that $4 per gallon range,” Lonnstrom says. “And if it hits that, it’s going to hurt consumer confidence.”

SRI conducted the survey by making random telephone calls to 804 New York state residents over the age of 18 in January.
Margin of error does not apply to the consumer-confidence index results, because they are derived from statistical calculations, but buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, according to SRI.       

Consumers in upstate New York became more willing to spend for the third straight month in January, expressing higher current confidence despite unchanged hopes for the future.

The overall consumer-confidence index in upstate New York rose 3.1 points in January to 69.5, according to a monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Current confidence spiked 7.9 points to 73.9, although future confidence remained unchanged at 66.7.

Confidence bounded upward at a faster rate in New York state as a whole, where overall confidence swelled 7.5 points to 74.8. That nearly reached the survey’s break-even point of 75 — the point at which consumers report equal amounts optimism and pessimism.

Results below 75 indicate more consumers responded to the survey with negative answers than positive ones. Any results over 75 indicate more consumers gave positive answers.

Current consumer confidence throughout New York State jumped 6 points to 72. The future-confidence index for the state added 8.5 points to 76.6.

The statewide results are the highest in SRI’s monthly survey since January 2011. Overall consumer confidence registered 76.5 at that time.

“I think there is an optimistic bump in January,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. “It is a new year. People start the year with some hope.”

This January also seemed to have less gloomy news than previous months, according to Lonnstrom. Talk of double-dip recessions faded, and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo continued to demonstrate a strong presence, he says.

“There was a [consumer confidence] bump last January, and there is some of that here,” he says. “Cuomo had a good year. He’s looking good in the polls.”

Much of New York State’s rise in confidence levels comes from the metropolitan New York City area. New York City’s overall confidence leaped 10.4 points to 78.2. Its current confidence moved up 5.3 points to 71.3, and its future confidence surged 13.6 points to 82.7.

Consumer-confidence gains in New York state in January echoed increases in the nation as a whole. National overall consumer confidence rose by 5.1 points to 75 in January, as measured by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

National current confidence rose 4.6 points to 84.2. U.S. future confidence gained 5.5 points to 69.1.

New York buying plans

The January spike in consumer confidence was reflected in New York state consumers’ buying plans. Buying plans increased in each of the five categories that SRI measures.

The portion of consumers indicating they plan to buy a car or truck rose 5.2 points to 13.3 percent, and the share indicating they plan to purchase computers increased 0.6 points to 16.3 percent. The portion of consumers expecting to buy furniture increased 4.1 points to 21.6 percent.

And the number of consumers who anticipated buying homes edged up 1 percentage point to 4 percent. The portion planning to purchase major home improvements climbed 4.1 points to 17.3 percent.

Home buying and overall consumer spending remain major problems, along with the slow job market, Lonnstrom says. Consumer confidence is unlikely to soar until consumers increase spending plans, buy more homes, and experience an improving job market, he says.

“We might see some modest growth, but we’re not going to see boom times until we solve those issues,” he says. “And they feed off of each other.”

Gas and food prices

A majority of upstate New Yorkers remain concerned about gasoline and food prices, the SRI survey found.

In January, the portion of upstate residents who said gasoline prices pose a financial problem held steady at 69 percent. The number who indicated food prices were a problem inched up 2 percentage points to 75 percent. And 60 percent of residents said both gas and food were a problem — the same as in December.

Statewide, 59 percent of residents named gasolinae prices as a problem and 71 percent said food prices were a problem — both of which were unchanged since December. The share of residents who said both gas and food prices were a problem was 51 percent, also unchanged since December.

“There’s a lot of talk about gas prices climbing back up to that $4 per gallon range,” Lonnstrom says. “And if it hits that, it’s going to hurt consumer confidence.”

SRI conducted the survey by making random telephone calls to 804 New York state residents over the age of 18 in January.
Margin of error does not apply to the consumer-confidence index results, because they are derived from statistical calculations, but buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, according to SRI.