Survey of upstate CEOs reveals severe impact of coronavirus on businesses

Only 31 percent of upstate New York CEOs expect New York State’s economy to return to pre-virus levels of revenue and employment within six months, but 72 percent believe it will recover by the first quarter of 2021 according to a recent survey from the Siena College Research Institute (SCRI).

SCRI’s Upstate New York Business Leader COVID-19 Survey was conducted April 3-14 by online interviews with 307 CEOs from across upstate New York including the Capital region, Central New York, the Finger Lakes region, the Mohawk Valley, the Southern Tier, and Western New York. The survey’s overall margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

The survey results, released on April 16, reveal that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on upstate businesses has been significant. 

• Forty percent of respondents have laid off employees. 

• Almost one-quarter (23 percent) have closed at least one location.

• Expectations for 2020 revenue and profit have been lowered due to the crisis. Eighty-nine percent of the surveyed CEOs predicted “somewhat” (32 percent) or “significantly” (57 percent) less revenue due to the pandemic and 87 percent forecast “somewhat” (27 percent) or “significantly” (60 percent) less profits.

• Over half (58 percent) now plan to purchase fewer fixed assets in 2020 than they did at the start of the year.

• Just under two-thirds (64 percent) have postponed or canceled new initiatives.

• Twenty-eight percent have contacted suppliers, landlords, or financial institutions about the need to delay payments. 

• Forty-four percent have been notified by clients that they will have difficulty paying on time. 

In spite of the negative impacts, 89 percent of the respondents were at least somewhat confident that their business “will survive this crisis and be in business a year from today.” Only 8 percent of respondents said they are “not too confident” or “not at all confident” of surviving.

A majority were also supportive of New York’s ongoing social-distancing policies. Fifty-seven percent of the CEOs said the state’s primary focus should be addressing the public-health crisis, while only 35 percent said New York should plan to relax restrictions on business operations and move towards being back in business by May 1. (Note: The survey was conducted prior to Gov. Andrew Cuomo extending the statewide restrictions on much of business and daily life to May 15.) 

“Despite having to lay off workers and downgrade economic projections, a majority of upstate CEOs agree with the sentiment expressed by one CEO: ‘people and health first, the economy can wait.’ The good news is that virtually all the CEOs we interviewed expect their business to survive this crisis. And 61 percent think that New York State’s ‘social distancing’ efforts, including restrictions on business operations in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 have been about right,” SCRI Director Dr. Don Levy said in a release summarizing the findings.

The survey results showed that optimism regarding state assistance was mixed. Forty-six percent were confident that “New York State government will take the appropriate steps to assist businesses to weather the impacts of COVID-19,” while 50 percent were “not very” or “not at all” confident. 

Confidence was higher in the federal government, with 59 percent saying they were “somewhat” or “very” confident that the federal government would take the appropriate steps to assist New York businesses.

Eighty-six percent said they were at least somewhat familiar with the new and expanded U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) loan provisions. Almost three-quarters (72 percent) planned to participate in the SBA Paycheck Protection Program and 26 percent said they planned to partake in the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program.

The survey was sponsored by the Business Council of New York State, the Greater Binghamton Chamber of Commerce, CenterStateCEO, and the Buffalo Niagara Partnership. 

“The results of this poll showed what many expected; businesses are hurting, especially smaller businesses and those in sectors whose operations have been most impacted by the reasonable state-imposed restrictions. Perhaps the most encouraging result showed employers expect their own companies and their industry sectors to recover by early 2021,” Heather Briccetti, president and CEO of the Business Council of New York State, said in the release.

Robert Simpson, president of CenterState CEO, added, “The scale of the economic disruption we are experiencing is unprecedented. Direct business insight is critical to economic development organizations like ours as we work to assess, respond and mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in New York state. Additional survey details, including cross-tabs and frequencies are available at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI. 

Only 31 percent of upstate New York CEOs expect New York State’s economy to return to pre-virus levels of revenue and employment within six months, but 72 percent believe it will recover by the first quarter of 2021 according to a recent survey from the Siena College Research Institute (SCRI).

SCRI’s Upstate New York Business Leader COVID-19 Survey was conducted April 3-14 by online interviews with 307 CEOs from across upstate New York including the Capital region, Central New York, the Finger Lakes region, the Mohawk Valley, the Southern Tier, and Western New York. The survey’s overall margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

The survey results, released on April 16, reveal that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on upstate businesses has been significant. 

• Forty percent of respondents have laid off employees. 

• Almost one-quarter (23 percent) have closed at least one location.

• Expectations for 2020 revenue and profit have been lowered due to the crisis. Eighty-nine percent of the surveyed CEOs predicted “somewhat” (32 percent) or “significantly” (57 percent) less revenue due to the pandemic and 87 percent forecast “somewhat” (27 percent) or “significantly” (60 percent) less profits.

• Over half (58 percent) now plan to purchase fewer fixed assets in 2020 than they did at the start of the year.

• Just under two-thirds (64 percent) have postponed or canceled new initiatives.

• Twenty-eight percent have contacted suppliers, landlords, or financial institutions about the need to delay payments. 

• Forty-four percent have been notified by clients that they will have difficulty paying on time. 

In spite of the negative impacts, 89 percent of the respondents were at least somewhat confident that their business “will survive this crisis and be in business a year from today.” Only 8 percent of respondents said they are “not too confident” or “not at all confident” of surviving.

A majority were also supportive of New York’s ongoing social-distancing policies. Fifty-seven percent of the CEOs said the state’s primary focus should be addressing the public-health crisis, while only 35 percent said New York should plan to relax restrictions on business operations and move towards being back in business by May 1. (Note: The survey was conducted prior to Gov. Andrew Cuomo extending the statewide restrictions on much of business and daily life to May 15.) 

“Despite having to lay off workers and downgrade economic projections, a majority of upstate CEOs agree with the sentiment expressed by one CEO: ‘people and health first, the economy can wait.’ The good news is that virtually all the CEOs we interviewed expect their business to survive this crisis. And 61 percent think that New York State’s ‘social distancing’ efforts, including restrictions on business operations in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 have been about right,” SCRI Director Dr. Don Levy said in a release summarizing the findings.

The survey results showed that optimism regarding state assistance was mixed. Forty-six percent were confident that “New York State government will take the appropriate steps to assist businesses to weather the impacts of COVID-19,” while 50 percent were “not very” or “not at all” confident. 

Confidence was higher in the federal government, with 59 percent saying they were “somewhat” or “very” confident that the federal government would take the appropriate steps to assist New York businesses.

Eighty-six percent said they were at least somewhat familiar with the new and expanded U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) loan provisions. Almost three-quarters (72 percent) planned to participate in the SBA Paycheck Protection Program and 26 percent said they planned to partake in the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program.

The survey was sponsored by the Business Council of New York State, the Greater Binghamton Chamber of Commerce, CenterStateCEO, and the Buffalo Niagara Partnership. 

“The results of this poll showed what many expected; businesses are hurting, especially smaller businesses and those in sectors whose operations have been most impacted by the reasonable state-imposed restrictions. Perhaps the most encouraging result showed employers expect their own companies and their industry sectors to recover by early 2021,” Heather Briccetti, president and CEO of the Business Council of New York State, said in the release.

Robert Simpson, president of CenterState CEO, added, “The scale of the economic disruption we are experiencing is unprecedented. Direct business insight is critical to economic development organizations like ours as we work to assess, respond and mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in New York state. Additional survey details, including cross-tabs and frequencies are available at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI.