Siena: Wall Street, job reports propel Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment

Stock-market gains and improving job-growth numbers are among the factors that have New York state consumers feeling better about spending as the holiday-shopping season continues. 

That’s according to an analyst who oversees the measurement of consumer sentiment at Siena College in Loudonville.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 77.5 in November, up 9.2 points from the last reading in July, according to the latest survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Dec. 8.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York plummeted 8.2 points to 68.3 in July, according to a Siena survey released Aug. 6. 

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 77.5 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 81.9 increased 4.6 points from July, while the future-sentiment level rose 12.2 at 74.7, according to the SRI data.

Upstate’s overall sentiment was 6.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 84.0, which rose 10.5 points compared to July, SRI said.

New York state’s consumer-sentiment index was 4.8 points lower than the November figure of 88.8 for the entire nation, which rose 12.8 points from July, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

Four factors were in consumers’ favor since the summer, says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“The stock market is hitting record highs. The job reports are good. [In] November, we [added] over 300,000 jobs. Housing prices have stabilized to some extent,” says Lonnstrom.

But the “big” issue in the upstate New York area, he notes, is the drop in gas prices.

“All four of those things are making the consumer feel better right now,” he added.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 84.0 is up 6.7 points from November 2013; up 4.6 points compared to November 2012, and has increased 21.8 points compared to November 2011, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 65.1 in November 2009.

In November, buying plans were up 1.8 percentage points since the July measurement at 13.6 percent for cars and trucks; up 10.5 points at 44.6 percent for consumer electronics; up 4.1 points to 23.8 percent for furniture; and up 2.5 points to 6.8 percent for homes. 

“That’s a big number for home-buying because you don’t buy a home every six months … If that proves true, that could have a nice ripple effect on the economy,” says Lonnstrom.

Buying plans were down 5.2 points to 15.7 percent for major home improvements, according to the SRI data. 

Lonnstrom tells the Business Journal News Network that SRI will conduct surveys to measure consumer sentiment in New York on a quarterly basis following a budget review. It had conducted the surveys monthly from their inception in 1999.

Gas and food prices
In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 48 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 59 percent in July and 65 percent in June.

In addition, 41 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 51 percent in July and 54 percent in June, according to SRI.

When gas prices were hovering around $4 per gallon, about 7 in 10 New Yorkers were expressing concern about those prices on their budgets.

“So that’s a dramatic improvement,” says Lonnstrom. 

When asked about food prices, 71 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 68 percent in July but down from 73 percent in June.

At the same time, 69 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of food, up 2 percentage points from July and down 1 percentage point from June.

The percentage of respondents concerned about food prices has remained consistent for much of 2014, according to the SRI data.

“Food has so many different products, some are up, some are down. [It’s] hard to measure that. And food prices have not dropped like gas prices have,” Lonnstrom noted.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in November by random telephone calls to 809 New York residents over the age of 18. 

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply. 

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, SRI said.        

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

Stock-market gains and improving job-growth numbers are among the factors that have New York state consumers feeling better about spending as the holiday-shopping season continues. 

That’s according to an analyst who oversees the measurement of consumer sentiment at Siena College in Loudonville.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 77.5 in November, up 9.2 points from the last reading in July, according to the latest survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Dec. 8.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York plummeted 8.2 points to 68.3 in July, according to a Siena survey released Aug. 6. 

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 77.5 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 81.9 increased 4.6 points from July, while the future-sentiment level rose 12.2 at 74.7, according to the SRI data.

Upstate’s overall sentiment was 6.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 84.0, which rose 10.5 points compared to July, SRI said.

New York state’s consumer-sentiment index was 4.8 points lower than the November figure of 88.8 for the entire nation, which rose 12.8 points from July, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

Four factors were in consumers’ favor since the summer, says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“The stock market is hitting record highs. The job reports are good. [In] November, we [added] over 300,000 jobs. Housing prices have stabilized to some extent,” says Lonnstrom.

But the “big” issue in the upstate New York area, he notes, is the drop in gas prices.

“All four of those things are making the consumer feel better right now,” he added.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 84.0 is up 6.7 points from November 2013; up 4.6 points compared to November 2012, and has increased 21.8 points compared to November 2011, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 65.1 in November 2009.

In November, buying plans were up 1.8 percentage points since the July measurement at 13.6 percent for cars and trucks; up 10.5 points at 44.6 percent for consumer electronics; up 4.1 points to 23.8 percent for furniture; and up 2.5 points to 6.8 percent for homes. 

“That’s a big number for home-buying because you don’t buy a home every six months … If that proves true, that could have a nice ripple effect on the economy,” says Lonnstrom.

Buying plans were down 5.2 points to 15.7 percent for major home improvements, according to the SRI data. 

Lonnstrom tells the Business Journal News Network that SRI will conduct surveys to measure consumer sentiment in New York on a quarterly basis following a budget review. It had conducted the surveys monthly from their inception in 1999.

Gas and food prices
In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 48 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 59 percent in July and 65 percent in June.

In addition, 41 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 51 percent in July and 54 percent in June, according to SRI.

When gas prices were hovering around $4 per gallon, about 7 in 10 New Yorkers were expressing concern about those prices on their budgets.

“So that’s a dramatic improvement,” says Lonnstrom. 

When asked about food prices, 71 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 68 percent in July but down from 73 percent in June.

At the same time, 69 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of food, up 2 percentage points from July and down 1 percentage point from June.

The percentage of respondents concerned about food prices has remained consistent for much of 2014, according to the SRI data.

“Food has so many different products, some are up, some are down. [It’s] hard to measure that. And food prices have not dropped like gas prices have,” Lonnstrom noted.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in November by random telephone calls to 809 New York residents over the age of 18. 

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply. 

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, SRI said.        

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com