LOUDONVILLE — Siena College’s survey director says he was a “little bit surprised” at the figures in the latest quarterly measurement of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 84.9 in September, down 0.3 points from the last measurement in June. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey […]
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LOUDONVILLE — Siena College’s survey director says he was a “little bit surprised” at the figures in the latest quarterly measurement of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 84.9 in September, down 0.3 points from the last measurement in June.
That’s according to the latest quarterly survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released on Oct. 6.
Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, says he was surprised at the survey’s sentiment numbers “because of all the negative world news and the negative political campaign.”
“I thought that might be wearing on consumers, and I thought confidence might go down a little bit, and it really didn’t,” says Lonnstrom.
The June measurement of 85.2 was up 3.4 points from the previous measurement in March of 81.8.
Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 84.9 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 92.8 (96.2) increased 3.4 points in the quarter, while the future-sentiment level rose 1.7 points to 79.8, according to the SRI data.
Upstate’s overall sentiment was 3.7 below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 88.6, which rose 0.6 points compared to June.
The figure was 2.6 points lower than the September reading of 91.2 for the entire nation, which fell 2.3 points from June, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
In September, buying plans were up 0.5 points since the June 2016 measurement to 18.1 percent for cars and trucks; up 4.5 points to 47.6 percent for consumer electronics; and up 0.7 points to 9.1 percent for homes. Buying plans were down 3.5 points to 31 percent for furniture; and down 5.8 points to 16.1 percent for major home improvements.
Lonnstrom was also surprised by respondents who had plans to buy consumer electronics.
“We’re talking about TVs, tablets, the high-tech stuff … up almost 50 percent heading into the holiday season, so I think that bodes well for those products,” he adds.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 30 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, down from 36 percent in June and the same as the measurement in March.
In addition, 29 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, down from 33 percent in June but up from 27 percent in March.
“Gas prices have stayed fairly stable. We’re down in the low 2-dollar [range per gallon]. People are feeling much, much better about those gas prices right now,” says Lonnstrom.
When asked about food prices, 59 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 61 percent in June and the same as the measurement in March.
At the same time, 63 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious effect on their monthly finances, up from 61 percent in June and 60 percent in March.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com