Quarterly consumer sentiment falls in all New York regions in Q1

Overall consumer sentiment declined in all major regions of New York state in the first quarter of 2013, according to results of the latest quarterly survey of nine metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the state issued by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) on April 10.

In the first three months of the year, consumer sentiment fell 7.6 points to 60.6 in the Utica–Rome region, dipped 2.6 points to 71.6 in the Syracuse area, and declined 6.2 points to 66.4 in the Binghamton region, compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.  

The Long Island region recorded the smallest decrease at a single point, and the Rochester MSA’s sentiment fell 7.7 points, representing the largest confidence decline during the quarter, according to the SRI data.

At 60.6, the Utica–Rome region had the lowest overall consumer sentiment of the nine regions, and the New York City area had the highest confidence at 82.4. Current sentiment decreased in six regions, and future sentiment fell in all MSAs.

An MSA is a core, urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting patterns, according to SRI.

Even though the first quarter included new trading highs in the stock market and an improved housing market nationwide, it also included “fairly gloomy economic news,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“The jobs reports are not robust, the numbers are still not there; one out of five people is still worried about losing their job, so that’s hanging over everybody’s head,” Lonnstrom says.

He also noted the budget battle in Washington and the federal sequester budget cuts are still making headlines, which doesn’t help to inspire consumer confidence, he adds.

“The economists are not predicting great growth for this year, or even in the next year, and people are aware of that,” Lonnstrom says.

Consumers are also keeping their eyes on gas and food prices, and even though Wall Street and the housing market performed well in the first quarter, Lonnstrom believes it wasn’t enough to overcome the negative news.

He adds that it’s not surprising that future consumer sentiment slipped in all nine MSAs across New York.

 “People are just looking forward and not seeing a lot of good news out there that they think things are going to get better,” Lonnstrom says.

The intent of the consumer-sentiment index is to measure people’s willingness to spend, as opposed to their ability to spend, SRI says. This data reports consumer confidence for the first  quarter by MSA and should not be confused with SRI’s monthly New York index.

While consumer sentiment is reported as an index number, the buying-plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months.

Of the 45 buying plans possible across the nine MSAs, 12 increased in the first quarter and 32 decreased, according to SRI.

In the Syracuse MSA, buying plans were up 3.3 points to 18.3 percent for major home improvements, increased 1 point to 11.2 for cars and trucks, and edged up 0.2 points to 2.4 percent for homes. Buying plans declined 1.9 points to 10.2 percent for computers and fell 1.5 points to 15.4 percent for furniture.

In the Utica–Rome MSA, buying plans declined 5.6 points to 13.9 percent for major home improvements, fell 4.6 points to 10 percent for furniture, decreased 4.6 points to 8.3 percent for computers, declined 3.6 points to 10 percent for cars and trucks, and fell 2.1 points to 1.5 percent for homes.

In the Binghamton MSA, buying plans fell 7.7 points 6.6 percent for cars and trucks, declined 5 points to 11.7 percent for furniture, decreased 4.5 points to 14.4 percent for major home improvements, fell 2.6 points to 8.8 percent for computers, and declined 1.2 points to 2 percent for homes.

SRI conducted the quarterly consumer-sentiment survey by random telephone calls to more than 400 respondents over the age of 18 in all of the MSAs, except for New York City and Long Island, which are based on an average of SRI’s monthly consumer-sentiment surveys.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

Overall consumer sentiment declined in all major regions of New York state in the first quarter of 2013, according to results of the latest quarterly survey of nine metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the state issued by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) on April 10.

In the first three months of the year, consumer sentiment fell 7.6 points to 60.6 in the Utica–Rome region, dipped 2.6 points to 71.6 in the Syracuse area, and declined 6.2 points to 66.4 in the Binghamton region, compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.  

The Long Island region recorded the smallest decrease at a single point, and the Rochester MSA’s sentiment fell 7.7 points, representing the largest confidence decline during the quarter, according to the SRI data.

At 60.6, the Utica–Rome region had the lowest overall consumer sentiment of the nine regions, and the New York City area had the highest confidence at 82.4. Current sentiment decreased in six regions, and future sentiment fell in all MSAs.

An MSA is a core, urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting patterns, according to SRI.

Even though the first quarter included new trading highs in the stock market and an improved housing market nationwide, it also included “fairly gloomy economic news,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“The jobs reports are not robust, the numbers are still not there; one out of five people is still worried about losing their job, so that’s hanging over everybody’s head,” Lonnstrom says.

He also noted the budget battle in Washington and the federal sequester budget cuts are still making headlines, which doesn’t help to inspire consumer confidence, he adds.

“The economists are not predicting great growth for this year, or even in the next year, and people are aware of that,” Lonnstrom says.

Consumers are also keeping their eyes on gas and food prices, and even though Wall Street and the housing market performed well in the first quarter, Lonnstrom believes it wasn’t enough to overcome the negative news.

He adds that it’s not surprising that future consumer sentiment slipped in all nine MSAs across New York.

 “People are just looking forward and not seeing a lot of good news out there that they think things are going to get better,” Lonnstrom says.

The intent of the consumer-sentiment index is to measure people’s willingness to spend, as opposed to their ability to spend, SRI says. This data reports consumer confidence for the first  quarter by MSA and should not be confused with SRI’s monthly New York index.

While consumer sentiment is reported as an index number, the buying-plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months.

Of the 45 buying plans possible across the nine MSAs, 12 increased in the first quarter and 32 decreased, according to SRI.

In the Syracuse MSA, buying plans were up 3.3 points to 18.3 percent for major home improvements, increased 1 point to 11.2 for cars and trucks, and edged up 0.2 points to 2.4 percent for homes. Buying plans declined 1.9 points to 10.2 percent for computers and fell 1.5 points to 15.4 percent for furniture.

In the Utica–Rome MSA, buying plans declined 5.6 points to 13.9 percent for major home improvements, fell 4.6 points to 10 percent for furniture, decreased 4.6 points to 8.3 percent for computers, declined 3.6 points to 10 percent for cars and trucks, and fell 2.1 points to 1.5 percent for homes.

In the Binghamton MSA, buying plans fell 7.7 points 6.6 percent for cars and trucks, declined 5 points to 11.7 percent for furniture, decreased 4.5 points to 14.4 percent for major home improvements, fell 2.6 points to 8.8 percent for computers, and declined 1.2 points to 2 percent for homes.

SRI conducted the quarterly consumer-sentiment survey by random telephone calls to more than 400 respondents over the age of 18 in all of the MSAs, except for New York City and Long Island, which are based on an average of SRI’s monthly consumer-sentiment surveys.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com