The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Research Foundation recently released an updated study showing what it says are the “significant number of jobs” that will be lost by the national health-insurance tax (HIT) that is part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
Using independent cost estimates, the Research Foundation’s BSIM (business-size impact module) predicts the rise in cost of employer-sponsored insurance stemming from the HIT will result in a reduction in private-sector employment of 152,000 to 286,000 jobs by 2023, with 57 percent of the job losses occurring at small businesses.
This will amount to a reduction of U.S. real output (sales) by between $20 billion and $33 billion during the same period, the NFIB Research Foundation estimates.
A similar study released in 2012 predicted a loss of 146,000 to 262,000 jobs and $19 billion to $35 billion in sales by 2022.
“The HIT represents a new tax on small business that raises insurance costs for an already struggling Main Street and is contrary to the goals of health care reform,” Amanda Austin, NFIB director of federal public policy, said in a news release.. “Singling out job creators for tax increases makes no sense for our economy, is short-sighted and wrong for our nation’s growth. NFIB will continue to highlight the very real and negative effects the HIT will have on small businesses and everyday Americans as we work to pass bipartisan legislation to repeal the HIT.”
The BSIM is a multi-region forecasting model that analyzes the impact of policy “shocks” on the economy and is unique in ability among models to forecast the economic impact of such policy on U.S. businesses differentiated by size of the firm, the NFIB Research Foundation contends. For this purpose, the BSIM adhered to the Small Business Administration definition of “small business” as a firm with fewer than 500 employees.
- Nationally: 152,000 to 286,000 jobs lost and $20 billion to $33 billion in lost sales
- California: 23,000 jobs gone by 2023, costing $4 billion in sales for California small business
- Colorado: 4,100 jobs eliminated by 2023; $870 million in sales lost for Colorado small business
- Florida: 9,700 jobs lost by 2023, costing $1.2 billion in sales for Florida small business
- Illinois: 5,500 jobs gone by 2023; $1 billion in sales lost for Illinois small business
- Massachusetts: 1,500 jobs eliminated by 2023, costing $450 million in sales for Massachusetts small business
- New Jersey: 2,000 jobs lost by 2023; $380 million in sales lost for New Jersey small business
- New York: 2,800 jobs gone by 2023, costing $630 million in sales for New York small business
- Ohio: 5,900 jobs eliminated by 2023; $1 billion is sales lost for Ohio small business
- Pennsylvania: 4,700 jobs gone by 2023; $790 million in sales lost for Pennsylvania small business
- Texas: 14,500 jobs lost by 2023, costing $2.5 billion in sales for Texas small business
- West Virginia: 2,200 jobs lost by 2023; $230 million in sales lost for West Virginia small business
The NFIB Research Foundation says it is a Washington, D.C.–based 501(c)(3) education and charitable organization affiliated with the NFIB, founded to promote a greater understanding of small businesses and the conditions that impact them. The Foundation says it produces and disseminates various surveys and studies on small business, focusing on areas related to public policy’s effects.