Consumer sentiment rises

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose to 81.9 in March, from 77.5 in the last measurement in November.

That’s according to the latest survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released April 8.

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 81.9 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 90.6 increased 8.7 points from November, while the future-sentiment level rose 1.7 at 76.4, according to the SRI data.

The nearly 9-point jump in the upstate current sentiment is a “dramatic increase,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

Upstate’s overall sentiment was 4.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 86.4, which rose 2.4 points compared to November, SRI said.

New York’s current-sentiment level, at 91.3, represents an eight-year high, according to SRI.

“It sounds dramatic [but] it’s coming off very low figures,” says Lonnstrom.

Lonnstrom believes gas prices drove the increase in the current component of the statewide and upstate-sentiment reading.

“If we go back a year ago, 57 percent of New Yorkers felt gas prices were having a negative impact on their family budget. That’s now down to 37 percent,” says Lonnstrom.

He called the 20 percent drop “incredible,” which he believes was reflected in the upstate sentiment figures.

Lonnstrom also points to other pieces of “good news” during the first quarter, including the stock market’s performance, the economic forecasts have been “fairly positive,” and the job market, though “a little weak” last month, has generally been “on the positive side” as well.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 86.4 is up 12.5 points from March 2014; up 11.9 points from March 2013; and has increased 10.1 points from March 2012, according to SRI data. The sentiment index measured 59.7 in March 2009, SRI said.

In March, statewide respondents’ buying plans rose 5.3 points to 18.9 percent for cars and trucks; edged up 1.3 points to 8.1 percent for homes; and increased 3.9 points to 19.6 percent for major home improvements. 

Lonnstrom called the buying-plan figures for cars and homes “outstanding.”

“We’ve got one out of five New Yorkers planning to buy a car or truck in the next six months. That’s pretty dramatic,” he says.

Consumers don’t buy homes every six months, but one out of 12 New Yorkers are planning to buy a home, and one out of five are planning to make home improvements.

“It looks like they’re going to improve their homes so they can sell [them] and buy another one,” says Lonnstrom with a chuckle.

Buying plans were down 4 points to 40.6 percent for consumer electronics; and decreased 1.3 points to 22.5 percent for furniture.

The March measurements for buying plans are in comparison to the measurements last taken in November, SRI said. 

Lonnstrom in November told CNYBJ that SRI will conduct surveys to measure consumer sentiment in New York on a quarterly basis following a budget review. It had conducted the surveys monthly since their inception in 1999.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s analysis of gas and food prices, 48 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is the same as the last measurement in November and down from 59 percent in July.

In addition, 37 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 41 percent in November and 51 percent in July 2014, according to SRI.

When asked about food prices, 66 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 71 percent in November and 68 percent in July of last year.

At the same time, 64 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of food, down 5 percentage points from November and down 3 percentage points from July, according to the SRI data.

Unlike the gas concern, the food-price concern focuses on several different products, says Lonnstrom.

“One may go up, one may go down. You go to the supermarket, you’re walking out of there with 50 different items,” he says.

Gas is one product that people purchase maybe once or twice per week, so consumers see the effect of price fluctuations.

“Even if there was a decline in food prices, it takes … longer to work through the food chain, whereas gas prices are kind of an instant thing,” he adds.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in March by random telephone calls to 804 New York residents over the age of 18. 

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI said.

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, SRI said.         

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose to 81.9 in March, from 77.5 in the last measurement in November.

That’s according to the latest survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released April 8.

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 81.9 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 90.6 increased 8.7 points from November, while the future-sentiment level rose 1.7 at 76.4, according to the SRI data.

The nearly 9-point jump in the upstate current sentiment is a “dramatic increase,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

Upstate’s overall sentiment was 4.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 86.4, which rose 2.4 points compared to November, SRI said.

New York’s current-sentiment level, at 91.3, represents an eight-year high, according to SRI.

“It sounds dramatic [but] it’s coming off very low figures,” says Lonnstrom.

Lonnstrom believes gas prices drove the increase in the current component of the statewide and upstate-sentiment reading.

“If we go back a year ago, 57 percent of New Yorkers felt gas prices were having a negative impact on their family budget. That’s now down to 37 percent,” says Lonnstrom.

He called the 20 percent drop “incredible,” which he believes was reflected in the upstate sentiment figures.

Lonnstrom also points to other pieces of “good news” during the first quarter, including the stock market’s performance, the economic forecasts have been “fairly positive,” and the job market, though “a little weak” last month, has generally been “on the positive side” as well.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 86.4 is up 12.5 points from March 2014; up 11.9 points from March 2013; and has increased 10.1 points from March 2012, according to SRI data. The sentiment index measured 59.7 in March 2009, SRI said.

In March, statewide respondents’ buying plans rose 5.3 points to 18.9 percent for cars and trucks; edged up 1.3 points to 8.1 percent for homes; and increased 3.9 points to 19.6 percent for major home improvements. 

Lonnstrom called the buying-plan figures for cars and homes “outstanding.”

“We’ve got one out of five New Yorkers planning to buy a car or truck in the next six months. That’s pretty dramatic,” he says.

Consumers don’t buy homes every six months, but one out of 12 New Yorkers are planning to buy a home, and one out of five are planning to make home improvements.

“It looks like they’re going to improve their homes so they can sell [them] and buy another one,” says Lonnstrom with a chuckle.

Buying plans were down 4 points to 40.6 percent for consumer electronics; and decreased 1.3 points to 22.5 percent for furniture.

The March measurements for buying plans are in comparison to the measurements last taken in November, SRI said. 

Lonnstrom in November told CNYBJ that SRI will conduct surveys to measure consumer sentiment in New York on a quarterly basis following a budget review. It had conducted the surveys monthly since their inception in 1999.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s analysis of gas and food prices, 48 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is the same as the last measurement in November and down from 59 percent in July.

In addition, 37 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 41 percent in November and 51 percent in July 2014, according to SRI.

When asked about food prices, 66 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 71 percent in November and 68 percent in July of last year.

At the same time, 64 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of food, down 5 percentage points from November and down 3 percentage points from July, according to the SRI data.

Unlike the gas concern, the food-price concern focuses on several different products, says Lonnstrom.

“One may go up, one may go down. You go to the supermarket, you’re walking out of there with 50 different items,” he says.

Gas is one product that people purchase maybe once or twice per week, so consumers see the effect of price fluctuations.

“Even if there was a decline in food prices, it takes … longer to work through the food chain, whereas gas prices are kind of an instant thing,” he adds.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in March by random telephone calls to 804 New York residents over the age of 18. 

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI said.

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, SRI said.