Quarterly confidence gains in all New York regions Consumers’ willingness to spend rose sharply in the Syracuse metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the first quarter of 2012, keeping pace with New York State’s other cities, where consumers also became more likely to crack open their wallets. The Syracuse MSA’s overall Quarterly Consumer Confidence […]
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Quarterly confidence gains in all New York regions
Consumers’ willingness to spend rose sharply in the Syracuse metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the first quarter of 2012, keeping pace with New York State’s other cities, where consumers also became more likely to crack open their wallets.
The Syracuse MSA’s overall Quarterly Consumer Confidence Index jumped 10.7 points to 71.3, according to a survey conducted by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Consumer confidence increased in each of New York’s nine MSAs in the year’s first quarter.
The quarterly results, issued on April 11, came a week after SRI’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index showed that confidence fell in upstate New York during the month of March. The two indexes can show confidence levels heading in opposite directions because they come from different sets of consumers, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.
“The monthly index takes into account what’s happening all over the state,” he says. “The quarterly index takes into account just what’s happening in the nine major urban areas. Generally speaking, confidence is higher in the urban areas than it is in the rural areas.”
It is also important to remember that the quarterly survey covers a three-month span, according to Lonnstrom. So one month of sliding confidence — March — does not necessarily send the quarterly indexes into a tailspin.
“The first quarter, if we look at it, was pretty good,” Lonnstrom says. “The stock market had a great first quarter. The job market looked better. Psychologically, there was less negative news.”
Syracuse’s overall first-quarter consumer confidence of 71.3 slotted below the SRI index’s break–even point of 76.01. Index results above 76.01 indicate more consumers are optimistic than pessimistic, while results below 76.01 mean more consumers are pessimistic.
Two MSAs, New York City and Rochester, moved above the quarterly index’s break-even point. In New York City, consumer confidence jumped 15.4 points to 81.5. In Rochester, it climbed 6.9 points to 77.6.
The Utica MSA posted a confidence boost of 12.1 points in the first quarter, giving it an overall index of 68.3. In Binghamton, confidence swelled 9.1 points to 65.9.
Confidence in Albany rose 12.6 points to 75.3, and confidence on Long Island climbed 10.3 points to 73.1. The Mid-Hudson MSA’s confidence ticked up 8.5 points to 68.8, and the Buffalo region’s confidence ascended 6.2 points to 70.8.
SRI made random telephone calls to adults over the age of 18 to conduct the quarterly survey. Each MSA index is based on more than 400 respondents, except for New York City and Long Island. SRI averages results from its monthly consumer-confidence surveys to develop quarterly indexes for New York City and Long Island.
Current and future confidence
Syracuse’s increased first-quarter confidence came as the region’s current and future confidence also rose. SRI gauges overall confidence by combining current and future-confidence measurements.
Current confidence in Syracuse spiked 11 points to 76.6. Future confidence ballooned 10.5 points to 67.9.
In Utica, current confidence jumped 11.3 points to 73.9. Future confidence in the area rose 12.6 points to 64.7.
And in Binghamton, current confidence gained 6.5 points to 69.4. Future confidence rose 10.9 points to 63.7.
Buying plans
SRI also asked consumers in each of the state’s nine MSAs whether they plan to buy a car or truck, a computer, furniture, a home, or a major home improvement in the next six months.
The portion of survey respondents planning to make a purchase increased in 34 of the 45 possible categories across the state. It fell in the remaining 11 categories.
Buying plans typically rise as consumer confidence climbs, Lonnstrom says.
“It’s a cycle,” he says. “If people become more confident, they tend to spend more.”
In the Syracuse MSA, consumers increased their plans to purchase cars and trucks, furniture, and major home improvements.
They cut back on plans to buy computers and homes. SRI found that 13.9 percent of consumers plan to buy a car or truck in the next six months, an increase of 3.7 points from survey readings in the fourth quarter of 2011. That is also above the survey’s historical average, which shows 12.8 percent of consumers typically plan to buy cars or trucks.
And 15.1 percent of Syracuse consumers expect to buy furniture, up 4.4 points from the previous quarter and above the survey’s historical average of 14.9 percent. For major home improvements, 15.5 percent of Syracuse consumers plan a purchase, up 1.9 points from the previous quarterly survey but below the historical average of 19.6 percent.
Just 2.8 percent of Syracuse consumers plan home purchases, SRI found. That’s a dip of 0.1 points from the last quarterly survey and below the historical average of 3.6 percent.
Finally, 11.8 percent of consumers plan to buy computers, down 1.8 points from last month. However, that’s still above the survey’s historical average of 10.6 percent.
“Even the buying plans that were down weren’t down much,” Lonnstrom says. “It certainly [was] a very positive quarter.”
