Central New York’s quarterly consumer sentiment falls in Q3

Overall-consumer sentiment decreased in the Syracuse, Utica–Rome, and Binghamton areas in the third quarter of 2013, according to the latest quarterly survey of nine metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the state by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Oct. 9.

The consumer-sentiment figure declined in all metro areas, except Buffalo, where quarterly sentiment inched up 0.6 points to 73.8 during the third quarter, according to SRI.

Consumer sentiment in the Syracuse area fell 3.4 points to 73.6, which ranked fifth among the nine areas surveyed.

The sentiment figure in the Utica–Rome area dropped 4.8 points during the third quarter to 63.4, representing the lowest sentiment figure among the nine MSAs surveyed, according to the SRI data.

Consumer sentiment in the Binghamton area came in at 66.4, which was down 1.5 points in the third quarter and the second lowest among the nine regions.

At 79.6, the New York City MSA posted the highest overall-consumer sentiment in the third quarter.

An MSA is a core, urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting patterns, according to SRI.

The top five MSAs, New York City, Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse are “all tightly bunched within a few points of each other, all very close to the break-even point where optimism equals pessimism,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

It was a quarter that started with a fair amount of optimism, he adds.

“The stock market had done well the first half of the year. The housing market was showing signs of coming to life. The job market, while it wasn’t robust, was at least growing. It wasn’t shrinking,” Lonnstrom says.

However, in September, consumers started hearing about the government shutdown, and the concern about nation’s debt ceiling and the potential inability to pay the nation’s bills.

 “So we went from some optimism in the beginning of the quarter to pessimism at the end of the quarter, and as a result, I think there was a lot of uncertainty out there for the consumer,” Lonnstrom says.

Of the 27 indexes measured in the survey — including the overall, current, and future-sentiment components in all nine MSAs — 24 were down, according to the SRI data.

With the future-sentiment indexes down in all regions of New York, what could that mean for the upcoming holiday shopping season?

“Right now, if I had to guess, I don’t see a really strong holiday-buying season,” Lonnstrom says.

When compared to the same quarter a year ago, the Syracuse overall-sentiment figure of 73.6 is up 5.6 points from the 68 figure in 2012, according to the SRI data. At the same time, the Utica–Rome figure of 63.4 is up 1 point from the 62.4 number registered a year ago, and the Binghamton figure of 66.4 is up less than one point, according to the SRI data.

“Syracuse area is up six points from where [it was] a year ago, and that’s probably one of the better increases [in this survey],” Lonnstrom says.

As for the Utica–Rome MSA, which ranked last among the MSAs in overall consumer sentiment, the region tumbled into the “economic cellar,” Lonnstrom says.

“The good news is the only place they can go is up,” he adds.

The intent of the consumer-confidence index is to measure people’s willingness to spend, as opposed to their ability to spend, SRI says. This data reports consumer confidence for the second quarter by MSA and should not be confused with SRI’s monthly New York index.

Buying plans

While consumer confidence is reported as an index number, the buying-plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months.

Of the 36 decisions possible across the nine MSAs, 20 increased in the third quarter, 16 decreased, according to SRI.

As it has done with its monthly consumer-sentiment surveys, SRI has replaced the computer category with consumer electronics for the first time in this survey.

In the Syracuse MSA, buying plans were up 1.4 points to 17.8 percent for major home improvements, rose 1 point to 2.7 percent for homes, inched up 0.2 points to 15.4 percent for furniture. Buying plans declined 3.3 points to 9.5 percent for cars and trucks.

The survey also found 25 percent of Syracuse MSA respondents had buying plans for consumer electronics in the third quarter.

In the Utica–Rome MSA, buying plans increased 2.2 points to 14.2 percent for furniture and increased 0.9 points to 3.1 percent for homes. Buying plans declined 1.5 points to 9 percent for cars and trucks and fell 1.4 points to 14.9 percent for major home improvements.

Nearly 24 percent of respondents in the Utica–Rome MSA had plans to purchase consumer electronics in the third quarter, according to the SRI data.

In the Binghamton MSA, buying plans rose 1.4 points to 4.1 percent for homes. Buying plans declined 1.7 points to 9 percent for cars and trucks, fell 1.3 points to 12 percent for furniture, and decreased 2.3 points to 14.9 percent for major home improvements.

The survey also found nearly 25 percent of respondents in the Binghamton MSA had plans to purchase consumer electronics, SRI said.

SRI conducted the quarterly consumer-sentiment survey by random telephone calls to more than 400 respondents over the age of 18 in all of the MSAs, except for New York City and Long Island, which are based on an average of SRI’s monthly consumer-confidence surveys.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

Overall-consumer sentiment decreased in the Syracuse, Utica–Rome, and Binghamton areas in the third quarter of 2013, according to the latest quarterly survey of nine metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the state by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Oct. 9.

The consumer-sentiment figure declined in all metro areas, except Buffalo, where quarterly sentiment inched up 0.6 points to 73.8 during the third quarter, according to SRI.

Consumer sentiment in the Syracuse area fell 3.4 points to 73.6, which ranked fifth among the nine areas surveyed.

The sentiment figure in the Utica–Rome area dropped 4.8 points during the third quarter to 63.4, representing the lowest sentiment figure among the nine MSAs surveyed, according to the SRI data.

Consumer sentiment in the Binghamton area came in at 66.4, which was down 1.5 points in the third quarter and the second lowest among the nine regions.

At 79.6, the New York City MSA posted the highest overall-consumer sentiment in the third quarter.

An MSA is a core, urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting patterns, according to SRI.

The top five MSAs, New York City, Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse are “all tightly bunched within a few points of each other, all very close to the break-even point where optimism equals pessimism,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

It was a quarter that started with a fair amount of optimism, he adds.

“The stock market had done well the first half of the year. The housing market was showing signs of coming to life. The job market, while it wasn’t robust, was at least growing. It wasn’t shrinking,” Lonnstrom says.

However, in September, consumers started hearing about the government shutdown, and the concern about nation’s debt ceiling and the potential inability to pay the nation’s bills.

 “So we went from some optimism in the beginning of the quarter to pessimism at the end of the quarter, and as a result, I think there was a lot of uncertainty out there for the consumer,” Lonnstrom says.

Of the 27 indexes measured in the survey — including the overall, current, and future-sentiment components in all nine MSAs — 24 were down, according to the SRI data.

With the future-sentiment indexes down in all regions of New York, what could that mean for the upcoming holiday shopping season?

“Right now, if I had to guess, I don’t see a really strong holiday-buying season,” Lonnstrom says.

When compared to the same quarter a year ago, the Syracuse overall-sentiment figure of 73.6 is up 5.6 points from the 68 figure in 2012, according to the SRI data. At the same time, the Utica–Rome figure of 63.4 is up 1 point from the 62.4 number registered a year ago, and the Binghamton figure of 66.4 is up less than one point, according to the SRI data.

“Syracuse area is up six points from where [it was] a year ago, and that’s probably one of the better increases [in this survey],” Lonnstrom says.

As for the Utica–Rome MSA, which ranked last among the MSAs in overall consumer sentiment, the region tumbled into the “economic cellar,” Lonnstrom says.

“The good news is the only place they can go is up,” he adds.

The intent of the consumer-confidence index is to measure people’s willingness to spend, as opposed to their ability to spend, SRI says. This data reports consumer confidence for the second quarter by MSA and should not be confused with SRI’s monthly New York index.

Buying plans

While consumer confidence is reported as an index number, the buying-plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months.

Of the 36 decisions possible across the nine MSAs, 20 increased in the third quarter, 16 decreased, according to SRI.

As it has done with its monthly consumer-sentiment surveys, SRI has replaced the computer category with consumer electronics for the first time in this survey.

In the Syracuse MSA, buying plans were up 1.4 points to 17.8 percent for major home improvements, rose 1 point to 2.7 percent for homes, inched up 0.2 points to 15.4 percent for furniture. Buying plans declined 3.3 points to 9.5 percent for cars and trucks.

The survey also found 25 percent of Syracuse MSA respondents had buying plans for consumer electronics in the third quarter.

In the Utica–Rome MSA, buying plans increased 2.2 points to 14.2 percent for furniture and increased 0.9 points to 3.1 percent for homes. Buying plans declined 1.5 points to 9 percent for cars and trucks and fell 1.4 points to 14.9 percent for major home improvements.

Nearly 24 percent of respondents in the Utica–Rome MSA had plans to purchase consumer electronics in the third quarter, according to the SRI data.

In the Binghamton MSA, buying plans rose 1.4 points to 4.1 percent for homes. Buying plans declined 1.7 points to 9 percent for cars and trucks, fell 1.3 points to 12 percent for furniture, and decreased 2.3 points to 14.9 percent for major home improvements.

The survey also found nearly 25 percent of respondents in the Binghamton MSA had plans to purchase consumer electronics, SRI said.

SRI conducted the quarterly consumer-sentiment survey by random telephone calls to more than 400 respondents over the age of 18 in all of the MSAs, except for New York City and Long Island, which are based on an average of SRI’s monthly consumer-confidence surveys.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com