Bank’s business leaders survey shows positive outlook for 25

SYRACUSE — Business leaders — including those in Central New York — are feeling a lot more optimistic heading in 2025 than they have in years, according to JPMorganChase’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook survey. More than half of New York state business leaders are feeling confident in the national economy as fears of an impending recession subsided, the survey showed. Those feelings carry over into Central New York, John Huhtala, market executive for middle-market banking and specialized industries at JPMorgan Chase in Syracuse, says. While less than half of businesses surveyed feel as confident in their local/regional economy, New York state business leaders are still feeling pretty bullish about the coming year, Huhtala notes. “It just continues to gain steam as far as the momentum and the optimism.” Indeed, optimism levels are at a five-year high and rival pre-COVID levels, Huhtala adds. According to the survey, 69 percent of small businesses and 71 percent of midsize businesses either don’t expect a recession this year or are uncertain about one, while 55 percent of small-business owners and 65 percent of midsize-business leaders are confident in the national economy. In New York, 60 percent of business leaders are optimistic about the national economy and 44 percent are optimistic about the local economy. However, that pessimism doesn’t extend to their specific industry or their own business. The survey showed that 60 percent of New York business leaders are confident in their industry’s performance, and 74 percent are confident in their company’s performance. Across New York state, 78 percent of survey respondents expect sales/revenue increases this year, 67 percent expect higher profits, and 49 percent expect to increase staffing. “It’s all the great things we have going on in the local economy,” that bolster confidence, Huhtala says. That doesn’t mean there still aren’t concerns. Inflation remains a top concern, even with reductions in the interest rate in 2024. Just over 80 percent of New York businesses are worried about rising costs, 27 percent are concerned with international tariffs, and 37 percent are stressing about uncertain economic conditions. About 40 percent of small businesses and 46 percent of midsize businesses say labor shortages, retention, and recruitment remain a challenge, including in Central New York. “I do feel like there is definite concern on labor and talent,” Huhtala says. The area is fortunate with many community partners and resources at work to build worker pipelines in growing employment areas like advanced manufacturing. “We do need more housing; that’s for sure,” Huhtala adds. Overall, business leaders have their eye on growth strategies whether through entering new markets or via mergers and acquisitions, he notes. More than half of small businesses plan to increase spending while 64 percent expect to invest more to support sales by adding products, funding more advertising, and increasing social-media campaigns, among other strategies. Midsize businesses are also looking to grow, with 51 percent planning to increase employment and 38 percent forecasting higher capital expenditures. That increased capital spending is likely a result of the lower interest rates, Huhtala explains. While more rate cuts are needed, a more favorable borrowing market may have companies pulling the trigger on capital projects this year, he says. “We have certainly navigated through these challenging times to land where we have,” Huhtala says. “It’s exciting for the region, it’s exciting for the country.” The full-survey findings are available at: www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/business-leaders-outlook/2025-us-business-leaders-outlook. JPMorganChase (NYSE: JPM) conducted the survey online from Nov. 11-15, 2024, for small businesses — defined in the survey as those firms generating annual revenue between $100,000 and $20 million — and from Nov. 12 to Dec. 4 for midsize businesses — defined as those with annual revenue between $20 million and $500 million. A total of 2,644 business owners and leaders participated in the survey.